Is SJ a product of the education system of last generation that encourages folks to think outside the box, to be innovative… We need one or two geniuses out of a million for these innovative products/inventions.
Hope China will have more of these geniuses and move up to higher value products and assemble our own versions of iPod, iPhone…that are invented in China.
SJ did not graduate from college, so was Bill Gates. It could be a waste of time for geniuses to go to traditional colleges. Education starts in the family and carries to high school. Well, the 3 pillars of success to me are: genes, hard working and some luck/opportunities. SJ and BG have all 3.
The environment provides important hands to nurture creativity for innovation and enterprise. Protecting intelligent properties is the key too, otherwise we just copy others’ ideas if there is no law enforcement.
China lacks such environment now but it is changing as the country develops further. China has schools for geniuses (not as established as in US) and I hope they’re admitted due to IQs instead of the wealth/power of their parents.
SJ demonstrates we can get up from failure and it could be the best opportunity in life. It is harder today to do same in China.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 9/3/11. Updated 9/3/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Market today from my crystal ball
The perfect storm with the following unknowns:
* Portugal, Spain and Italy could follow Greece. They are far larger than Greece.
Click here for detail.
* Trade war with China over currency.
Can we afford to have a trade war with China and take the risk of China pulling out their huge debt from us?
Click here for detail.
---
If one of the above two happens, we will see Dow below 9000. Otherwise it will cruise between 10,500 and 11,500.
When it goes up to 12,500, I'll sell most of my stocks as the roots of our problems have not been resolved.
If you believe we'll have a good Q3 earning announcements, year-end rally, huge cash held by corporations, and/or there are signs the wars are ending, you may want to act accordingly. I've started buying selectively and it could be the best time for a while for some stocks that have been beaten down badly.
My crystal ball is as good as yours.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 10/7/11. Updated 10/24/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
* Portugal, Spain and Italy could follow Greece. They are far larger than Greece.
Click here for detail.
* Trade war with China over currency.
Can we afford to have a trade war with China and take the risk of China pulling out their huge debt from us?
Click here for detail.
---
If one of the above two happens, we will see Dow below 9000. Otherwise it will cruise between 10,500 and 11,500.
When it goes up to 12,500, I'll sell most of my stocks as the roots of our problems have not been resolved.
If you believe we'll have a good Q3 earning announcements, year-end rally, huge cash held by corporations, and/or there are signs the wars are ending, you may want to act accordingly. I've started buying selectively and it could be the best time for a while for some stocks that have been beaten down badly.
My crystal ball is as good as yours.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 10/7/11. Updated 10/24/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
China and political systems
China has a very unique political system. You can call it socialism with Chinese characteristics or capitalism with Chinese characteristics, or whatsoever. The president appears to be the most powerful person, but a handful of members control the power and the succession of presidency.
It will be debated endlessly on the benefits and the problems of such a system. Judging from what China has done in last 30 years, we have to agree it is not a bad system. When this political party is looking for the long term of the country, we do not care how to get re-elected by buying votes to satisfy all.
Judging from the medical care system and contrary to popular belief, Canadians are communists, US are socialists, and China are capitalists.
Every one in Canada gets the same, free health care. In China, if you do not pay, you die.
China is unique in the scale and the speed of moving to a developed country. Many countries like US and China’s competitors are caught by surprise and fail to respond to the changes. China can produce a product far cheaper than from Mexico several miles away from US. China is also challenging the products of higher value in our generation and I cannot imagine what the educated, hard working Chinese kids will do when they grow up.
Singapore is very unique. It is democratic with single party, but you will be punished for not flushing the toilets (they have cameras every where). If you’re not fit, they will force you to exercise or else.
India has been democratic for many years. They are still poor, uneducated… Democratic system may not be right for countries with low literary skills. How can we weigh the vote from a farmer who cannot read and one from the educated folk in the city? Most ‘democratic’ countries in Asia are corrupt. S.Korea and Japan are not too corrupt and probably the reason is their education levels.
What I try to say is every country is different from other countries. Two democratic countries like US and India are quite different in many aspects.
Click here for "Democratic system could lead to socialism".
It will be debated endlessly on the benefits and the problems of such a system. Judging from what China has done in last 30 years, we have to agree it is not a bad system. When this political party is looking for the long term of the country, we do not care how to get re-elected by buying votes to satisfy all.
