Wednesday, April 8, 2020

More on Coronavirus


6          Current developments


Being the most developed country in the world, we cannot protect our own health care workers with limited supplied of masks and protective gears. Unless you are a dedicated Trump’s fan, you should tell that Trump has not been doing a good job in fighting this virus. How many have died because of his delay in fighting this virus? His speeches are full of self-promotion and not accepting the ideas from his expert advisers.

We have to ask China, a developing country, to donate and sell us the desperately-needed supplies. We’re lucky that China has controlled the virus and have manufacturing capacity for these supplies.

There are potential lawsuits against China on this virus. Until they are clear, I would not invest in China (FXI in my case). Most countries including ours will take better preventive actions for the next pandemic.

Affecting China

With Australia, United Kingdom, U.S. want to punish China to pay for our damages due to this virus. It will certainly be won in the U.S. court but not in a Chinese court. China will not pay for any damages. Here are some proposals from U.S.:

·         Forgive our debts to China. Many foreign countries would dump our debts. The status of USD as a reserve currency would be shaken.
·         Freeze China’s assets in U.S. No country would have assets in U.S.
·         Confiscate or delist Chinese stocks listed in U.S.

China will not agree to any of the above. There is a good chance the virus was started in U.S. Should U.S. pay for the losses from the 2008 financial crisis and the 2009 H1N1 virus spread from U.S.? They will win in the U.S. court of course, but the real objective is to reduce the positive impact of China’s aids to the world on this virus.

The obvious counteractions are doing the same to U.S. companies in China. It would lead to decoupling and even a military war. Our leaders will risk for a war when their election is in jeopardy.

China should be careful on the donations. Ensure N95 masks are up to the U.S. standard (98% protection instead of 95%) and / or there is a clause of no liability. Our system is making money by the parasites also known as lawyers.

Holland accused China on the quality of the donated aids. They should be directed to other countries and China should not give them anything free any more. They use it as a tool for political Chinese bashing. When they order, they should understand the 3 types of masks and should have samples before shipment. Some test kits should be transported in refrigerators. Here is a response from CGTN and how the West/U.S. demonizes China.

Affecting globalization

We cannot depend all our manufacturing on China. For example, 3M produces most masks in the world and many of their factories are in China. Most active drug ingredients are from China. We need the sources are from several sources: China, at least one other friendly source and the U.S. The last two may not be profitable, but they are for real national security.

Affecting our economy

The 2 trillion aid will be paid back somehow and someday. Our national debt will break another record. It will take a long recession and a long time to recover the market. Many countries will reduce USD as a reserve currency.

We have to make sure the 2T aid will not be used to pay for bonuses to executives and / or buybacks (to boost the stock price of the company and hence the profits of executives’ stock options). Cheat us twice, shame on us.

I expect at least 20% peak for unemployment.

Affecting our society

We have not prepared how to help the homeless. On-line schooling is not adequate for the poor who do not have internet, slow internet or no PC. The minority suffers more. Some have to work and some live in crowded houses.

Affecting our military

The U.S. military is at a halt after finding out 200 or so soldiers in a carrier are coronavirus positive. Is it a big hole?

Affecting our health

The number of deaths and the infected have passed China. We do not have inventory and manufacturing capacity to the required medical supplies.

China’s data could be far smaller than the actual. However, I watched many YouTube videos taken by citizens and they showed they’re partially recovering as of 4/1/2020.

China has the experience from SARS and knows how to deal with it. Our leader told us not to wear masks initially due to our limited supply. Most Asians in many countries including China wear masks in the street. Even the best masks are not bullet-proof and staying home is the best bet.

Affecting our leadership

Initially Trump took it less seriously and it led to many unnecessary deaths. We do not want to learn from China. Is saving face more important than our lives?

Trump is not a ‘wartime’ leader. Most of his talks were used to promote himself and his reelection. He has not listened to his advisors. He played politics on medical supplies on NY as NY, NJ and CT did not vote for him.

Moving 3M back from China, the world’s largest mask manufacturer, is too late for virus.

Can GE, Ford, Tesla make ventilators good and fast enough in such short notice? Is it easier to ignore our dumb nationalism and order them from China?

States compete with each other in getting the medical supplies and usually pay far higher prices. Is it the Federal’s job to buy and distribute them or setting up agreed prices?

We have been ill-prepared for this virus. After this virus, please better prepare for the next one; this is not the last one.

CDC have not done a good job. First, the initial test kits are too expensive for general public use. Second, not wearing masks is a wrong advice. Dr. Fauci has done a great job even risking offending his boss.

As of 4/4/2020, the medical ships have only a few patients. What’s wrong?

Heroes are born with crises. Thanks to all the medical workers, medical researchers and essential workers. Governor Cuomo, Dr. Fauci, Patriots owners and many others who show leadership.

