Postal rate
I was told there is a postal
agreement that makes the postal rate from China to US less than within the US.
That’s why you can order something from Chinese website for low postal fees.
Cash in brokerage account
My brokerage account has two
basic choices: Money Market (1.9% interest) and Cash (0% interest). If you open
the account, I bet they use Cash for their advantage. A simple phone call could
save you some money and my son’s account.
P/E at 15?
“Buy stocks with P/E below 15” is
not true for many cases. P/E growth (PEG) should be considered at least and
then the prospect of the company. Many retailers were destroyed by Amazon and
many newspapers were destroyed by Facebook and Google. Which sector you want to
buy even one sector has a better P/E?
Most old books on value are based
on old industries that are no longer applicable in today's market. Read these
books but ask the above question.
More on P/E
Yes, P/E is the most popular
metric but it is not the only metric to evaluate a company. Here are some
comments without referring to my book “Complete the art of investing” for more
detail arguments.
·
P/E is one fundamental metrics but there are
many to consider such as Debt / Equity. A company can boost down P/E by
borrowing a lot of money such as Campbell.
·
P/E is a fundamental metric but not a momentum
metric. Short-term wise it may not do you any good. Need patience for
fundamentals as you are swimming against the tide. Check out the fundamentals
of FAANG stocks a year ago (I did in August, 2017 from my memory and published
it in my blog) and the performances were doing great one year later but I bet
not too good today. Hence the holding period for momentum of these stocks at
this time is one year and the fundamentals show up adversely after one year so
far.
·
Forward P/E is better in valuing the stock than
P/E.
·
In March, 2009, P/Es for most companies were
very poor. However, it was the best time to buy stocks. I made 80% in my
largest taxable account for the year. "E"s, the earnings, for most
stocks were rising fast.
I did write an SA article on P/E
a long while ago.
P/E for the market such as using
SPY indicates the market is over-valued today (25 vs. the average of 15).
However, it has been so for years and this condition could linger on for a
while as technically the market is still sound. When the technical tanks, most
if not all stocks will tank too regardless of P/Es.
I do not BS but have run many
tests from a historical database and documented in the above book.
CENX
CENX is very responsive to the
trade war. Buy when it is 5% down and sell (or sell short) when it is 5% up.
Will test it out with a historical database sometimes.
5G for US
March 2019 will not be the date.
You need to set up the network first and then the phones. Judging to our late
entry to 4G, we may be one generation behind China, S. Korea and Japan. There
are more in 5G than just the speed.
Robin Hood
US presence in the Pacific is no
longer needed except protecting Japan and S. Korea who are wealthy than us.
Robin Hood in reverse (steal from the poor US citizens and give to the
wealthy)?
With today's missiles and
submarines, Pacific is no longer the first 'virtual' border to protect.
Just me
Imports from Canada cannabis
companies will be banned by the US. Where there is easy money to be made, why
invite foreigners?
I stay away from these
industries. I do not want to count money with hands dripping with blood. Just
me.
CDs
CDs has to reach 3% rate to beat
inflation. Even for that the average investor has to pay income taxes.
Do you want to buy a one-year CD
or 3-year CD? After one year, the rate may be raised and you lose the rate
increase for the next two years for a 3-year CD. Tricky calculation.
Inverse yield curve
The inverse yield curve
(short-term rate is higher than long-term rate) is one hint of market going to
crash. My calculation is a passing grade but one source said it was very close.
The difference could be which rates they're using. I used 1-month Treasury rate
and 30-year Treasury rate.
Business news today
We expected there is a rate hike
and the market is expected to react that way.
Listened to Trump's funny speech.
Please behave presidentially. We do not have a good one since Reagan. Sigh!
Politics and the market
Politics and the market are interdependent.
Bankrupted company
The investor has a tax credit for the stock losing all
value. Harder to imagine but negative income carried forward is an asset too.
Why old books on value investing do not apply
Google and Facebook destroy many
newspapers while Amazon destroys many retailers. It is due to technology
revolution, internet in this case.
Most if not all the books on
value investing worked ONLY in traditional industries such as auto and soft
drink. That's why these followers do not favor high tech companies. An SA
article buying stocks with P/E below 15 is wrong to me. If it included PEG and
debt/equity, then I buy the idea more. It is easy to prove it with a historical
database for the last 10 years. I did a long while ago.
