Buy back usually works, but not always. When the management knows their company's stock is under valued and they have cash or cheap access to, they should buy back. They're the insiders and know the company better, but statistically they tend to buy at higher prices for buybacks.
The management prefers buyback as it usually boosts the stock price and it would affect their stock option rewards. They will take care of themselves first.
Without their own agenda, they should look at what is better for an average stock holder on how to use the extra cash: plowing back to research/development, buying back, lowering debts, giving dividends... with regard to enhancing the future profit of the company and the tax treatment.
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No one knows the company better than the management (i.e. the insiders). There are many financial data you cannot find in the financial statements or they're not updated. The drug company CEOs are the first ones to know the new drug will be approved. The sales folks know a big contract is being signed. The analysts are all second guess and we'll never know until there are in the public.
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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 2/29/12. Last updated in 2/29/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Why the wealth gap widens
My theory. The world is getting smaller physically and electronically. Shipping from one country to another is less expensive and the world is connected by technologies better than before. The rich benefit from it and the jobs of the poor folks are being replaced from low-wage countries.
To illustrate, most long-time stock holders of Apple have their wealth increased. Steve Jobs had the vision of great products and how to produce them cheaply by outsourcing overseas with the technical help (40,000 technicians and engineers in China). There are many educated and hard-working programmers/engineers from India and China and also their grown-up children working in Apple here and similar high tech companies.
No longer the dropouts from high schools can sweep the floor of a GM plant and live a middle class life style. Our generous welfare system encourages its citizens to be lazy. If it means you lose your free health care when you work, you do not work. It is the viscous cycle for the next generation.
Preferential treatment on taxing the rich is debatable. Capital gain tax (sometimes already taxed on corporate income) is usually lower than wage tax. The 'gain' sometimes is a loss if you include inflation. However, the rich pay far more percentage-wise and 40% with low/no income do not pay much income tax. The rich pay sales tax more as they consume more. Estate taxes most likely only affect the rich.
Another secondary reason of the gap is inheritance though I do not know many personally. In addition, children from the rich usually have better education and connection. The living proofs are so many children of actors, fund managers, and government officials getting jobs via connections. Check the publicized jobs of the children of Bush, Clinton,... They could be the returns of favors to their parents.
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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 2/19/12. Last updated in 2/19/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
To illustrate, most long-time stock holders of Apple have their wealth increased. Steve Jobs had the vision of great products and how to produce them cheaply by outsourcing overseas with the technical help (40,000 technicians and engineers in China). There are many educated and hard-working programmers/engineers from India and China and also their grown-up children working in Apple here and similar high tech companies.
No longer the dropouts from high schools can sweep the floor of a GM plant and live a middle class life style. Our generous welfare system encourages its citizens to be lazy. If it means you lose your free health care when you work, you do not work. It is the viscous cycle for the next generation.
Preferential treatment on taxing the rich is debatable. Capital gain tax (sometimes already taxed on corporate income) is usually lower than wage tax. The 'gain' sometimes is a loss if you include inflation. However, the rich pay far more percentage-wise and 40% with low/no income do not pay much income tax. The rich pay sales tax more as they consume more. Estate taxes most likely only affect the rich.
Another secondary reason of the gap is inheritance though I do not know many personally. In addition, children from the rich usually have better education and connection. The living proofs are so many children of actors, fund managers, and government officials getting jobs via connections. Check the publicized jobs of the children of Bush, Clinton,... They could be the returns of favors to their parents.
-----
(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 2/19/12. Last updated in 2/19/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Hedge Fund 101
It could be the worst deal: 1.5% average up front and 20% on your profit.
Well, if they make you a lot of money, it is not too much to ask for. However, they risk your money by betting big recklessly. When they win, they get 20% of your profit and they use you for advertising to lure another suckers. When they lose YOUR money, they do not lose a penny. It encourages them to take big risk. I do not know any HF manager pay you back your loses.
You have better return buying SPY or other diversified ETF than an average hedge fund. For comparison, you need to add dividends, minus taxes and include those hedge funds which are out of business termed as survivor bias (and there are many and most likely due to losing big). To them, they just open another hedge fund and give you all the excuses of losing your hard-earned money. They may lose their reputation. However, memory will fad and most 'blown up' former HF managers just work for another HFs.
As of 2-2012, they do not beat SPY as a group.
Most hedge fund managers learn modern portfolio theories from Ivy League universities and apply them in the HFs. The theories are faulted.
Some use their specialty and that's fine. If they use derivatives, stay away and that's what happened to our financial crisis. If you still want to invest with them, ask their methods and historical performance. Very few HFs are good. They're the market, so it is impossible to beat the market as a group.
The owner of a famous base ball franchise lost big from his hedge fund concentrating in oil while every ETF in oil that year made good money. He stayed with the hedge fund. When they cheat you twice, shame on you.
