I'm a multi-head monster. I have several strategies: value (buy
low sell high and be patient), buy high and sell higher (sector
rotation and momentum) as described in my book Swing Trading 3rd
Edition.
Today the market is risky, so I've been piling up on cash
and killing time in Seeking Alpha. When the tide falls, everything will fall no
matter how smart one is.
Saturday, May 6, 2017
For couch potatoes
To these folks, I have several books. Basically,
1. Time the market: one simple way without charting and one with charting.
2. When the market is plunging indicated by #1, move all to cash. Otherwise buy an ETF that stimulates the market such as SPY.
Simple enough, but it beats most fund managers by a good margin as indicated by the chart above. However, this is the past performance from 2000 to 2010 and there is no guarantee for future performances.
---
If one can afford 30-60 minutes a month, try my book Rotate ETFs for Couch Potatoes. I used ETFReplay for testing my strategies.
I do not want to peddle my books here. All book profits so far have been donated to charities. I make my money by actual investing. So far, I do not know any reviewers on my books personally. Many 'reviews' were written by the authors' friends and family members.
1. Time the market: one simple way without charting and one with charting.
2. When the market is plunging indicated by #1, move all to cash. Otherwise buy an ETF that stimulates the market such as SPY.
Simple enough, but it beats most fund managers by a good margin as indicated by the chart above. However, this is the past performance from 2000 to 2010 and there is no guarantee for future performances.
---
If one can afford 30-60 minutes a month, try my book Rotate ETFs for Couch Potatoes. I used ETFReplay for testing my strategies.
I do not want to peddle my books here. All book profits so far have been donated to charities. I make my money by actual investing. So far, I do not know any reviewers on my books personally. Many 'reviews' were written by the authors' friends and family members.
On China
* Do you want to
take a flight on a Chinese jet even life insurance is included? I vote
no. I'm planning a trip to Asia and am glad it is not ready for commercial use for years.
2025 Made In China initiative is wrong, and it should be today.
One short flight for the pilot, and one big step for China.
BTW, China has the clause of transfer of technology with GE in buying tons of their engines. If GE said No, they would buy them from Rolls Royce.
* Another big purchase of a foreign compnay by a Chinese company. Will expect more. We do not let Chinese buy companies (not good to stock owners) in many industries and they can buy them (and their technology + market share) else where.
It is funny we bailed out a dying solar company with half a billion (from my memory) and it could be far more advantage to sell it to China. They are already advanced in solar technology.
One short flight for the pilot, and one big step for China.
BTW, China has the clause of transfer of technology with GE in buying tons of their engines. If GE said No, they would buy them from Rolls Royce.
* Another big purchase of a foreign compnay by a Chinese company. Will expect more. We do not let Chinese buy companies (not good to stock owners) in many industries and they can buy them (and their technology + market share) else where.
It is funny we bailed out a dying solar company with half a billion (from my memory) and it could be far more advantage to sell it to China. They are already advanced in solar technology.
Cocktail parties in 1999
I had a hard time to convince my friends and co-workers in 2000. How can
you tell the lottery winners not to buy lottery tickets? We do have
many rocket stocks today. From my books, I recommend to use trailing
stops.
From an article about the entire internet company can fit into the conference room of a Fortune 500 company with EQUAL market cap, I switched most of my sector tech funds (100% from my annuity) to traditional sectors (better to cash or even better to contra ETFs not available at the time) on April 5, 2000.
Luck or skill - you decide.
From an article about the entire internet company can fit into the conference room of a Fortune 500 company with EQUAL market cap, I switched most of my sector tech funds (100% from my annuity) to traditional sectors (better to cash or even better to contra ETFs not available at the time) on April 5, 2000.
Luck or skill - you decide.
Record high?
The sea is calmest before a big storm.
In my market timing, I found the market is technically sound but fundamentally not. Watch out for technical.
Personally I have been piling cash. I do not want to make the last dollar. Only me.
In my market timing, I found the market is technically sound but fundamentally not. Watch out for technical.
Personally I have been piling cash. I do not want to make the last dollar. Only me.
Has EU recovered?
EU countries could have turned around at least in the stock market if
you look at the performances of the ETFs on them for 2017 so far. Check
Italy and even Greece (not a typo) even with strong USD against Euro.
British exit could force two major banks to move to Europe continent.
Is it a mirage? Only time can tell.
Is it a mirage? Only time can tell.
Tuesday, May 2, 2017
From the mind of a trader
The following is one article from my book Swing (Sector Rotation + Momentum) Trading 3rd Edition:
There are many articles on
sectors by other authors and from other sites such as Market Watch. Andrew
McElroy writes articles on sectors in SeekingAlpha.com. Search for his articles
and you will learn a lot. His recommendations may not make you money, but it
should in the long run. Learn from his ideas and his reasons behind them. I’ve not
checked his performance as they’re not relevant for learning. Here are some of
my sample notes on his articles.
·
Reflation is used
by the government to restart the business after contraction. It is arguable.
His article “An inflection point for the reflation trade” also demonstrates how
Moving Average (200 days) is used. Enter the symbol such as XME under
finviz.com and check out SMA-200%. If it is above (> 0), it is a buy in
theory.
·
From his article on CHK, Andrew stated his
reasons to buy this stock. As of 3/16/17, finviz.com showed the double top
indicator and then it plunged. The forward P/E shows 4.7 and there were a substantial
insider purchase. The company has written the asset in a massive way and it
explains the low P/E. The purchase is betting oil/gas increases above $60/$3.
·
Many sectors should rise and fall at the same
time. However, divergence occurs as gold and gold miner described in his 3/7/17
article. Usually they correlate again eventually. Consider buying the one that
has been lower.
·
Sell when it is fully valued as in his article
on Bank of America. Buy on fears and sell on greed. The hike of interest rate
would make banks more profitable. He used TLT to check for correlation.
·
A trader should learn Elliott
Wave and watch the chart more often. I bought crude oil ETF in Jan., 2016
and do not touch it until oil returns to the recent high – wishful thinking?
Traders usually do not buy at bottoms as long-term investors do.
·
Sometimes there are many other factors such as
short squeeze besides what the chart such as 200-SMA tells you. Otherwise,
there are no poor folks. Reducing manipulation by market makers, use 50-SMA
together with 200-SMA.
Articles link:
http://seekingalpha.com/author/andrew-mcelroy/articles#regular_articles--------------------
I have several books on sector rotation. Hope one of them would fulfill your need.
1. For those who are into Sector Rotation and Momentum. New book.
Click here for Swing Investing 3rd Edition (Sector Rotation + Momentum)
or enter into your browser https://www.amazon.com/dp/B06XRQ1MMS
2. Sector Rotation.
Click here or type the following
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01BQQYZYI
3. For couch potatoes. It is simple, rewarding and requiring only 30 to 60 minutes every month. New book.
Click here for more info.
or enter into your browser: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B072L1NZVB
4. If you're not too deeply into sector rotation. Complete The Art of Investing (Kindle version has over 870 pages) is the most cost effective. It misses several chapters on sector rotation that I wrote recently.
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