Lazy man's market timing

From my book "Profit form the coming market crash":

Sound Advice Risk Indicator

We only invest in stocks or real estates in a crude sense. This indicator comparing the allocations between these two investments has been quite successful. When we invest too much in the stock market instead of real estates, we will expect a market crash. When this index hit 2 as in 1906, 1928, 1937 and 1965, we had market crashes at all these times. Today (12/2018), we have similar warning. Use Google to search for articles mentioning this indicator. Here is one of many.

Buffett’s Equity to GDP

It measures the value of the market. It has been quite successful. Google for the current value. Advisor Perspectives may have this value and many insights on the current market. It will not detect the peaks and bottoms as no one can consistently. About a third of S&P earnings come from abroad. Hence it boosts market cap but doesn’t include those countries’ GDP. It is a major fault.

Lazy man’s market timing

Sound Advice Risk Indicator, Equality to GDP, Inverted Interest Curve and Death Cross make up the lazy man’s market timing. Google for the current values of the four. If you cannot get the last one, calculate it from finviz.com.

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For more of my reasoning, check out the book described next. It has 950 pages (6*9) for $9.99. It could be the best $10 you ever spend.

The above is an abstract from my book "Complete the Art of Investing" which is available from Amazon.


I challenged to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 5 or more stocks in one year after the publish date. The concepts for that article are discussed in this book.

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