Wednesday, April 8, 2020

More on Coronavirus


6          Current developments


Being the most developed country in the world, we cannot protect our own health care workers with limited supplied of masks and protective gears. Unless you are a dedicated Trump’s fan, you should tell that Trump has not been doing a good job in fighting this virus. How many have died because of his delay in fighting this virus? His speeches are full of self-promotion and not accepting the ideas from his expert advisers.

We have to ask China, a developing country, to donate and sell us the desperately-needed supplies. We’re lucky that China has controlled the virus and have manufacturing capacity for these supplies.

There are potential lawsuits against China on this virus. Until they are clear, I would not invest in China (FXI in my case). Most countries including ours will take better preventive actions for the next pandemic.

Affecting China

With Australia, United Kingdom, U.S. want to punish China to pay for our damages due to this virus. It will certainly be won in the U.S. court but not in a Chinese court. China will not pay for any damages. Here are some proposals from U.S.:

·         Forgive our debts to China. Many foreign countries would dump our debts. The status of USD as a reserve currency would be shaken.
·         Freeze China’s assets in U.S. No country would have assets in U.S.
·         Confiscate or delist Chinese stocks listed in U.S.

China will not agree to any of the above. There is a good chance the virus was started in U.S. Should U.S. pay for the losses from the 2008 financial crisis and the 2009 H1N1 virus spread from U.S.? They will win in the U.S. court of course, but the real objective is to reduce the positive impact of China’s aids to the world on this virus.

The obvious counteractions are doing the same to U.S. companies in China. It would lead to decoupling and even a military war. Our leaders will risk for a war when their election is in jeopardy.

China should be careful on the donations. Ensure N95 masks are up to the U.S. standard (98% protection instead of 95%) and / or there is a clause of no liability. Our system is making money by the parasites also known as lawyers.

Holland accused China on the quality of the donated aids. They should be directed to other countries and China should not give them anything free any more. They use it as a tool for political Chinese bashing. When they order, they should understand the 3 types of masks and should have samples before shipment. Some test kits should be transported in refrigerators. Here is a response from CGTN and how the West/U.S. demonizes China.

Affecting globalization

We cannot depend all our manufacturing on China. For example, 3M produces most masks in the world and many of their factories are in China. Most active drug ingredients are from China. We need the sources are from several sources: China, at least one other friendly source and the U.S. The last two may not be profitable, but they are for real national security.

Affecting our economy

The 2 trillion aid will be paid back somehow and someday. Our national debt will break another record. It will take a long recession and a long time to recover the market. Many countries will reduce USD as a reserve currency.

We have to make sure the 2T aid will not be used to pay for bonuses to executives and / or buybacks (to boost the stock price of the company and hence the profits of executives’ stock options). Cheat us twice, shame on us.

I expect at least 20% peak for unemployment.

Affecting our society

We have not prepared how to help the homeless. On-line schooling is not adequate for the poor who do not have internet, slow internet or no PC. The minority suffers more. Some have to work and some live in crowded houses.

Affecting our military

The U.S. military is at a halt after finding out 200 or so soldiers in a carrier are coronavirus positive. Is it a big hole?

Affecting our health

The number of deaths and the infected have passed China. We do not have inventory and manufacturing capacity to the required medical supplies.

China’s data could be far smaller than the actual. However, I watched many YouTube videos taken by citizens and they showed they’re partially recovering as of 4/1/2020.

China has the experience from SARS and knows how to deal with it. Our leader told us not to wear masks initially due to our limited supply. Most Asians in many countries including China wear masks in the street. Even the best masks are not bullet-proof and staying home is the best bet.

Affecting our leadership

Initially Trump took it less seriously and it led to many unnecessary deaths. We do not want to learn from China. Is saving face more important than our lives?

Trump is not a ‘wartime’ leader. Most of his talks were used to promote himself and his reelection. He has not listened to his advisors. He played politics on medical supplies on NY as NY, NJ and CT did not vote for him.

Moving 3M back from China, the world’s largest mask manufacturer, is too late for virus.

Can GE, Ford, Tesla make ventilators good and fast enough in such short notice? Is it easier to ignore our dumb nationalism and order them from China?

States compete with each other in getting the medical supplies and usually pay far higher prices. Is it the Federal’s job to buy and distribute them or setting up agreed prices?

We have been ill-prepared for this virus. After this virus, please better prepare for the next one; this is not the last one.

CDC have not done a good job. First, the initial test kits are too expensive for general public use. Second, not wearing masks is a wrong advice. Dr. Fauci has done a great job even risking offending his boss.

As of 4/4/2020, the medical ships have only a few patients. What’s wrong?

Heroes are born with crises. Thanks to all the medical workers, medical researchers and essential workers. Governor Cuomo, Dr. Fauci, Patriots owners and many others who show leadership.

The captain of a carrier was fired due to warning on the virus. A hero or a victim? The one who fired him should be fired.

Affecting the world

Most countries have not prepared for this virus. Hopefully, they will be better prepared for the next one.

Affecting drug / vaccine development

We have been experiencing light-speed development of the drugs and vaccines today. Vaccines can be developed in two weeks and drugs in a month. The new drugs will be given to dying patients and most likely some drugs will be mass produced and used in China first.

Traditional Chinese medicines have been found useful in some cases. I bet Yu  who discovered a cure for malaria is finding the cure for this virus too. Plasma from recovered patients could be a breakthrough. However, it would take up at least 6 months for the general public (shorter time for vaccines). Here is one YouTube for the drug.


I believe hydroxylcholoroquine  (referred to HC now) may have some effect. There was a big debate in the White House. They found a lot of HC on stockpile. Dr. Fauci argued against using it due to not testing it enough. Sweden tested it and bans using it due to the many side effects.  

The following is from my classmate who was a retiree from pharmacy.

Here are the healthcare providers comment on HC use:


Why Trump push for its use is beyond me. China has already tried it, and Nigeria banned its use on Ebola & covid19 use.

Trump wants to use it against Dr. Fauci, because he has his personal stake in the malaria-drug maker Sanofi, according to this article:

So far, I put more confidence in the other 2 drugs, Avigan tablet, made in Japan since 2014, and (Gilead’s) Remdesivir. Avigan has been tried on Wuhan mild to moderate infected patients with some early promising results, testing negative after the 4th day of use. Yesterday, Japan and China announced joint collaboration on Avigan's covid19 effectiveness data.

Affecting our environment

Will the used, disposable masks an environment disaster? Recycle could be the answer. 

#Filler:  Miss Mia  

In my first job just after the Vietnam War, every one tried to date my beautiful office mate Mia except me. If we married, then her name would be Mia Pow. She would be very popular, or very unpopular without showing her beautiful face. In any case, when she becomes a mother, she will be Mamma Mia.

BTW. I was the “comfort man” due to the gender gap during the Vietnam War.


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The above is from my book "China: Trade War and Coronavirus". 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B086R1586C

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