Saturday, May 23, 2020

Current development of the pandemic


First, I have to admit I am not a health care professional and actually not a professional in all fields. The following are the opinions I gathered from various sources. It is not possible for me to check the validity of every opinion. I am not responsible for any errors. Treat them as opinions and do not take any actions without professional advices. In addition, I am politically neutral. I usually comment against the current government so we could have better solutions. Listen to CDC recommendations on this pandemic.

Being the most developed country in the world, we cannot protect our own health care workers with limited supplied of masks and protective gears. Unless you are a dedicated Trump’s fan, you should tell that Trump has not been doing a good job in fighting this virus. How many have died because of his delay in fighting this virus? His speeches are full of self-promotion and not accepting the ideas from his expert advisers.

We have to ask China, a developing country, to donate and sell us the desperately-needed supplies. We’re lucky that China has controlled the virus and have manufacturing capacity for these supplies.

There are potential lawsuits against China on this virus. Until they are clear, I would not invest in China (FXI in my case). I am also careful on the companies that have factories and investments in China.

Most countries including ours will take better preventive actions for the next pandemic.

Affecting China

With Australia, United Kingdom, U.S. want to punish China to pay for our damages due to this virus. It will certainly be won in the U.S. court but not in a Chinese court. China will not pay for any damages. Here are some proposals from U.S.:

·         Forgive our debts to China. Many foreign countries would dump our debts. The status of USD as a reserve currency would be shaken.
·         Freeze China’s assets in U.S. No country would have assets in U.S.
·         Confiscate or delist Chinese stocks listed in U.S.

China will not agree to any of the above. There is a good chance the virus was started in U.S. Should U.S. pay for the losses from the 2008 financial crisis and the 2009 H1N1 virus spread from U.S.? They will win in the U.S. court of course, but the real objective is to reduce the positive impact of China’s aids to the world on this virus.

The obvious counteractions are doing the same to U.S. companies in China. It would lead to decoupling and even a military war. Our leaders will risk for a war when their election is in jeopardy.

China should be careful on the donations. Ensure N95 masks are up to the U.S. standard (98% protection instead of 95%) and / or there is a clause of no liability. Our system is making money by the parasites also known as lawyers.

Holland accused China on the quality of the donated aids. They should be directed to other countries and China should not give them anything free any more. They use it as a tool for political Chinese bashing. When they order, they should understand the 3 types of masks and should have samples before shipment. Some test kits should be transported in refrigerators. Here is a response from CGTN and how the West/U.S. demonizes China.

We all have to learn and make corrections. Unfortunately, usually we only do so after some disaster occurs. China should have a reporting channel to their own CDC, which should have full control without political interference.

Is China under-reporting the death rate? Initially no one knew much about this virus (we still don’t). There are a lot of under-reported figures including U.S. Check out our average death rates for flu from Nov. to Jan. to this year. If you know how China locks down cities and how they protect themselves including wearing masks, you understand why they have low rates in the number of infested and deaths. Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have similar figures as China.

China defeated the virus in early march from this well-written article with real reality and emotional emotions.

I have not checked out the source of this interesting blog I translated.

Affecting globalization

We cannot depend all our manufacturing on China. For example, 3M produces most masks in the world and many of their factories are in China. Most active drug ingredients are from China. We need the sources are from several sources: China, at least one other friendly source and the U.S. The last two may not be profitable, but they are for real national security.

Affecting our economy

The 2 trillion aid will be paid back somehow and someday. Our national debt will break another record. It will take a long recession and a long time to recover the market. Many countries will reduce USD as a reserve currency.

We have to make sure the 2T aid will not be used to pay for bonuses to executives and / or buybacks (to boost the stock price of the company and hence the profits of executives’ stock options). Cheat us twice, shame on us.

I expect at least 15% peak for unemployment and many businesses especially the smallest ones will be out-of-business. It will take years to recover.

Affecting our society

We have not prepared how to help the homeless. On-line schooling is not adequate for the poor who do not have internet, slow internet or no PC. The minority suffers more. Some have to work and some live in crowded houses.

Trump is walking in the tight wire to decide whether to open up (for the unemployment and the market which both would affect his reelection) and lives.

Chinese can use the phone to spot the infested nearby. Google and Facebook are doing similar apps. It may be faster to ask China to borrow their apps.