GE
GE is my recent biggest mistake.
Some of the metrics did not tell the fundamentals of the company in this case.
Will a change of CEO make the
company more profitable? It was up by 7% for this reason.
Italy
I have warned Italy before
together with Spain.
The problem is Euro. It is a
great idea for tourists but a big hole for the participating countries to take
advantage of it.
If Greece had its own currency,
it would recover faster by attracting tourists and cheaper products for export.
Oct 2, 2018.
Is it time to short stocks?
The market is over-valued. Dusted
off the searches to short stocks. TLRY appeared several times / screens and
most resulted in huge losses for shorters. New businesses (marijuana in the
case) are risky. Some will be acquired by established companies who know how to
market the products. I will not invest in this business but short the stocks.
Oct 3, 2018.
Mergers
The former New England Tel used
to have the best compensation package with bonus and/or options to many
management employees. The more mergers they have, the worse is the
compensation.
When the companies merge, they
have excess employees due to cutting down duplicated functions such as the
accounting department. Employees esp. the non-union workers fight for survival
and tend to settle for lower compensation. Supply and demand at work?
Outsourcing
Vietnam yes but not to India.
India needs to fix many problems such as stable supply of electricity before it
will be considered.
We can have a work-visa program
to attract workers from Mexico. I bet many foreign workers working in cleaning
malls and fast food joints are illegals. Otherwise they will not work but enjoy
the generous welfare.
The 5.3% plunge in 2
days
The interest rate should not cause the market crash (down by
40% from top to bottom). The margin is a record high. The trade war is a
concern too.
Here is my analysis on the market.
New business
TLRY, a Canadian cannabis
company, showed up several times in my short screens and made some profits for
investors but a nightmare for shorters. I did not touch it as a new company did
not have enough historical data today. Folks are buying for the perspective.
How to get rid of our
farm products
We can sell them to another country which in turn sells them
to China. A win-win!
Sears
Sears had its dead-cat-bounce
moments. Every time I was jealous of Lampert, not any more. I wrote that Sears
should get rid of all the loser businesses except Kenmore, lawn mowers and snow
blowers.
GE
Boeing is doing well but not GE. I wonder the cost percent
of the GE engine to the entire plane.
7 years for CDs is
too long
If we have a crash, the market
would recover in 3 years at most. Hence, you may run out of cash to return to
stocks.
I have laddered CDs maturing at
different periods, so I should not run out of cash in a period of 3 months.
Just check with my brokerage
account. There are basically 3 types of cash accounts (more if you have $100,000
cash): Cash (no dividend), Government Money Market (1.07% as of 10/2018 from my
broker) and Money Market (1.27%). Today you should choose the latter one from
the above three. There is no tax advantage for Government Money Market fund in
your retirement accounts.
Some credit unions offer far
better rates. I am a preferred customer (or sucker), my bank matches CD rates
from my broker. It has several advantages: do not have to wait to start CD,
Mass. special tax treatment for local banks... Just waste time to file
paperwork at the bank even the consultant is eye candy.
Trade war
The trade war with the US is not
a big blow to China so far. It is a tariff to consumers. It will escalate to a military war at all.
Actually the trade war is beneficial to China in the long run. After the
Tiananmen incident, US and the EU have embargo on selling weapons to China. As
a result, China develops their own weapons (some are stolen or reverse
engineered). Russia's defense industry depends on China more than before. China
can defend herself easily today.
The trigger to a war could be the
events the leaders (both US and China) cannot resolve such as impeachment of
Trump to diverge our attention. Wag the dog! It could be miscalculations and
misinterpretations by both sides. Wars have no winners!
A trade war could trigger a
military war, but there are few examples. The last big one is the Opium Wars
where 8-nation alliance helped the Brits to push opium to China. Was this
alliance good guys?
The chance of a nuclear war is
higher when the conflict is between two nuclear powers. From the cold war, we
did not have one but we had many instances that could trigger a nuclear war to
destroy the world by man-made mistakes. Hawaii's faulty warning system is one
such instance.
For the investors. If they have a war, the market would
tank.
Oct 4, 2018. 12:44 PMLink
