Behind this big win, there are many soul searching.
* Chinese training system will not do good for tennis and possibly for golf. Hitting a thousand balls a day is over-trained.
* Chinese do not have enough good coaches in tennis. Using badminton or table tennis training techniques most likely do not hold well. The next generation of coaches will be from the retired tennis players of today, so the future is bright.
* Chinese fans have a lot to learn and should not be the ‘amateur’ coaches that have a lot to do with the loss of Australia Open and some blame on the Olympics game for Li Na.
We depend on foreign training, system and coaching today. They’re constructive criticism. We’re in a learning stage and if we do not learn, we will never go to the next level.
—–
* She should have won it easily if she went to 4-1 instead of 3-2 in the second set.
* She should be in the top 3 world rank with two Grand Slam finals and one win.
* Her last losses since Australia Open indicates that tennis is more a mind game.
* The next win will not be easy: 1. she should have passed her prime for her age, and 2. currently most top rank players are either injured or just retired.
* It seems Chinese female players esp. in tennis and golf are better adapted than male counter
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Friday, June 3, 2011
Classify Chinese immigrants in US
By their behaviors at Walmart.
Last Generation. My mom's friends change price labels (to their advantage) or ask for a full refund on dresses they bought for last night's banquet. They admit nothing wrong and need to save for the next generation.
This Generation. My wife suddenly lost her voice when the cashier forgot to charge an item. She assumes that sometimes the stores cheat her knowingly or unknowingly. Hence, she still would go to heaven. In addition, her spouse may buy the stock of this company, and hence she could be the owner of the company. Good logic!
Next Generation. My honest daughter drove miles to return the $1 to the cashier that she was under charged while she spent extra $5 on gas. No wonder we have energy crisis.
They react according to their wealth and education.
------
By history:
1. Thousand years ago.
First Chinese immigrants are native Indians and Eskimos. They have the same genes as Chinese. Both lack a kind of enzyme that allows us to be drunk easier besides same color of the hair, skin, body… They must be some drunk Chinese losing their way to walk across the frozen strait between the two continents. There is a good chance that they escaped from wars.
There was a Time article about a Chinese expert in old Chinese language. He could read some old text in Columbian artifacts.
2. First wave. About 200 years ago when China was bankrupt after the wars with 8 devilish nations. Semi slaves to dig gold and build the railroad. They’re uneducated labors with not much education. Most did not marry (as the US immigration law against Chinese bringing female in) and few children from this generation (some returned home and got married).
3. Second wave. The descendants of first wave and some buying false IDs. Worked in restaurants, laundry houses, sweat shops. Uneducated. The second generation is more educated.
4. Third wave. Hong Kong and Taiwanese students. Most Taiwanese students came for graduate schools.
5. Fourth Wave. Students from mainland China and were allowed to stay after TSM.
The children from third wave and fourth wave are highly educated.
The current wave could be termed as #6 in my classification. Very crude and arbitrary classification.
Last Generation. My mom's friends change price labels (to their advantage) or ask for a full refund on dresses they bought for last night's banquet. They admit nothing wrong and need to save for the next generation.
This Generation. My wife suddenly lost her voice when the cashier forgot to charge an item. She assumes that sometimes the stores cheat her knowingly or unknowingly. Hence, she still would go to heaven. In addition, her spouse may buy the stock of this company, and hence she could be the owner of the company. Good logic!
Next Generation. My honest daughter drove miles to return the $1 to the cashier that she was under charged while she spent extra $5 on gas. No wonder we have energy crisis.
They react according to their wealth and education.
------
By history:
1. Thousand years ago.
First Chinese immigrants are native Indians and Eskimos. They have the same genes as Chinese. Both lack a kind of enzyme that allows us to be drunk easier besides same color of the hair, skin, body… They must be some drunk Chinese losing their way to walk across the frozen strait between the two continents. There is a good chance that they escaped from wars.
There was a Time article about a Chinese expert in old Chinese language. He could read some old text in Columbian artifacts.
2. First wave. About 200 years ago when China was bankrupt after the wars with 8 devilish nations. Semi slaves to dig gold and build the railroad. They’re uneducated labors with not much education. Most did not marry (as the US immigration law against Chinese bringing female in) and few children from this generation (some returned home and got married).