Judging from the medical care system and contrary to popular belief, Canadians are communists, US are socialists, and China are capitalists.
Every one in Canada gets the same, free health care. In China, if you do not pay, you die.
China is unique in the scale and the speed of moving to a developed country. Many countries like US and China’s competitors are caught by surprise and fail to respond to the changes. China can produce a product far cheaper than from Mexico several miles away from US. China is also challenging the products of higher value in our generation and I cannot imagine what the educated, hard working Chinese kids will do when they grow up.
Singapore is very unique. It is democratic with single party, but you will be punished for not flushing the toilets (they have cameras every where). If you’re not fit, they will force you to exercise or else.
India has been democratic for many years. They are still poor, uneducated… Democratic system may not be right for countries with low literary skills. How can we weigh the vote from a farmer who cannot read and one from the educated folk in the city? Most ‘democratic’ countries in Asia are corrupt. S.Korea and Japan are not too corrupt and probably the reason is their education levels.
What I try to say is every country is different from other countries. Two democratic countries like US and India are quite different in many aspects.
Click here for "Democratic system could lead to socialism".
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Democracy leads to socialism?
I heard more folks talking about it. It is what is happening in Greece today and to some extend in US.
The major flaw of the US political system is the re-election in 4 years. Our leaders do not plan or care about the long term. We've more poor than the rich and each has one vote. However, after they've been elected, they have to pay back to the special interest groups (such as no gun control) that have funded their campaigns. That's why democratic system always leads to corruption and self destruction.
Politicians have to watch out for the benefits/welfare of the poor in order to buy votes. The rich will migrate to other countries with less taxes, and be rewarded for their investment and taking risks. So are the corporations moving jobs and investments overseas. We have to blame ourselves as we vote to elect our leaders.
Most of the recent protesters in Wall Street belong to the unemployed and the 40% (excluding the unemployed due to our economic mess) of the citizens who pay no Federal taxes. It is some kind of taxation without representation in reverse. They should take minimal paid jobs (that are taken by illegals today), give back their entitlements... They are taking more from the society than giving back.
Greece has been illustrated this concept thoroughly. Democratic system esp. the rich ones could lead to socialism/corruption, and socialism/corruption in turn could lead to self destruction. With the world interconnected, it could lead to global recession.
Obviously non-democratic systems could also lead to socialism, which in turn could lead to capitalism with corruption too.
Click here on "China and Political Systems".
The major flaw of the US political system is the re-election in 4 years. Our leaders do not plan or care about the long term. We've more poor than the rich and each has one vote. However, after they've been elected, they have to pay back to the special interest groups (such as no gun control) that have funded their campaigns. That's why democratic system always leads to corruption and self destruction.
Politicians have to watch out for the benefits/welfare of the poor in order to buy votes. The rich will migrate to other countries with less taxes, and be rewarded for their investment and taking risks. So are the corporations moving jobs and investments overseas. We have to blame ourselves as we vote to elect our leaders.
Most of the recent protesters in Wall Street belong to the unemployed and the 40% (excluding the unemployed due to our economic mess) of the citizens who pay no Federal taxes. It is some kind of taxation without representation in reverse. They should take minimal paid jobs (that are taken by illegals today), give back their entitlements... They are taking more from the society than giving back.
Greece has been illustrated this concept thoroughly. Democratic system esp. the rich ones could lead to socialism/corruption, and socialism/corruption in turn could lead to self destruction. With the world interconnected, it could lead to global recession.
Obviously non-democratic systems could also lead to socialism, which in turn could lead to capitalism with corruption too.
Click here on "China and Political Systems".
Saturday, October 1, 2011
China's space station
First congratulations to China. It has to be supported by many high technologies, so it does polish the image of China Inc.
Besides the prestige, it is not a lot to be gained from the investment that US and Russia have found out. What do you gain from a journey to Mars? We have a lot to be done in planet earth like pollution, food, product safety/quality… Hope China will keep the space exploration to a minimum but never terminate it so we can all dream. Never use the station for military purpose.
Space exploration has no defined benefits. So are many pure research in many areas. We can learn from the history of the US space program.
* What are the new products invented due to the US space program? There are some but not profitable compared to the cost of the program.
Most technologies in consumer electronic products are invented in US, but Japan and now Korea take them to the market and benefit from them.
