Market timing

 

 

As of 2/12/2022, the following are from Finviz.com.

ETF	SMA-200	SMA-50	SMA-20	Death Cross?
SPY	-0.8%	-4.2%	-1.7%	Yes (Step #4)
RSP	-0.5%	-1.9%	0.4%	Yes (Step #4)

 

Both ETFs indicate the market is a confirmed plunge from my indications using a technique similar to Death Cross. However, they are quite close, and we should keep an eye on these numbers. If it is a false alarm, golden cross would indicate it and you should return to equity; it could be quite common in volatile markets. The futures indicate Monday (2/14/22) the market would plunge further.

 

Investing and Ukraine

 

We need to wear two hats: one for humanity and one for investing. My first hat does not like wars and the second one likes wars or prepares for wars as an investor. They are contractionary. If you feel guilty, donate your loots (from investing) to charities specific for your clause for humanity.

 

“2/12/2022” is one of my best days in investing. S&P 500 was down by 1.9% and I was up by 1.2% in my on-line statement of my main broker. It is a difference of 3.1%. I hope it happens more often. Also I closed some of my shorts with better prices in another broker account; the reason for this account is its lower margin rate. The performance is due to several factors.

 

·                     Contra ETFs. It is a bright day, but most are still losing. Lesson: Only buy contra ETFs when the market timing indicator (such as death cross and golden cross) indicates so.

 

·                     Gold and silver. They are used to hedge inflation. Wars usually trigger the rise.  Even without wars, I recommend about 5 to 10% in these commodities. I had almost total losses of OIL but good gains on USO.

 

·                     Oil. I have been accumulating many oil stocks recently. My screens told me they were good buys. In this case, Forward P/E is a better metric than P/E.

 

·                     Most of my recent stocks selected were based on value, and they have been doing better than the market. I have none (from my memory) of those high-flying tech stocks such as Facebook.

 

Do your part to help Afghan

I used Oxfam (google “Oxfam and Afghan” due to its low overhead. Afghan folks are starving and freezing to death. We are hypocrites to spread our so-called ‘human rights’.

 

 

GTE as an example                                             

Bought it on 2/08/22 and it returns 21% today in 2 days. It was screened by my screen titled Big Rise, which looks for fast-growth stocks.  Usually I evaluate it again with a score. I did not this time as it was the only stock screened. I used Finviz to look at the basic metrics. I almost did not buy it due to:  A foreign stock (Canada), high Debt / Equity and the low price of 1.04 (the price I paid). However, many oil and resources companies are foreign. The low price could drive away most analysts (especially from mutual funds). The attractive metrics are the ridiculously low Forward P/E, no insider dumping and almost no short float %.