The captain of a carrier was fired due to warning on the virus. A hero or a victim? The one who fired him should be fired.

Affecting the world

Most countries have not prepared for this virus. Hopefully, they will be better prepared for the next one.

Affecting drug / vaccine development

We have been experiencing light-speed development of the drugs and vaccines today. Vaccines can be developed in two weeks and drugs in a month. The new drugs will be given to dying patients and most likely some drugs will be mass produced and used in China first.

Traditional Chinese medicines have been found useful in some cases. I bet Yu  who discovered a cure for malaria is finding the cure for this virus too. Plasma from recovered patients could be a breakthrough. However, it would take up at least 6 months for the general public (shorter time for vaccines). Here is one YouTube for the drug.


I believe hydroxylcholoroquine  (referred to HC now) may have some effect. There was a big debate in the White House. They found a lot of HC on stockpile. Dr. Fauci argued against using it due to not testing it enough. Sweden tested it and bans using it due to the many side effects.  

The following is from my classmate who was a retiree from pharmacy.

Here are the healthcare providers comment on HC use:


Why Trump push for its use is beyond me. China has already tried it, and Nigeria banned its use on Ebola & covid19 use.

Trump wants to use it against Dr. Fauci, because he has his personal stake in the malaria-drug maker Sanofi, according to this article:

So far, I put more confidence in the other 2 drugs, Avigan tablet, made in Japan since 2014, and (Gilead’s) Remdesivir. Avigan has been tried on Wuhan mild to moderate infected patients with some early promising results, testing negative after the 4th day of use. Yesterday, Japan and China announced joint collaboration on Avigan's covid19 effectiveness data.

Affecting our environment

Will the used, disposable masks an environment disaster? Recycle could be the answer. 

#Filler:  Miss Mia  

In my first job just after the Vietnam War, every one tried to date my beautiful office mate Mia except me. If we married, then her name would be Mia Pow. She would be very popular, or very unpopular without showing her beautiful face. In any case, when she becomes a mother, she will be Mamma Mia.

BTW. I was the “comfort man” due to the gender gap during the Vietnam War.


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The above is from my book "China: Trade War and Coronavirus". 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B086R1586C

Monday, April 6, 2020

China is getting tougher


The spokeswoman Hua Chunying represents China on foreign affairs. From her speech and several other speeches, China is getting tougher and decoupling is a possibility.

I cannot find a translated text. Here is the translation to English from Chinese using Google Translate and I modified to the best of my knowledge. A tough lady!


[Global Times-Global Network Report].

At the Foreign Ministry’s regular press conference on April 2.

Bloomberg reporters asked questions: Today there are reports that three US intelligence officials said that China had concealed the situation of the epidemic. It is also smaller than the actual situation. They also said that the figures provided by China are all fake figures. What's your comment?

In response, the spokesperson Hua Chunying replied: You must also know very well. For some time now, the US media’s views and related reports on the epidemic situation in the United States and the government’s response, I believe you are asking me questions, “At that time, in fact, there is an answer in your heart, you just want to come to me to confirm it again”.

Hua Chunying said, “I have also noticed the reports you mentioned, including the disclosure of the so-called three anonymous official information you mentioned, and the reports I have seen from multiple US media. On April 1st, US Vice President Pence’s words as well as Pompeo and others about the same type are all accusing China of deliberately concealing and falsifying information on the epidemic, and even saying that as early as December last year, before the world learned about the problem, China had already responded in advance.
Has China notified the international community in an open, transparent, responsible, and timely manner? Is there any concealment? My colleagues and I have repeatedly introduced them in detail. The information released by the relevant departments of the Chinese government is regularly and timely released every day. The information should also be very clear.
Regarding such issues as international public health security, I think the most qualified judges should be the WHO and relevant experts in infectious diseases or disease control, not a few politicians who are full of lies.”

Hua Chunying said, “On April 1st, at the WHO's release conference in Geneva, the person in charge also once again refuted the unreasonable accusations against China's opaque information. Now the epidemic in the United States is so serious. We are very sympathetic. I can also understand the mentality that some people in the United States are eager to make pots and dump pots. We do not want to fall into any unnecessary arguments with them, but facing these people again and again. Thirdly, there are no rumors and slurs on the moral bottom line. I think I have no choice but to waste a little time and list the facts and truth with you.

First of all, what I want to say is that everyone knows that Wuhan is indeed the earliest public notification and found the place of the epidemic, but where did it appear at the earliest? When exactly is it? We have noticed many recent discoveries and related reports in this regard. There are reports from Italy, some experts from the United Kingdom, the United States, and Australia, who have published some papers in top international academic journals. Regarding these traceability issues, the Chinese government's position is consistent. This is a very serious issue. It must be referred to professionals to make scientific and professional judgments based on facts. Experts from all walks of life are now expressing their opinions, and there are many reports on their opinions. The opinions of these scientific authorities and professionals deserve the attention and respect of all parties, including those in the United States.