3. Second wave. The descendants of first wave and some buying false IDs. Worked in restaurants, laundry houses, sweat shops. Uneducated. The second generation is more educated.
4. Third wave. Hong Kong and Taiwanese students. Most Taiwanese students came for graduate schools.
5. Fourth Wave. Students from mainland China and were allowed to stay after TSM.
The children from third wave and fourth wave are highly educated.
The current wave could be termed as #6 in my classification. Very crude and arbitrary classification.
Disciplined investing
I would like to find out how disciplined investing performs on swing trading (i.e. the average holding period of a stock is about 4 months). Will keep the info/performance on this blog as comments. We all have bad trading habits. I like to check whether I can beat S&P with disciplined investing in the long run.
*It will be real-life instead of simulation.
* Will be disciplined on how I trade following the procedures below.
* Buy. Will place a buy order about one stock per week usually on Monday or Tuesday except vacations, holidays and a down market.
Will have a position from $10,000 to $25,000 per stock depending on how attractive the stock and the market conditions.
Will buy it at .5% to 2% less than the market price and will buy it at market price if I cannot buy it with my limited price. Skip the buy order if it explodes in price. I missed a lot of good buys before. Over 90% of the buy orders should be executed.
* Sell. Will place a loss of 25% and sell it at a gain of 15%.
* Market correction. Will sell all stocks at 2-10% higher than the current prices when I predict a correction is coming.
* Market Recession. Will act accordingly. Will tighten stop orders at the last phase of the market cycle or when the market is risky.
Market timing is not a science. However, it is better than with a plan than without one. Hopefully, in the long run, we can guess correctly more times right than wrong.
The above is a very simple market plan and all investors should have one but it should be more complicated. It should include how you select a stock and your objective like beating S&P 500 by 2% at least risk.
Stocks will be screened from many sources. Some are free and some are at low costs. Will evaluate each stock using fundamentals. Select the best one to buy.
Just updated the scoring system for stocks. Now I've two: one for taxable accounts (holding it for 12 months) and one for swing trade (4 months). Will include stocks I just bought. Do your own research as no one will be responsible for the performance other than yourself.
---------
History.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 6/3/11. Updated 7/26/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
*It will be real-life instead of simulation.
* Will be disciplined on how I trade following the procedures below.
* Buy. Will place a buy order about one stock per week usually on Monday or Tuesday except vacations, holidays and a down market.
Will have a position from $10,000 to $25,000 per stock depending on how attractive the stock and the market conditions.
Will buy it at .5% to 2% less than the market price and will buy it at market price if I cannot buy it with my limited price. Skip the buy order if it explodes in price. I missed a lot of good buys before. Over 90% of the buy orders should be executed.
* Sell. Will place a loss of 25% and sell it at a gain of 15%.
* Market correction. Will sell all stocks at 2-10% higher than the current prices when I predict a correction is coming.
* Market Recession. Will act accordingly. Will tighten stop orders at the last phase of the market cycle or when the market is risky.
Market timing is not a science. However, it is better than with a plan than without one. Hopefully, in the long run, we can guess correctly more times right than wrong.
The above is a very simple market plan and all investors should have one but it should be more complicated. It should include how you select a stock and your objective like beating S&P 500 by 2% at least risk.
Stocks will be screened from many sources. Some are free and some are at low costs. Will evaluate each stock using fundamentals. Select the best one to buy.
Just updated the scoring system for stocks. Now I've two: one for taxable accounts (holding it for 12 months) and one for swing trade (4 months). Will include stocks I just bought. Do your own research as no one will be responsible for the performance other than yourself.
---------
History.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 6/3/11. Updated 7/26/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
Rising and falling sectors
As of 5/29/2011,
* Rising sectors.
- solar.
- eBook.
- video games.
* Long-term rising sectors.
- energy
- commodities
- health care.
- agriculture
- water
* Falling sectors.
- traditional publisher
- newspaper
- commercial REIT (could be good value)
However, if a correction of 5-20% is coming, the best investments are ContraETFs, shorting stocks and cash. Market timing is an art more than a science. We bet the above with our best educated guess which should work more than 50% of the time, but NOT all of the time.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 5/29/11
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
* Rising sectors.
- solar.
- eBook.