* Shuttle (a good program in concept but not practical in the start) and the space station is a waste of money and again which products are developed due to these two programs and how many obsolete/disabled satellites have been retrieved? US gambled too much on the shuttle program and abandoned the rocket vehicle.
* Our government just pretty much shuts down our space program. Remember it is the turtle who wins the race. Being a developing country, China could be the only country having a space station by 2020. Incredible?
Chinese are far behind from US/west in space exploration. However, if you consider this program is only about 10 years old (longer depending on how you determine the start date), the progress is astonishing, so we cannot say China is 50 years behind. Another argument is that shooting down a satellite that US could not do 50 years ago.
Although US/west do not share the technologies such as the docking with China, many components such as computer chips are more advanced than 50 years ago.
We should not start a cold war in space program with China. We still decades ahead of China. However, we're cutting funds and China is moving forward. China has not say a word on the superiority in space program. Most of us know that and Chinese know that. It will take a larger rocket to life tons of space station to space.
Many space scientists lose their jobs and their desire in fund cutting and many students lose their dreams. It is our policy keep on changing every 4 or 8 years. We've gambled too much on the shuttle and lost that's ok but not with the changing policy.
===
A good link.
===
The song is clearly American the Beautiful. It is not the first time that CCTV screws up.
===
Resume from an unemployed NASA researcher:
Years of valuable, classified experience. PhD and considered to be the top scientist in the world. Abandoned by my country due to poor management and stupid politics. Will work for peanuts in any place in this planet and beyond. Desperate, proud, dedicated, heart-broken, patriotic but confused. Screwed by my ex company's office politics, ambitious but not practical objectives, kiss-ass leadership... Reply to my broken trailer or see me, an old man with thick glasses, carrying a sign asking for a dollar in the highway leading to the Cape's deserted launch pad.
Besides the prestige, it is not a lot to be gained from the investment that US and Russia have found out. What do you gain from a journey to Mars? We have a lot to be done in planet earth like pollution, food, product safety/quality… Hope China will keep the space exploration to a minimum but never terminate it so we can all dream. Never use the station for military purpose.
Space exploration has no defined benefits. So are many pure research in many areas. We can learn from the history of the US space program.
* What are the new products invented due to the US space program? There are some but not profitable compared to the cost of the program.
Most technologies in consumer electronic products are invented in US, but Japan and now Korea take them to the market and benefit from them.
* Shuttle (a good program in concept but not practical in the start) and the space station is a waste of money and again which products are developed due to these two programs and how many obsolete/disabled satellites have been retrieved? US gambled too much on the shuttle program and abandoned the rocket vehicle.
* Our government just pretty much shuts down our space program. Remember it is the turtle who wins the race. Being a developing country, China could be the only country having a space station by 2020. Incredible?
Chinese are far behind from US/west in space exploration. However, if you consider this program is only about 10 years old (longer depending on how you determine the start date), the progress is astonishing, so we cannot say China is 50 years behind. Another argument is that shooting down a satellite that US could not do 50 years ago.
Although US/west do not share the technologies such as the docking with China, many components such as computer chips are more advanced than 50 years ago.
We should not start a cold war in space program with China. We still decades ahead of China. However, we're cutting funds and China is moving forward. China has not say a word on the superiority in space program. Most of us know that and Chinese know that. It will take a larger rocket to life tons of space station to space.
Many space scientists lose their jobs and their desire in fund cutting and many students lose their dreams. It is our policy keep on changing every 4 or 8 years. We've gambled too much on the shuttle and lost that's ok but not with the changing policy.
===
A good link.
===
The song is clearly American the Beautiful. It is not the first time that CCTV screws up.
===
Resume from an unemployed NASA researcher:
Years of valuable, classified experience. PhD and considered to be the top scientist in the world. Abandoned by my country due to poor management and stupid politics. Will work for peanuts in any place in this planet and beyond. Desperate, proud, dedicated, heart-broken, patriotic but confused. Screwed by my ex company's office politics, ambitious but not practical objectives, kiss-ass leadership... Reply to my broken trailer or see me, an old man with thick glasses, carrying a sign asking for a dollar in the highway leading to the Cape's deserted launch pad.
Monday, September 19, 2011
CROX
CROX had perfect fundamental metrics. I bought some, and then it went about 25% down. I bought some more and it went down another 25%. I bought more and finally it went up 100%. I still lose money on the purchases as I did not buy enough on my last purchase.
