Hong Kong riots

Related to the trade war?

Trump told us he had nothing to do with the riots in Hong Kong. It reminds me most thieves never say they have stolen nothing.

It is rumored they were helped by CIA or NED (National Endowment for Democracy) and it is too far-fetched to me. However, CIA does not have a good record. It could be a bargain chip for the trade war. When the rioters sang American songs and waved American flags, you can guess easily who financed the riots. What happens if Americans sing Chinese songs and wave Chinese flags in America? We would call them traitors and most likely they are paid by the Chinese.

It could be assisted by Taiwan to demonstrate that “One Country, Two Systems” does not work.

It could be by the advocates for Hong Kong independence thinking naively that U.S. would send a carrier to help them. That would not happen as U.S. does not want to risk WW3. If the protesters think they have more freedom in the colonial time, think again. Most high officers including the governor had been appointed by United Kingdom. My late father told me he knew some high officials who swept the street in London.

It could be a combination of all three. The protests were obviously well organized and these three have the most motives and benefits. There are more than a thousand of rioters dressed in same custom and color. 

Hong Kong root problem

After 10 years, a Hong Kong college graduate can double his salary but the cost of an average apartment has been tripled; he can never buy an apartment. Every city in every generation has its problems. The high costs of housing in Silicon Valley and Vancouver (due to Chinese immigrants) are not affordable for most local youths. We have not seen similar riots on this problem.

Hong Kong cancelled the estate taxes and it led to influx of money from foreign countries and most are wealthy Chinese. They invest in real estate but not in research / development that would create good-paid jobs.

About 50 years ago, Hong Kong had only one decent university and now there are about 10. With more college graduates chasing the limited number of jobs, employers do not have to pay them a lot.

The government has not done enough to suppress the abnormal rise of real estate prices, which has widened the wealth gap. It is partly due to the developers and real estate owners do not want to see their investments falling in prices. Now the prices are falling as many would leave Hong Kong.

The major problem of Hong Kong is housing and it spreads to most other sectors. However, Hong Kong still has a lot to go for it such as affordable health care, highest longevity, 15^th GDP per capita, free education and world-class public transportation. The advantages of being political stable and good legal control are shaking. I expect that the unemployment rate will be tripled with many small businesses closed due to the riots.

The revision of extradition is just an excuse to me. Many countries have extradition agreements, so the criminals cannot find shelter in foreign land. China does not want to publicize the criminals (many are corrupted officials) in Hong Kong.

My predictions

Obviously the results are bad for Hong Kong especially for the youths. Tourism will be hurt to start, foreign investments will be withdrawn and more rich HK folks will migrate. The government will contribute less for social services such as housing and the job market will be far worse than today. I bet Hong Kong will be in an economical depression. The rioters today will suffer economically tomorrow if they cannot immigrate. Does U.S. have enough of these ‘trouble makers’?

China has not sent soldiers or police force to suppress the rioters. Hong Kong is not important to China as it was used to and China wants to avoid the world misguided opinions. China can control Hong Kong easily by turning off the water supply and the electricity supply without firing a single bullet. Recently, China stops pilots who were on strike to fly over China. It could lead Cathy Pacific to face bankruptcy.

A democratic society should let both sides to express their opinions peacefully. Today, the expedition revision is not the reason for the riots. Contrary to many beliefs from Hong Kong, I believe in the police force to maintain the peace of society and the rioters (not the peaceful protesters) should be punished.

Update 8/2019. China announced that they will make Shenzhen a financial center and hence replacing Hong Kong. Hong Kong is digging her own grave. To me, a small group (about a thousand) started the riot for their own agenda that will be found out soon, and many have followed without thinking of the consequences of their actions.

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The above is from my new book "Trade War with China". Click here.