China has a health care database for all her citizens. It is easy to check and update the citizen’s health care. Our hospitals are bankrupting as other operations (expensive and profitable) have taken a back seat to treat the patients with the current pandemic. Consequently, they are laying off staffs that are desperately needed. The government should bail them out. I expect a lot of bankruptcy starting in April, 2020. Sorry for the many small businesses such as restaurants that would be bankrupted due to this virus.

Once the richest man if not one of the richest men in China is bankrupting. When he bought America’s AMC (the movie chain), I could have told him it was not a good buy regardless of the low price. If someone tells you that your investment with him would net you 100% in a year, run away fast even without your pants and learn from your mother’s lesson on no free lunch.

I am glad I did not give advice on my friend’s buying annuity. Annuity in general is not a good buy due to high commissions and the plans were written by them. Now, she is a winner after this stock market plunge.

Being the most advanced country, we should not be shamed to borrow good ideas from developing country like China.

Affecting our military

The U.S. military is at a halt after finding out 200 or so soldiers in a carrier are pandemic positive. Is it a big hole?

The captain of a carrier was fired due to warning on the virus. A hero or a victim? The one who fired him should be fired. Should the whistle blower be punished?

For a long while, we have no pandemic like this. As we have been eating games since history, I do not 100% convinced that the games cause this virus. I guess some countries are working on biological warfare.

Affecting our health

The number of deaths and the infected have passed China. We do not have inventory and manufacturing capacity to the required medical supplies.

China’s data could be far smaller than the actual. However, I watched many YouTube videos taken by citizens and they showed they’re partially recovering as of 4/1/2020. I do not think China hid the data. No one understood this pandemic at the time. We accused China of jacking up production of masks and other medical supplies. I believe they did it for themselves. Luckily, they controlled the virus and they donated some of the supplies to many countries free of charge.

China has the experience from SARS and knows how to deal with it. Our leader told us not to wear masks initially due to our limited supply. Most Asians in many countries including China wear masks in the street. Even the best masks are not bullet-proof and staying home is the best bet.

Affecting our leadership

Initially Trump took it less seriously and it led to many unnecessary deaths. We do not want to learn from China. Is saving face more important than our lives?

Trump is not a ‘wartime’ leader mentioned in the Boston Globe. Most of his talks were used to promote himself and his reelection. He has not listened to his advisors. He played politics on medical supplies on NY as NY, NJ and CT did not vote for him.

As of 4/4/2020, the medical ships have only a few patients. What’s wrong?

Trump is not going to send money to W.H.O. I do not think we will give up the membership. W.H.O. is under United Nations. The president of W.H.O. praised China in controlling the virus. A friend of my enemy is an enemy. Similar to Voice of America. In any case, politics should not be used in this pandemic. The artists all over the world supported W.H.O. by seeking contributions via their concerts.

As of 04/25/2020, the WHOLE world laugh at our president’s remark on injecting the human bodies with disinfectant products. His remark may cause him a lot of potential votes. Any of his medical advisors would tell him why it does not work.

It reminds me of the following joke that I heard. The little girl wanted to be a president when she grew up. After attending a circus, she wanted to be a clown. Her smart father told her she could be a clown and a president at the same time. Need any proof?

Defending for our president, laughter is the best and cheapest cure to this virus. Even if you die, your virus dies too and in theory you are cured.  What a genius! BTW, a genius does not call himself / herself genius every day. That’s why I do not call myself genius. See the logic?

I am still scratching my head why our Vice President did not wear a mask at Mayo Clinic.

Affecting the U.S.

Can GE, Ford, and Tesla make ventilators good and fast enough in such short notice? It seems they are working fast and productive. Thanks!

Moving 3M back from China, the world’s largest mask manufacturer, is it too late for this virus?

States compete with each other in getting the medical supplies and usually pay far higher prices. Is it the Federal’s job to buy and distribute them or setting up agreed prices?

We have been ill-prepared for this virus. After this virus, please better prepare for the next one; this is not the last one.

CDC have not done a good job initially. First, the initial test kits are too expensive for general public use. Second, not wearing masks is a wrong advice. Dr. Fauci has done a great job even risking offending his boss.

