US is rich due to: 1. Very high resources (oil, mineral, farm land...) per capita, 2. Welcoming immigrants (actually all are immigrants once except the few natives), and 3. Geographic location isolated itself from WW2.
US is declining, but it is still #1 in many areas by many measures.
China in last 250 years is poor due to: 1. Less resources per capita, 2. Semi colonization from the West/USA/Japan about 250 years ago, and 3. Poor governance in Mao's era. To be fair, Mao had contributed a lot to China.
Even if it may be #1 in GNP in our generation, GNP per capita which is more important to me is just the average.
Basically US is resource rich per capita. China has about 4 times the population of US, but US's arable land doubles that of China. GNP per capita has similar disparity.
It could be that a civilized nation like China, India, Greece, Egypt, and Italy has extracted too much national resources through out her long history. US has been 'discovered' and populated only in last hundreds of years. Even with limited history, US influences today's world in technology, music, movie, military... more than any of the described civilizations.
China is improving. when you compare the HSR, airports, infrastructure, you can easily see China is catching up and in many cases passes US. It is a matter of time that US will wake up and concentrate in the economy and end to be the world policeman.
China is a long way from the Tang period when Chinese had the highest living standard/culture/science compared to the rest of the world. At one time, China wore fancy clothes made in silk and lived in well-built houses while the westerners wore animal skins and lived in caves. When we do not improve, others will catch up and pass us.
China has been dominant in last 16 (some argues 17) of the last 20 centuries. For the last 3 centuries, they're down until the last 30 years, but they are waking up and will roar and shake the earth as Napoleon predicted.
Judging from the progress and the education, I do not believe it will take more than one generation for them to catch up. They also learn the tough lessons on defending themselves from foreign invadors (Brits, French, Russia... and Japan), understanding the world (missed the last industrial revolution started in Britain), governance... They also have a determination to succeed to a more prosperous country.
Along the way, they will have problems and I do not bet against them as many past problems have been fixed.
The joke of the century: the richest country (US ) borrows money from the poorest country (China at one time).
The world is getting smaller and we should achieve a better world without trying to be #1.
(c) TonyP4 2010. Written in 2/05/11. Updated in 7/10/11.
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Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
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