- video games.
* Long-term rising sectors.
- energy
- commodities
- health care.
- agriculture
- water
* Falling sectors.
- traditional publisher
- newspaper
- commercial REIT (could be good value)
However, if a correction of 5-20% is coming, the best investments are ContraETFs, shorting stocks and cash. Market timing is an art more than a science. We bet the above with our best educated guess which should work more than 50% of the time, but NOT all of the time.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 5/29/11
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
The best in life
With no doubts, the best in life are free or almost free: fresh air and clean water (we do not appreciate them until we visit China and Hong Kong to a lesser extent), healthy food, a walk around the lake or in the park... We living in Mass. do not have to worry about contaminated food, Japan's nuclear/earthquake problems, Missouri flood, tornado attacks... Keep our fingers crossed and thank God.
We cannot buy our grand children’s beautiful laughter that makes our life so meaningful and enjoying.
Why should I worry about the current events like national debts, stock market...? It is my passion to learn about them and debate them among friends, otherwise life is very boring. However, try to accept others' opinions that may not be same as ours. Debates bring the best of us and the worst of us. It is better to make friends than enemies.
My secret weapon in life is: I do not need expensive toys to make me happy, so money is not a big deal to me at least at this stage of our life. However, making money is fun, losing money is nightmare, and loving money is the root of all evils… We should not let money to control our life. We should spend our time in improving our health that is more important than wealth. We always misplace our priorities in life.
I was lucky to be born a hundred miles from China hence skipping the misery in 50s and 60s. Our grand parents went thru a century of humiliation and our parents went thru WW2.
Did any of you act last week according to the prediction of the end of human race? We should eat all the unhealthy and tasty food in a fancy restaurant and charge it to our credit card. Seems to be a sweet dream and now we’ve to wake up and face cruel reality and consequences – the extra pounds we gained and the Master card statement we’ve to pay. Too bad that life is not totally free!
We cannot buy our grand children’s beautiful laughter that makes our life so meaningful and enjoying.
Why should I worry about the current events like national debts, stock market...? It is my passion to learn about them and debate them among friends, otherwise life is very boring. However, try to accept others' opinions that may not be same as ours. Debates bring the best of us and the worst of us. It is better to make friends than enemies.
My secret weapon in life is: I do not need expensive toys to make me happy, so money is not a big deal to me at least at this stage of our life. However, making money is fun, losing money is nightmare, and loving money is the root of all evils… We should not let money to control our life. We should spend our time in improving our health that is more important than wealth. We always misplace our priorities in life.
I was lucky to be born a hundred miles from China hence skipping the misery in 50s and 60s. Our grand parents went thru a century of humiliation and our parents went thru WW2.
Did any of you act last week according to the prediction of the end of human race? We should eat all the unhealthy and tasty food in a fancy restaurant and charge it to our credit card. Seems to be a sweet dream and now we’ve to wake up and face cruel reality and consequences – the extra pounds we gained and the Master card statement we’ve to pay. Too bad that life is not totally free!
Friday, May 27, 2011
Investment letters / subscriptions
I've been using investment newsletters/subscriptons for years. Many are quite low-priced and some are free to the individual. A lot are garbage, but some are very good.
When you have a lot of money to invest and you're not using a financial adviser (some good and some bad but it is another topic) and not paying for investment services, it could be a big mistake to your financial health.
Most likely you need a computer, connection to Internet and a spreadsheet in order to use them effectively.
I'm not going to compare specific systems/newsletters, but will include general pointers on how to select them.
First, you need to find what you need and how much time you can afford to use them. If you have a $10,000 or less to invest, most likely you just buy a ETF like SPY as your investment both in money and time will not pay off.
* Newsletters giving you specific stocks to buy do not require much of your time. However, if they're successful, there are too many followers buying the same stocks to drive their prices up temporarily.
* In addition, if the volumes of these stocks are small, they could be manipulated easily either by the newsletter owners and/or by your peer subscribers. I could be millionaire many times if I were the helper of a popular TV show on stock recommendation by buying the recommended stocks before they're aired.
* I like to use systems that can find a lot of stocks like some providing many searches. However, it will take a lot of time to learn and test their performances. Most likely, you need to further research each stock before you buy them.