One hedge fund has a performance of 25% every year for a long period. SEC, takes notes and investigate whether they're using insiders' info. There are few HFs giving good consistent performance beating the market. If you find some, stay with them. Otherwise, just buy SPY and have a good sleep every night instead of waiting for the black swan to wipe out your saving and/or frauds as this industry is not properly regulated.
Do not believe any papers praising how great the HFs are without knowing their credibility and their hidden agenda. Same for Hedge Fund indexes. Usually they ignore the survivor bias of the bankrupt HFs and those early exits that are many. In addition, most likely the comparing index like SP500 does not includes dividend. The short-term capital gain (better than loss though) would wipe out profits.
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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 2/19/12. Last updated in 5/9/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Well, if they make you a lot of money, it is not too much to ask for. However, they risk your money by betting big recklessly. When they win, they get 20% of your profit and they use you for advertising to lure another suckers. When they lose YOUR money, they do not lose a penny. It encourages them to take big risk. I do not know any HF manager pay you back your loses.
You have better return buying SPY or other diversified ETF than an average hedge fund. For comparison, you need to add dividends, minus taxes and include those hedge funds which are out of business termed as survivor bias (and there are many and most likely due to losing big). To them, they just open another hedge fund and give you all the excuses of losing your hard-earned money. They may lose their reputation. However, memory will fad and most 'blown up' former HF managers just work for another HFs.
As of 2-2012, they do not beat SPY as a group.
Most hedge fund managers learn modern portfolio theories from Ivy League universities and apply them in the HFs. The theories are faulted.
Some use their specialty and that's fine. If they use derivatives, stay away and that's what happened to our financial crisis. If you still want to invest with them, ask their methods and historical performance. Very few HFs are good. They're the market, so it is impossible to beat the market as a group.
The owner of a famous base ball franchise lost big from his hedge fund concentrating in oil while every ETF in oil that year made good money. He stayed with the hedge fund. When they cheat you twice, shame on you.
One hedge fund has a performance of 25% every year for a long period. SEC, takes notes and investigate whether they're using insiders' info. There are few HFs giving good consistent performance beating the market. If you find some, stay with them. Otherwise, just buy SPY and have a good sleep every night instead of waiting for the black swan to wipe out your saving and/or frauds as this industry is not properly regulated.
Do not believe any papers praising how great the HFs are without knowing their credibility and their hidden agenda. Same for Hedge Fund indexes. Usually they ignore the survivor bias of the bankrupt HFs and those early exits that are many. In addition, most likely the comparing index like SP500 does not includes dividend. The short-term capital gain (better than loss though) would wipe out profits.
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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 2/19/12. Last updated in 5/9/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Time to buy Chinese small cap?
We've been burnt by them sometimes losing 90% of them stock prices due to frauds. Is it time to return as some have recovered nicely (not the companies with frauds)? After owning several Chinese small caps and FXI, my next move when Chinese stocks fall further could be buying a mutual fund on China and let the experts handle it.
Here is from a fellow bogger on DEER:
The China small cap on space technology has been in the dog house for over a year now because of a few fraudulent companies in the space. With the passage of time, as more quarterly reports are carefully prepared and submitted, Mr Market will regain confidence and the companies will become fairly priced.
Companies within this space should be conservative with projections because if they over promise and fall short on delivering the lack of confidence will continue.
Deer management has not only met but have exceeded expectations. Despite this they have been hammered with the rest of the space. Management has been extremely aggressive taking it to the shorts but have not prevailed. They recently implemented a decent dividend to demonstrate viability but thus far this has not worked. Management owns a huge chunk of the company, a very positive item when management has skin in the game. With this in mind, though not expected, I would not be surprised if they raised the dividend to cause a little discomfort to the shorts.
I'll cotinue to collect my dividend and use a bit of it to purchase some wine while I wait for the share price to rise.
This stock will be a winner because of management and a great business model. Of course a few billion Chinese improving their lives by becoming consumers will facilitate rapid growth for our products.
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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 2/17/12. Last updated in 2/17/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Here is from a fellow bogger on DEER:
The China small cap on space technology has been in the dog house for over a year now because of a few fraudulent companies in the space. With the passage of time, as more quarterly reports are carefully prepared and submitted, Mr Market will regain confidence and the companies will become fairly priced.
Companies within this space should be conservative with projections because if they over promise and fall short on delivering the lack of confidence will continue.
Deer management has not only met but have exceeded expectations. Despite this they have been hammered with the rest of the space. Management has been extremely aggressive taking it to the shorts but have not prevailed. They recently implemented a decent dividend to demonstrate viability but thus far this has not worked. Management owns a huge chunk of the company, a very positive item when management has skin in the game. With this in mind, though not expected, I would not be surprised if they raised the dividend to cause a little discomfort to the shorts.
I'll cotinue to collect my dividend and use a bit of it to purchase some wine while I wait for the share price to rise.
