Monday, November 11, 2019

Recent comments


Misunderstanding Hong Kong’s protests
I am pretty sure an organization (financed by the U.S. government) finances or even trains the Hong Kong rioters and so are many other riots around the world.

Double standards on human rights

U.S. has used different human rights standards to fit their political views. Are many countries in the Middle East violating human rights far more than China? Allowing our citizens shooting each other is a violation to me. Check out how many citizens are killed by the police every year and compare it to the numbers in other developed countries. What is the evidence of Huawei’s spying others using the phones and compare it to ours?  The list is endless.

More on human rights
The western standard applies to the west and Chinese standard applies to China.

Human rights come in priority: Food, Clothes, Housing, Freedom, Education… from my yardstick (everyone’s is different). Without food, how can you think of freedom; many could argue with me on this as they have never been starving. When you are freezing to death without clothes and housing, all the freedom in the world would do you no good.

China had lifted more than 500 millions from poverty and starving to death. I close my case.

China is still not a rich country and it cannot afford to protect all human rights with her limited resources. For example, she cannot afford to spend millions in trials such as O.J.’s case.

The social score could be an easy way to control her citizens. It does not seem workable in our society but it is effective in China. While we complain our privacy, China has developed the facial recognition and have been successful in catching criminals.

Tibet and minorities in Western China
Some argue genocide on Chinese minorities in these regions. These are all fade news (real fake new). The media print what you want to hear without checking out the facts. The reality is Chinese minorities did not have to follow “one-child policy” as the Hans (the majority) had. How can it be genocide?

So far they have got more than they give out. Before the ‘liberation’, only Tibetan Monks could get an education and now all have compulsory basic education. The train to Tibet increases the living standard of all Tibetans. The generous financial aids to the earthquake in Tibet is another example.

The high-speed train to Western China will never be paid back. It is also used to suppress the riots (good or bad depending on your viewpoint) that destroy the peace of the society. The minorities in Western China are the chief beneficiaries of the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative.

China’s foreign policy

The big difference between the U.S.’s is a non-interference policy. They just want to trade with you and do not care about your government policy and/or human rights practice.

If you do not want to trade, it is fine too. When the Brits found they had nothing to trade with China, they pushed opium obtained from India as a nation and killed millions of Chinese. The trade was enforced by battleships and big guns. Later on the eight nations including U.S. and Japan semi colonized China and changed China history for the worst.

Is Chinese government or the U.S. government better?

No government is perfect.

China’s government. It is authoritative. It is not communist as they do not let you set up shops. For the last 40 years, it has lifted millions away from poverty. In Mao’s time, millions starved to death. You cannot conclude which government is good or bad as it all depends on how the leader governs the country. China does not want to unfriend any foreign country if you do not follow their ideas. Many developing countries want to adopt China’s ideas as the results are good.

China’s policy is making both China and your country both prosperous by investing China’s excess trade deficits with you such as the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative.

U.S.’s government. One major problem is we have been wasting time in arguing with each other.

“One man, one vote” is ideal. However, if the citizens are not educated enough, it would not make the best decisions. The politicians have to buy votes such as the welfare recipients to satisfy both objectives. Our politicians look for 4 years, so many big infrastructure projects will have no payback even our bridges and roads are deteriorating.

If you believe that U.S. government is democratic and fair, you believe in fairy tales. Anyone can write a good-size book on this topic.

Teenagers,

If you’re using China’s TikTok for fun in creating your funny videos, you may be harmful to our national security. Give me a break please.

Too much control?

We have to relax on privacy, so we do not be left behind in artificial intelligence / facial recognition from China. So is stem cell research.

Is Syria’s oil ours?

If not, why should we send soldiers to protect the oil?

The recession is coming
The last one was rescued by China buying our debts. Not this time I bet.

Land of opportunities

It is about 50 years after the fall of Vietnam. First I have to thank the veterans who sacrificed for us even it is the wrong war at least to some. Have we been threatened by Vietnam today? Why we protected a corrupt government?

Initially the Vietnamese refugees were the burden of the society; some were accused of welfare cheaters and some were too tough (not surprising from what they went through).

The first generation changes the bad image COMPLETAELY. Most are working as respected citizens. Many are professionals and they rank very high as a racial group in social status in our society.

