Who are losing in the trade war?

Both are and may be 20% more for China. Trump will not want to lose the re-election from this trade war.

·         The average consumer will spend an extra $800 per year due to the tariffs.

·         From my conservative estimates, U.S. GDP will be decreased by at least 0.5% when there is a full-fledge trade war with China. In addition, the stock market will crash and 200 million will be laid off.

·         Many companies supplying products to China will lose. They are virtually all global companies from the U.S. For example, the total sales for Micron’s is 57% from China and Apple’s is 20%.

·         Many companies depending on products from China for consumers and manufacturers will lose big. The following are the percentages of our products from China: 42% apparel, 69% shoes and 88% tops.

·         U.S. companies in China will be the target for revenges. Many depend on the profits in China. Surprisingly Apple is not the first target. The first target is Ford. It reflects these U.S. auto companies are not that beneficial to China as they used to be.

·         American farmers will be the greatest losers.

·         Huawei is requesting Verizon to send them 1 billion for the royalty in using their patents in 5G. The U.S. is in a dilemma of not paying it with ‘reasons’. However, if it happens, many countries including China will pay U.S. companies royalties.

·         China would withdraw the U.S. debts. Currently China and Japan are the top foreigner buyers of our Treasuries. In 2018, China has 1.13 trillion (used to be 1.3 trillion in 2013; it is about 28% of 4.02 trillion in U.S. Treasury bills.

·         The U.S. will gain a few jobs but the number is negligible as most will be gained by other low-wage countries. Automation have eliminated a lot of jobs already.

·         The universities will run into financial problems due to the reduced number of foreign students from China. Tourism is hurting. I estimate most U.S. companies producing luxury products will lose the sales by more than 20% due to Chinese tourists and buyers in China. 

·         Many of the universities and corporations will stop co-operative researches with China. It does not look good for other countries to co-operate with us.

·         The supply of rare earth elements will be cut to export to the U.S. This will affect to many industries from mobile phones to electric cars.