The current "Best stocks for 2024" is available from Amazon.com.
---------------------
Past Performances
Management Summary
If the sales of this book series were based on past performances, I should have sold many books, but obviously not.
In 2023, my book beat the market (RSP, similar to SPY but unweighted) by 290% with 8 recommended stocks. The sub lists (Momentum, Year-End and Shorts) all beat the market (RSP or SH for shorts). Even in a poor year for the market in 2022, the primary recommended list is still positive and beat the RSP by a good margin.
Performances of the primary lists of my last six books in this series. There could be minor errors due to rounding, entry errors and limited time in checking .
|
Book |
Stocks |
Return3 |
Ann. |
Beat RSP by1 |
|
Best stocks to buy for 2023 |
8 |
36% |
36% |
290% |
|
Best stocks to buy for 2022 |
106 |
4% |
4% |
153%7 |
|
Best Stocks to buy as of July, 20214 |
8 |
5% |
13% |
487% |
|
Best Stocks for 2021 2nd Edition |
10 |
42%4 |
52% |
220% |
|
Best Stocks for 2021 |
4 |
29% |
44% |
118% |
|
Best Stocks to Buy from Aug, 2020 |
14 |
45% |
45% |
3%5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg. |
9 |
31% |
38% |
184%2 |
1 “Beat RSP by” does not include commissions, dividends and other fees. RSP is a better yardstick of the market than the weighted SPY.
2 If you buy all stocks recommended in the primary lists, you should have an annualized return of about 32% beating RSP by a good margin.
3 Most performances for books published around 12/15 start on 12/15 and end on 12/1 the next year. The exception is 2023 with an ending date of 12/20.
4 Performance: July 15, 2021 to Dec. 1, 2021.
5 Initially I used SPY and this book beat SPY by 25% (now only 3% with RSP).
6 USAK has not been shown in my database.
7 The performance for 2022 should be better. USAK buy price is $17.74 and the last price as of 9/14/,2022 was $31.71, a huge gain of 79%. Some stocks could be delisted, acquired or merged.
No one can predict the future performance of his or her selected stocks. Based on the last performances of the last six books in this series, the chance of success of my selection is good for this book, but it is not guaranteed. Consult your financial advisor before taking any actions.
More details on the performances of these books including sub lists will follow.
Disclaimer. The following is for reference and education only, and I am not liable for any errors. Past performances have nothing to do with future performance especially in this irrational market. There will be round-off errors and/or input errors. Some dates could be a few days off most likely due to trade dates. Performances do not include dividends, commissions and other fees.
Last book in the series: “Best Stocks to Buy for 2023”
Start date: 12/15/2022.
End date: 12/15/2023 for the primary list.
One month for all the short-term sub lists (i.e. 1/17/2023, as 1/25/2023 is not a trading day).
Summary:
|
List (# of stocks) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat RSP or SH1 |
|
Primary list (8) |
36% |
36% |
290% |
|
Momentum (4) |
30% |
330% |
654% |
|
Short (2) |
3% |
38% |
244%1 |
|
Year End (2) |
10% |
112% |
156% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 Compare to SH for shorting, a contra ETF for SPY instead of RSP. Short performance should be less than the actual – for accuracy I should have used the sell price (i.e. Profit / Sell Price).
Details
Primary list’s holding period is for long-term(1 year). This book is several days later than usual (due to vacation), and hence I use 12/15/2023 as the end date.
|
Symbol (8) |
Return |
|
BCBP |
-29% |
|
CCRN |
-22% |
|
CEIX |
37% |
|
OTTR |
38% |
|
SMCI |
272% |
|
STLD |
22% |
|
ULH |
-24% |
|
XOM |
-4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
36% |
|
RSP |
9% |
|
Beat RSP by |
290% |
4 winners and 4 losers.
This selection beats the market (RSP) by a good margin. Although I have had consistent performances beating the market so far in these books, it could not be sustainable. In addition, past performances have nothing to do with the future.
I prefer all my selected stocks that would have small profits like beating the market by 5%. How many ETFs, mutual funds and hedge funds (after the hefty fees) can beat the market by 5%?
The top performer and the chief contributor is SMCI. Partly it is due to AI (Artificial Intelligence). It should rank similarly with NVDA and AMD in providing computer hardware for AI. If you have it, use trailing stops to protect your profits. I prefer to beat the index by 10% without a major contributor.
Short-term lists
There are three short-term sub lists: Momentum, Short and Year-End. These lists are short-term, and hence I use one month after as the end dates. I included 2 months and 3 months for whether we should hold for one more month.