Heroes are born with crises. Thanks to all the medical workers, medical researchers and essential workers. Governor Cuomo, Dr. Fauci, Patriots owners and many others who show leadership.

Why we let the milk spilled and tomato / lettuce rotten while we have hungry folks? Some hospitals are closing due to running out of money.

Affecting the world

W.H.O. does not allowed a pandemic name to be associated with a place or a person.

Most countries have not prepared for this virus. Hopefully, they will be better prepared for the next one.

As of 3/2020, Trump is spreading the word that they are going to seek damages. Few of our allies agree with it. It seems to be the same trick of spreading the word of the virtual “mass destruction weapon” in Iraq. But, Iraq is not China.

If U.S. asks China for damages, China would likely refuse. U.S. will win from a U.S. court for sure even the case does not make sense. China has given the genetic map early and that’s why we can develop vaccines that fast. How long did Trump take this virus seriously after Wuhan had been locked out?  How China recovered so fast? The death rate of China on this virus is about the same as many Asian countries such as Japan and S. Korea.

If the debt of about 1.3T is frozen, China would take counter action. This would lead to military war and WW3. The Eight-Nation Alliance asked China for damages during the semi-colonial days.

Imagine a child comes to your house uninvited and fights with your child. Then their parents ask you to pay for their child’s damage and bankrupt you. Today China is strong enough and cannot be pushed around as before.

Unless Trump is losing the election, most likely he would not start a military war that would hurt the entire world. With Russia’s help, China is strong enough to defend herself. U.S. is too far away from her military sites.

As of 4/2020, China is recovering nicely as seen from the many YouTube videos taken by local citizens. Their protective actions hopefully would prevent the second wave of the virus. The countries facing serious problems are Belgium (highest death rate per capita), Brazil and India. S. Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are doing great in controlling the virus. The death rate of Singapore is surprisingly low that could be due to the young foreign workers and the superior health care. Canada’s infection rate is low and it could be due to the colder climate at the time.

In 5/2020, China has announced that they will help the poor countries (most are in Africa) to fight this virus and will make the vaccine public when it is available. It would hurt the profit-seeking drug companies.

China has prepared for viruses since SARS while we has not. Check out this YouTube video.

Affecting drug / vaccine development

We have been experiencing light-speed development of the drugs and vaccines today. Vaccines can be developed in two weeks and drugs in a month. The new drugs will be given to dying patients and most likely some drugs will be mass produced and used in China first. Traditional Chinese medicines have been found useful in some cases. I bet Yu  who discovered a cure for malaria is finding the cure for this virus too.  Plasma from recovered patients could be a breakthrough. However, it would take up at least 6 months for the general public (shorter time for vaccines). Here is one YouTube for the drug.


I believe hydroxylcholoroquine (referred to HC now) may have some effect. There was a big debate in the White House. They found a lot of HC on stockpile. Dr. Fauci argued against using it due to not testing it enough. Sweden tested it and bans using it due to the many side effects. Trump does not want to take advice from his experts. He takes HC personally and he becomes the best spokesman for HC. Another conspiracy theory? Injecting disinfectant becomes a joke world around and it hurts our image as a world leader.

In 5/2020, we finally have a promising vaccine from a U.S. company. The Dow was up by more than 900 points for the day. It has skipped my trials and they do not know the side effects for a long while.


The following is from my classmate who was a retiree from pharmacy.

Here are the healthcare providers comment on HC use:


Why Trump push for its use is beyond me. China has already tried it, and Nigeria banned its use on Ebola & Covid-19 use.

Trump wants to use it against Dr. Fauci, because he has his personal stake in the malaria-drug maker Sanofi, according to this article:

So far, I put more confidence in the other 2 drugs, Avigan tablet, made in Japan since 2014, and (Gilead’s) Remdesivir. Avigan has been tried on Wuhan mild to moderate infected patients with some early promising results, testing negative after the 4th day of use. Yesterday, Japan and China announced joint collaboration on the effectiveness data on Avigan.


Affecting our environment

Will the used, disposable masks an environment disaster? Recycle could be the answer.

The air is cleaner. Beijing had several days of clear sky for a change. Indians saw the water pretty clean in one of the major rivers. There are always have silver linings. How often the whole family stick together for the entire day?

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