Axioms:
1. You only make good profit when you buy a good stock at the right time.
2. Never buy stocks on its way down.
3. Stock shorters of good stocks will hurt you but eventually the last of them will screw themselves up - it does not apply to emerging markets though.
4. Ugly shoes have nothing to do with the profits of the companies that make them. Beauty has different yardsticks.
Axioms:
1. You only make good profit when you buy a good stock at the right time.
2. Never buy stocks on its way down.
3. Stock shorters of good stocks will hurt you but eventually the last of them will screw themselves up - it does not apply to emerging markets though.
4. Ugly shoes have nothing to do with the profits of the companies that make them. Beauty has different yardsticks.
Friday, September 9, 2011
Job plan that does not work
The job plan has the same problem: spend, spend, spend and do not know how to get the money.
1. Pass our loan burden to our children.
2. Will have high inflation (not now due to the deflated prices of houses, but not commodities/gold) - an invisible tax for those who have.
3. Will raise our debt ceiling and hence will screw up the stock market.
4. Do not spend wisely.
Education starts at home, not at school. With 40% dropout of Black/Hispanic who will be the majority, we do not have a future even throwing money at schools. Money will be well spent to limit single parent families.
Creating more government jobs is not a good way to boost employment.
We should calculate the actual cost of each job created.
5. The most you can save is to end the two wars - check how many billions we can save a month. We really need to fix our economy and unemployment first. We cannot afford the two wars. Even with the mightiest army on earth, we're really a paper tiger if we cannot fix our internal problems. Same as Mao telling his starving citizens that you're the greatest citizens on earth.
6. Bite the bullet for all by increasing taxes, decreasing welfare/entitlements...
Obama is a good communicator but he should have acted far earlier to solve our economy problem that is created by the previous government. It is obvious Obama is buying votes for the next election.
We elect our leaders, so we have to blame ourselves. The major flaw is our political system to ensure our leaders plan for 4 years and not for the long term. We've more poor than the rich and each has one vote. However, after they're elected, they have to pay back for the special interest groups that have funded their campaigns. That's why democratic system also leads to corruption.
Politicians have to watch out for the benefits/welfare of the poor in order to buy votes. The rich will migrate to other countries with less taxes, and be rewarded for their investment and taking risks. So are the corporations moving jobs and investments overseas.
Greece has been illustrated what, why, and how thoroughly. Democratic system esp. the rich ones could lead to socialism/corruption, and socialism/corruption in turn could lead to self destruction of our society.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 9/9/11. Updated 9/26/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
1. Pass our loan burden to our children.
2. Will have high inflation (not now due to the deflated prices of houses, but not commodities/gold) - an invisible tax for those who have.
3. Will raise our debt ceiling and hence will screw up the stock market.
4. Do not spend wisely.
Education starts at home, not at school. With 40% dropout of Black/Hispanic who will be the majority, we do not have a future even throwing money at schools. Money will be well spent to limit single parent families.
Creating more government jobs is not a good way to boost employment.
We should calculate the actual cost of each job created.
5. The most you can save is to end the two wars - check how many billions we can save a month. We really need to fix our economy and unemployment first. We cannot afford the two wars. Even with the mightiest army on earth, we're really a paper tiger if we cannot fix our internal problems. Same as Mao telling his starving citizens that you're the greatest citizens on earth.
6. Bite the bullet for all by increasing taxes, decreasing welfare/entitlements...
Obama is a good communicator but he should have acted far earlier to solve our economy problem that is created by the previous government. It is obvious Obama is buying votes for the next election.
We elect our leaders, so we have to blame ourselves. The major flaw is our political system to ensure our leaders plan for 4 years and not for the long term. We've more poor than the rich and each has one vote. However, after they're elected, they have to pay back for the special interest groups that have funded their campaigns. That's why democratic system also leads to corruption.
Politicians have to watch out for the benefits/welfare of the poor in order to buy votes. The rich will migrate to other countries with less taxes, and be rewarded for their investment and taking risks. So are the corporations moving jobs and investments overseas.
Greece has been illustrated what, why, and how thoroughly. Democratic system esp. the rich ones could lead to socialism/corruption, and socialism/corruption in turn could lead to self destruction of our society.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 9/9/11. Updated 9/26/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
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