There are some predictions that
U.S. will suffer a lot in 2020. Even with some good arguments, I am not totally convinced. However, I would
take actions, similar to buying insurance. I would like to invest in gold and
foreign countries (but all countries will be on fire if the prediction is
correct). I will limit my Chinese stock holdings in 2020 for sure.
To some, China has a cycle of
disasters every 60 years and 2020 is supposed to be the year for disasters. It
happened in the last three: 1960 Great Famine (1959-1961 and estimated 30
million died), 1900 Boxer Rebellion (1899 – 1901) and 1840 First Opium War
(1839 – 1842). I cannot find any major disaster in 1780 and Sino-Japan War is
not in the cycle year. It has 3 rights
and 2 wrongs – not a bad bet.
Some predictors believe the USD
would lose the reserve currency status. It is quite possible as we have been
printing too much USD and our national debt is ridiculously high compared to
our GDP. The hint today is some countries are not using USD for trading. The
“One Belt, One Road” is another example.
Secondly, they also believe there
will be an overdue earthquake that would destroy California. Despite of any
predictions, it would happen but hopefully not in my life time. It would
destroy Silicon Valley and Hollywood. The stock market would lose all the
value. The Federal government would not rescue California in this scale and
that would lead California to be independent.
The two events if materialize
would possibly cause a global depression and even civil wars. Election year is
traditionally a good year for the market, but I will be more careful this time.
---
The above is from my new book "Trade War with China". Click here.
No comments:
Post a Comment