From my experience, the best stocks could not be the better performer esp. in shorter term (less than 6 months). My theory is they've been identified by most researches.
* Do not trust the performances of the newsletter providers.
There are many ways to manipulate their performances:
1. They buy at the lowest prices of the day and sell at the highest prices of the day.
2. Survival bias. In simple term, the stocks will not be included if they lose all the value like many penny stocks. For example, Lehman Brothers is not included in most data bases.
3. Most compare with S&P 500, but without the dividends. For the last 10 years, S&P 500 has an average annual return of 1% on appreciation and 2% on dividends. So, you should compare to 3% or so and not 1%.
If they use real money for the portfolio, then you can trust their performance.
* We all get mails about how they can triple your investment. Just throw them to the garbage bin. If it is that good, most likely they will keep them for themselves.
If they list the 200% or so returns of the stocks, most likely they were not recommended before and I bet they never mention their big losers. If it is that good consistently, why they leak out the secrets. Most of them make better money in the service than from their own trades.
Recently a 'guru' said he recommended not to buy silver before the big plunge. I read his recommendation a month ago. Guess what? He recommended silver full-heartedly and felt sorry for you if you did not have silver.
* When you have subscribed an investment newsletter, keep track of the performance. It is better to do paper trading before using real money.
* Compare your style of investing. If you're a day trader, most likely a newsletter for retirees and/or short-term swingers are not for you. Some newsletters concentrate on penny stocks that are quite risky.
* There are many sectors that we cannot evaluate effectively from the balance sheets. It is better to subscribe to these corresponding newsletters like drug, miners, bank lenders...
* Skip the inexpensive (or free) newsletters that concentrate on penny stocks. There is a good chance the editor trades before you.
* I do not evaluate using balance sheets any more as many newsletters/subscriptions have summarized many financial data for us to save us a lot of time.
(c) TonyP4 3/25/11
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
When you have a lot of money to invest and you're not using a financial adviser (some good and some bad but it is another topic) and not paying for investment services, it could be a big mistake to your financial health.
Most likely you need a computer, connection to Internet and a spreadsheet in order to use them effectively.
I'm not going to compare specific systems/newsletters, but will include general pointers on how to select them.
First, you need to find what you need and how much time you can afford to use them. If you have a $10,000 or less to invest, most likely you just buy a ETF like SPY as your investment both in money and time will not pay off.
* Newsletters giving you specific stocks to buy do not require much of your time. However, if they're successful, there are too many followers buying the same stocks to drive their prices up temporarily.
* In addition, if the volumes of these stocks are small, they could be manipulated easily either by the newsletter owners and/or by your peer subscribers. I could be millionaire many times if I were the helper of a popular TV show on stock recommendation by buying the recommended stocks before they're aired.
* I like to use systems that can find a lot of stocks like some providing many searches. However, it will take a lot of time to learn and test their performances. Most likely, you need to further research each stock before you buy them.
From my experience, the best stocks could not be the better performer esp. in shorter term (less than 6 months). My theory is they've been identified by most researches.
* Do not trust the performances of the newsletter providers.
There are many ways to manipulate their performances:
1. They buy at the lowest prices of the day and sell at the highest prices of the day.
2. Survival bias. In simple term, the stocks will not be included if they lose all the value like many penny stocks. For example, Lehman Brothers is not included in most data bases.
3. Most compare with S&P 500, but without the dividends. For the last 10 years, S&P 500 has an average annual return of 1% on appreciation and 2% on dividends. So, you should compare to 3% or so and not 1%.
If they use real money for the portfolio, then you can trust their performance.
* We all get mails about how they can triple your investment. Just throw them to the garbage bin. If it is that good, most likely they will keep them for themselves.
If they list the 200% or so returns of the stocks, most likely they were not recommended before and I bet they never mention their big losers. If it is that good consistently, why they leak out the secrets. Most of them make better money in the service than from their own trades.
Recently a 'guru' said he recommended not to buy silver before the big plunge. I read his recommendation a month ago. Guess what? He recommended silver full-heartedly and felt sorry for you if you did not have silver.
* When you have subscribed an investment newsletter, keep track of the performance. It is better to do paper trading before using real money.
