Disaster 2020

The original post was created in August, 2019. Check out the end on the chance of president elected in the same cycle year (60 years apart) at the end of this post.

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There are some predictions that the U.S. will suffer a lot in 2020. Some predictions are correct and some including the “world end in 2012” are not. Hence, this article should belong to the Conspiracy Theories. Even with some good arguments, I am not totally convinced. However, I would take actions, similar to buying insurance. I would like to invest in gold and foreign countries (but all countries will be on fire if the prediction is correct). I will limit my Chinese stock holdings in 2020 for sure.

 

Prediction #1 (materialized as of 2/2020). To some, China has a cycle of disasters every 60 years and 2020 is supposed to be the year for disasters. It happened in the last three: 1960 Great Famine (1959-1961 estimated 30 million died), 1900 Boxer Rebellion (1899 – 1901) and 1840 First Opium War (1839 – 1842). I cannot find any major disaster in 1780 and the Sino-Japan War was not in the cycle year.  It has 3 rights and 2 wrongs – not a bad bet. If Trump got reelected, it could be China’s disaster in 2020. China could benefit if Trump settles the trade war soon.

 

Prediction #2. Some predictors believe the USD could lose the reserve currency status. It is quite possible as we have been printing too much USD and our national debt is ridiculously high compared to our GDP. The hint today is that some countries are not using the USD for trading. The “One Belt, One Road” is another example, where the participants are trading with Chinese and /or Russian currencies.

 

Secondly, they also believe there will be an overdue earthquake that would destroy California. Despite of any predictions, it would happen but hopefully not in my life time. It could destroy Silicon Valley and Hollywood, the most important areas for our economy. The stock market could lose most of its value. The Federal government would not likely be able to rescue California in this scale and that could lead California to become independent. It is likely but I do not bet on it.

 

The two events if materialized would possibly cause a global depression and even civil wars. Election year is traditionally a good year for the market, but we should be cautious with our money this time.

 

Believe it or not? Another conspiracy theory? But, do not say you were not warned. Personally I do not believe it, but I will take some actions just like buying insurance. I hope the predictions are wrong. For more info, check out Billy Meier from the web. He did have some correct predictions but some of his photos were falsified.

 

It could be the most entertaining article in this book, or the most important one. Even if there is no disaster, it is always better to diversify with gold (about 10% I suggest) and to sell short when the market is risky.

 

https://www.thebalance.com/dollar-collapse-how-to-protect-yourself-and-survive-3306263

 

Will update this article on 1/1/2021 if we survive. Written on 8/2019.

 

Update 1/2020.

# There are plagues in years ended with ‘20’ such as 1720, 1820, 1920 and this year 2020. Is it a coincidence?

 

Update 3/2020.

# The virus spreads to Europe and U.S. It could cause a global depression. Hopefully the warmer climate would kill the virus and save our economy.

 

# U.S. tries to solve the financial crisis by excessively printing money. It could cause inflation and the USD will be shaken (Prediction #2). So far, China seems to recover from the virus, and it is the only threat to our USD.

 

Prediction #3, as of 4/2020

If U.S. asks China for damages, China would likely refuse. If the debt of about 1.07 T is frozen, China would take counter action. This would lead to military war and WW3. Even if it does not happen, consider decoupling. Personally I do not invest in Chinese companies and ETF on China and be careful with companies whose factories and investment are in China. Gold could be a better investment when war happens. I bet the war will be threatened but not materialized. Appropriate trading could be profitable.

 

Prediction #4, as of 10/2020.

So far all presidents elected in the same year as the disaster cycle (60 years apart) died: William Henry Harrison (elected on 1841 so missing the cycle year by 1), William McKinley (1900) and Kennedy (1960).  Coincident?

 

With the old age of our president candidates elected in 2020, the chance is quite high this year. Biden’s VP candidate has very good signs in Chinese astronomy. I bet she will be the first female president within 5 years.

 

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