The second point I want to say is that China’s timetable for handling the epidemic is clear. Everyone can see from public reports:

On December 27, 2019, Zhang Jixian, director of the Department of Respiratory and Intensive Medicine of Hubei Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine, first reported the three suspicious cases she received; on 29th, Wuhan-related disease control centers and hospitals conducted an epidemiological investigation On the 30th, the Wuhan Health and Safety Commission released an emergency notice on the well-known cause of pneumonia. On December 31, the expert team of the National Health and Safety Commission arrived in Wuhan to conduct an on-site investigation.

On January 3, China began to officially inform WHO and countries including the United States in a timely and proactive manner. On the 8th, the source of the epidemic was preliminarily determined; on the 11th, the Chinese Center for Disease Control uploaded five new coronavirus genome sequences Website, sharing information with the world and WHO.

On January 23, the Chinese government took unprecedented comprehensive, strict, and thorough measures to close the Lihan Channel. The measures taken by the Chinese government are decisive, timely, and powerful, which protects the lives and health of the Chinese people to the greatest extent, and also gains valuable time to stop the spread of the epidemic in the world.
I also introduced yesterday that Science magazine published a joint report from British and American researchers, who believed that China’s prevention and control measures have successfully broken the chain of virus transmission and gained valuable time for other countries in the world to take measures. I also noticed recently that the chief medical scientist of the United States, Fauci, said that he refused to comply with the requirements of some people in the United States, saying that China should notify the world or the United States of the epidemic three months in advance, because that is not true.

Recently, the editor-in-chief of the famous medical journal "The Lancet" also clearly stated on the BBC program, "The information transmitted by China is very clear, but we have wasted the entire February, which is simply a national scandal."

China has done its utmost to be open, transparent and accountable. Those responsible people in the United States, I want to ask them through Bloomberg, can you let them stand up and tell the world that if the country that first discovered the outbreak was the United States instead of China. The United States will handle it better than the Chinese government? If they can, please explain.

From the January 15th CDC issued a warning about new coronary pneumonia, to the 25th the United States announced the closure of the consulate in Wuhan and evacuated its personnel, and then to the 2nd, the United States What has the US done for all Chinese citizens and foreigners who have been to China in the past 14 days after closing the border? Why, according to a report by 11 people in the New York Times, a female doctor in the United States, Zhu Hailun, began to "whistle" the outbreak in the United States as early as January, and issued a warning, and reported the test report in February However, the US regulators have been ordered to seal and stop testing? Why is it at the end of February?

The White House also requires US officials, health departments, and experts to obtain approval from Vice President Pence’s office before making public statements about the epidemic? Why did the US Centers for Disease Control stop releasing data related to the number of people tested and the number of deaths on March 2nd? Why did McCarthy, a doctor at the American Presbyterian Hospital, on March 2 on CNBC show that his hospital even begged the health department to test for suspected patients? I think there are many reports, including Bloomberg, which are calling on US officials to stop making excuses and scapegoats for their ineffectiveness.

We understand the current US predicament and the pressure faced by some US officials. The Chinese people are very understanding and sympathetic to the suffering the American people are currently suffering. We are willing to provide assistance and support within the capabilities of the United States in fighting the epidemic in a humanitarian spirit. But the speeches and actions of these American politicians are shameless and virtuous. We have said many times that slandering, discrediting, dumping pots, and blaming cannot make up for lost time, and continuing to lie will only waste more time and cause more loss of life.

I also sincerely want to persuade these politicians. At this moment, as politicians, they should put the safety and health of the people above politics. It is extremely immoral and inhumane to continue political manipulation. It should be condemned by the peoples of the world including the American people. I also want to advise you, through Bloomberg, to immediately adjust the focus and direction of their work, put all their thoughts and energy into how to fight the epidemic, and spare no effort to rescue the lives of the American people and protect their health.

Hua Chunying finally told the questioning reporter that I noticed that when I just spoke, you nodded frequently, so I think we should have a consensus in this regard. I hope you can convey our voice to the American people truthfully and comprehensively, and as much as possible to the American people, including the few people you mentioned who are continuously vilifying and smearing China. I also thank you on behalf of the Chinese people.

Original title: Several American politicians shamelessly, without virtue, repeatedly rumored China to conceal the newspaper Hua Chunying took a 10 minute 8 second long question in one breath.

Friday, April 3, 2020

New book: "China: Trade War and Coronavirus"


The name of the book has changed to "China: Trade War and Pandemic" as many publishers do not like Coronavirus,

Click here or type the following:

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0884M5CMB