Market peak as of 7/4/2017?

It is hard to determine market peaks and bottoms. Otherwise, there are no poor folks. Based on previous data, I tried to predict (again predict) whether the market is peaking.

From my previous findings:

Table: Market Plunges

Market Plunge	Months (Peak to Bottom)	Loss	Annualized Loss
2000	17	56%	40%
2007	25	47%	23%
Average	21	51%	31%

Table: Vital Dates

Market Plunge	Peak	Bottom	Indicator Exit	Indicator Reentry
2000	08/28/00	09/20/02	10/30/00	05/26/03
2007	10/12/07	03/06/09	01/03/08	09/08/09

My test data are using SPY from 1-2000 to 2-2014 to get the averages of the peaks. The following is from my own interpretations. Again, past information does not guarantee future performance. It just serves as a guideline.

	SMA-50	SMA-200	SMA- 350	SMA50/ SMA200	RSI (14)
Market (SPY)
Peak (avg.)		5%	9%	101%	65%
7/4/2017	0%	6%	10%	N/A	50%

Both SMA-200% and SMA-350% are in par with the averages of the previous two market peaks. RSI(14) shows the market is overbought but it is 15% less than the average. I missed some parameters such as P/E. The P/E as of 7/4/17 is 25.69 and about 71% more expensive assuming the average is 15. The average of 11 stocks from Fidelity’s best sector list increased by only 0.35% for last month. So, it is not a good sign.

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The above is from my book Profit from market crash in 2017.

Click here for more info or type the following.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1537509152