S.E. Asia

If you have been to any S.E. Asia country, you will find the infrastructure and construction projects built or being built by Chinese. It has improved the living standard over there. However, they also have to depend on the debt burden from China. U.S. has neglected this market. It is too late now to do anything. Even if they redirect the factories from China to this area, China still benefits a lot in years to come and China eventually have to suffer from their own success with higher wages and stricter environment control. The “Blue Dot project” is designed to rescue their financial influence in S.E. Asia. It is too little and too late. It is designed by folks who have not been to this area lately and/or this is the silly response to what their boss asked.

Why Chinese grow so fast

From Ming’s period, China had half of the world’s GDP. China declined due to her ignorance of the industrial revolution and the advances from the west.

Now, they learn the lessons and humiliation for the 100 years after the first Opium War. They had a sign in front of a Chinese park saying “No Chinese and Dog”.  What will you feel if a foreign country do this to you? Nixon took out the embargo and Deng had great vision.

Today China’s per capital income is about ¼ of the US and a little more if purchase power is considered. Chinese living standard has been improved by better infrastructure to start. China’s next steps should be clean water and clean air. China plows back a lot of income in research and education. They learn and practice my theory of consumption vs. investing).

Why China’s rail develops so fast

There are many reasons. The east coast area is densely populated. Hence, they have a large market. The air travel is controlled by the air force. They need to use the rail system to connect the world. It is a way to improve the living standard. The land prices (most land are owned by the government) would be increased along the high-speed rail.

Sunday, November 3, 2019

How I prepare for 2020 disaster


Important. This is my preparation. Talk to your financial advisor before you commit money.

This article prepares you for some of the predicted disasters in 2020, which may never materialize. However, it also helps you prepare yourself for any future disasters. The disasters may never happen but your actions are the insurance for protecting yourself. Depending on your risk tolerance, allocate 2% to 25% for this effort. I divide the actions into several categories.

Preparing for depreciation of USD.
The government has been printing too many USD and the economy is not that rosy as our government describes as of 2019. As a result, the USD would lose the reserve currency status. We know what happened to U.K. when the pound was replaced by USD.  In preparing for a market plunge, we usually accumulate cash or buying safe Treasury bills. It does not work this time if this cash loses most of its buying power.

Here are my suggestions on what to buy. The current prices are based on around Oct. 1, 2019. They are rounded up for easier to remember and they are used for reference only.  Check the current prices and I am not responsible for any errors.

Action
Related
ETF
Current
Price



Gold per ounce.

$1,490
Gold coins (Canadian).

$1,590
Gold ETF
GLD
$141
Gold Trust
IAU
$14
Gold miner
RING
$22



Silver per ounce

$17
Silver (American Eagle)

$26
Silver Trust
SLV
$16



Bitcoin (too risky for me)

$8,000
Copper Miners (risky)
COPX
$17
Commodity-indexed Trust
GSG
$15
Commodities Select Strategy
COMT
$44
Material
IYM
$92



Oil
USO
$12

OIL
$11
Oil barrel

$55
Europe assets


Contra Total Bond
SAGG
$30
Sell bonds


Short bank stocks
SEF
$21



Reduce cash (CDs, bonds…)




Preparing for prolonged recession
U.S. could be in a prolonged recession from natural disaster such as earthquake in California. The trade wars would bring a global recession. In addition to the above table, more actions are presented here.

Action
Related
ETF
Current
Price
Sell most U.S. stocks.


Contra ETFs. See above table


Contra ETFs and short technology.


Short U.S. stocks and leave them uncovered.


Short U.S. stocks with HQ in CA.


Oil stocks (outside CA).


Farm stocks (outside CA).


Sell Chinese stocks.


Short Chinese stocks





Swiss stocks or EU currency related.


Short Treasury bond (risky)
TBF
$18.77
Contra ETF DIA
DOG
$52.46
Contra ETF SPY
SH
$26.13
Contra ETF QQQ
PSQ
$27.74
Contra Mid Cap (risky)
MYY
$42.61
Contra Small Cap (risky)
SBB
$32.32


Protecting your lives
Protect yourself from a stage of no government and police protection.

Action
Buy guns or weapons.
Store enough food.
Store enough water.
Store enough wood.
Store enough gasoline and have a generator.