This stock will be a winner because of management and a great business model. Of course a few billion Chinese improving their lives by becoming consumers will facilitate rapid growth for our products.
-------
(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 2/17/12. Last updated in 2/17/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Market timing on asset classes
1. Buy high and sell higher. When the class is no longer valued, sell.
2. Buy low and sell high. When it is totally out-of-favor and has high value, buy.
It is no possible to predict correctly the peaks and bottoms all the time. However, #1 starts first and follows by #2 usually. As in my other posts, market timing is about educated guesses.
Try out different sectors, gold, oil... No one can predict gold price at $1800 is the peak. If you buy at $1000 and ride the gold wagon to $1600, you're doing quite good. However, gold at $1000 could be the peak unless you have my time machine.
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Market timing based on calendar.
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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 2/17/12. Last updated in 2/17/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
2. Buy low and sell high. When it is totally out-of-favor and has high value, buy.
It is no possible to predict correctly the peaks and bottoms all the time. However, #1 starts first and follows by #2 usually. As in my other posts, market timing is about educated guesses.
Try out different sectors, gold, oil... No one can predict gold price at $1800 is the peak. If you buy at $1000 and ride the gold wagon to $1600, you're doing quite good. However, gold at $1000 could be the peak unless you have my time machine.
----
Market timing based on calendar.
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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 2/17/12. Last updated in 2/17/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Tariff on Chinese products
The best illustration is on the tariff on Chinese low-end tires. They are replaced by other countries like Indonesia, Thailand... at higher prices to US consumers. We do not gain a SINGLE job. It is a lose-lose situation that we're accustomed to.
Politicians take note: China is the most efficient manufacturer so far but many low-wage countries can replace China. $20 wage will never compete with $2 wage and you cannot live here in $2 per hour.
Free trade works. You do not want to grow sugar cane in Alaska. Tariff is the first step to start a trade war, which we cannot afford as China is our banker. We manipulate the currency more than Chinese by deflating it to lessen our debt burden. China just peg their currency to it and has appreciated their currency in last 5 years steadily.
Politicians take note: China is the most efficient manufacturer so far but many low-wage countries can replace China. $20 wage will never compete with $2 wage and you cannot live here in $2 per hour.
Free trade works. You do not want to grow sugar cane in Alaska. Tariff is the first step to start a trade war, which we cannot afford as China is our banker. We manipulate the currency more than Chinese by deflating it to lessen our debt burden. China just peg their currency to it and has appreciated their currency in last 5 years steadily.
Monday, February 13, 2012
My rules in playing the lottery
Unless you bought your ticket in Rhode Island, you did not win the 320 million lottery. Our family and in-laws chipped in to buy tickets. We missed 5 or 6 numbers in each tickets. Here are my rules from our mistakes.
1. You cannot play under age 30. Otherwise life will be no meaning if you win.
2. A good test esp. in Valentine Day: You ask your boy friend or girl friend whether s/he would terminate the relationship when s/he wins.
3. You should enjoy the high spirit before the drawing, so the earlier you buy the ticket, the longer you enjoy.
4. When there is a big jackpot and the winning chance is not mathematically impossible, go to the Mass. lottery office and tell them you want to buy all the possible combinations without entering them into the machine.
5.Calculation the expected value = jackpot * probability + 2nd price * probability+... and compare it to the present value of 20 installments based on 3% return and 50% tax rate (check current rates on Federal and State). If my memory is still good, $150M jackpot is a fair value. I used doing so when I worked (practicing the art of using other people's time).
6. #4 and #5 have one minor problem. If there are more than one winner, you may lose.
Now, we have the only way that guarantees it works. You ask me nicely to borrow my time machine to go several days forward to get the winning numbers and come back to present and buy one winning ticket. Somehow the time machine does not work for the owner.
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This is updated from my old blog.
1. You cannot play under age 30. Otherwise life will be no meaning if you win.
2. A good test esp. in Valentine Day: You ask your boy friend or girl friend whether s/he would terminate the relationship when s/he wins.
3. You should enjoy the high spirit before the drawing, so the earlier you buy the ticket, the longer you enjoy.
4. When there is a big jackpot and the winning chance is not mathematically impossible, go to the Mass. lottery office and tell them you want to buy all the possible combinations without entering them into the machine.
5.Calculation the expected value = jackpot * probability + 2nd price * probability+... and compare it to the present value of 20 installments based on 3% return and 50% tax rate (check current rates on Federal and State). If my memory is still good, $150M jackpot is a fair value. I used doing so when I worked (practicing the art of using other people's time).
6. #4 and #5 have one minor problem. If there are more than one winner, you may lose.
Now, we have the only way that guarantees it works. You ask me nicely to borrow my time machine to go several days forward to get the winning numbers and come back to present and buy one winning ticket. Somehow the time machine does not work for the owner.
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This is updated from my old blog.
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