* Compare your style of investing. If you're a day trader, most likely a newsletter for retirees and/or short-term swingers are not for you. Some newsletters concentrate on penny stocks that are quite risky.
* There are many sectors that we cannot evaluate effectively from the balance sheets. It is better to subscribe to these corresponding newsletters like drug, miners, bank lenders...
* Skip the inexpensive (or free) newsletters that concentrate on penny stocks. There is a good chance the editor trades before you.
* I do not evaluate using balance sheets any more as many newsletters/subscriptions have summarized many financial data for us to save us a lot of time.
(c) TonyP4 3/25/11
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
The fair price of oil
Oil will not run out at least in our generation. However, peak oil has come and passed. The easy oil (closer to the surface and light) is getting scarce. The heavy oil, oil from ocean and oil being trapped are more expensive to extract.
As of 6/12, the fair price of oil is $95 ($90 production cost and $5 for profit) to me and it is currently over-priced at about $100 per barrel. The long-term trend is higher due to more expensive extraction cost and supply/demand (with higher living standard in China and India and larger population). It is also due to the depreciation of USD and inflation. Hence, we need to adjust it every 6 months or so.
OPEC would like to maintain the oil price at about $100 (at today's USD) for longer-term profit. Every country within OPEC has its own agenda, political and economical issues.
However, when oil is higher than $125 for long, the alternative energies will be more feasible economically and conservation becomes more apparent. If it is run-away to $150, we'll have another recession.
Oil price has been fluctuating a lot in the last 4 years. It is purely due to speculation. The ease of money favors higher price due to inflation. QE2 plays a role, and so will be QE3 if it is not materialized. The current restrictions in speculating commodities reduce speculating on oil and could be the reason oil price drops. Retail investors should stick on fundamentals: buy low and sell high and my $85 is a good guideline (expect $95 next year). We like to eat oil traders for lunch instead the other way round!
One's opinion.
-----
BTW, I recommended to buy oil (OIL as a ETF) in Fool's Mountain blog when oil was $35 per barrel. If you made a killing, please send me my share of your loot. :)
Some believe all the invasions of the Middle East and recently N. Africa and the counter attacks are due to oil. We only enforced no-fly zone on countries that have oil. If so, shame on us. If it is the Crusade, shame on religions and the congress which is controlled by the Jews who drive us to wars. Would some one shed some light on it.
A related link.
---
As of 12/14/12 about 6 months from last writing, I change the oil price to $90. Since the current price is $100, it is about $10 over-priced esp. when the global economy does not look good.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 5/27/11. Updated in 12/14/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
As of 6/12, the fair price of oil is $95 ($90 production cost and $5 for profit) to me and it is currently over-priced at about $100 per barrel. The long-term trend is higher due to more expensive extraction cost and supply/demand (with higher living standard in China and India and larger population). It is also due to the depreciation of USD and inflation. Hence, we need to adjust it every 6 months or so.
OPEC would like to maintain the oil price at about $100 (at today's USD) for longer-term profit. Every country within OPEC has its own agenda, political and economical issues.
However, when oil is higher than $125 for long, the alternative energies will be more feasible economically and conservation becomes more apparent. If it is run-away to $150, we'll have another recession.
Oil price has been fluctuating a lot in the last 4 years. It is purely due to speculation. The ease of money favors higher price due to inflation. QE2 plays a role, and so will be QE3 if it is not materialized. The current restrictions in speculating commodities reduce speculating on oil and could be the reason oil price drops. Retail investors should stick on fundamentals: buy low and sell high and my $85 is a good guideline (expect $95 next year). We like to eat oil traders for lunch instead the other way round!
One's opinion.
-----
BTW, I recommended to buy oil (OIL as a ETF) in Fool's Mountain blog when oil was $35 per barrel. If you made a killing, please send me my share of your loot. :)
Some believe all the invasions of the Middle East and recently N. Africa and the counter attacks are due to oil. We only enforced no-fly zone on countries that have oil. If so, shame on us. If it is the Crusade, shame on religions and the congress which is controlled by the Jews who drive us to wars. Would some one shed some light on it.
A related link.
---
As of 12/14/12 about 6 months from last writing, I change the oil price to $90. Since the current price is $100, it is about $10 over-priced esp. when the global economy does not look good.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 5/27/11. Updated in 12/14/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
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