Start date: 12/15/2022. End date: 01/17/2023, 2/15/23 for 2 months and 3/15/2023 for 3 months. I recommend holding them for 1 month.
Momentum (4 stocks)
|
Symbol |
1 M |
Ann. |
2 M |
Ann. |
3 M |
Ann. |
|
ACLS |
23% |
257% |
56% |
328% |
50% |
202% |
|
NINE |
48% |
528% |
4% |
21% |
-46% |
-187% |
|
NR |
21% |
234% |
11% |
65% |
1% |
2% |
|
TDW |
27% |
299% |
42% |
250% |
22% |
88% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
30% |
330% |
28% |
166% |
6% |
26% |
|
RSP |
4% |
44% |
7% |
41% |
-3% |
-12% |
|
Beat RSP by |
654% |
|
304% |
|
310% |
|
This time is quite good. In this case, holding one month is better than two months, just opposite in performance compared to the previous book.
Short selling betting the stocks to go down (2 stocks).
Short selling is not recommended particularly for beginners due to the extra risk. I do not recommend holding the stocks for more than 1 month in this sub list. You need to monitor them weekly or even daily. Close the shorts when they are far outside the range you specify.
|
Symbol |
1 M |
Ann. |
2 M |
Ann. |
3 M |
Ann. |
|
FREY |
3% |
29% |
14% |
83% |
34% |
138% |
|
MVIS |
4% |
47% |
-12% |
-73% |
-11% |
92% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
3% |
38% |
1% |
5% |
23% |
92% |
|
SH |
-2% |
-27% |
-6% |
-35% |
1% |
2% |
|
Beat SH by |
244% |
|
115% |
|
3,867% |
|
For example, the market is up by 44% on an annualized basis, so the shorting without analysis should be -44%, and The positive annualized return of 38% is quite good. For the same reason, I use SH, a contra ETF on SPY, instead of RSP (as I could not find a contra ETF for RSP). My return should be worse than it appears: I used the Buy Price instead of Sell Price in calculation for convenience.
The market is moving downwards and that is why shorting is great. I do not recommend holding too long and one turnover stock could bring down the entire portfolio. It is one of the top returns for all my lists in all 5 books. Do not expect it to be consistent.
Sub list: Year-End
.
|
Symbol |
1 M |
Ann. |
2 M |
Ann. |
3 M |
Ann. |
|
BZH |
3% |
28% |
8% |
47% |
-1% |
-3% |
|
COMM |
18% |
196% |
12% |
69% |
-18% |
-73% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
10% |
112% |
10% |
58% |
-9% |
-38% |
|
RSP |
4% |
44% |
7% |
41% |
-3% |
-12% |
|
Beat RSP by |
156% |
|
41% |
|
-205% |
|
Book #1: “Best Stocks to Buy for 2022”
Start date: 12/15/2021.
End date: 12/01/2022 for the primary list.
End date: 03/20/2022 (market timing determined the date) for the re-recommended list as we should use market timing especially for stocks held over a year.
One month for all the short-term sub lists (i.e. 1/18/2022).
Summary:
|
List (# of stocks) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat RSP |
|
Primary list (8) |
4% |
4% |
153% |
|
Re-recommended (6) |
8% |
29% |
474% |
|
Momentum (5) |
9% |
94% |
4,475% |
|
Short (6) |
32% |
341% |
15,965% |
|
Year End (5) |
3% |
32% |
1,590% |
|
|
|
|
|
Details
Primary list’s holding period is for long-term(1 year). I used 11 months, so I have time to publish the new book that will be published on 12/15/2022 or a few days after.
|
Symbol (11) |
Return |
Annualized |
|
ADES |
-54% |
-56% |
|
AOSL |
-34% |
-35% |
|
BLDR |
-18% |
-19% |
|
BZH |
-37% |
-39% |
|
DVN |
73% |
76% |
|
MLI |
19% |
20% |
|
MTDR |
81% |
84% |
|
NUE |
40% |
41% |
|
SCHN |
-30% |
-31% |
|
UFPI |
-5% |
-5% |
|
USAK |
See below |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
4% |
4% |
|
RSP |
-6% |
-7% |
|
Beat RSP by |
153% |
|
4 winners (actually 5 if including USAK) and 6 losers.
The performance should be better if we included the recommended USAK. This has not been shown in my historical database that has a survival bias. It was either been delisted, acquired or privatized. The recommended price as of 12/15/21 was $17.74 and the last price (09/14/2022) was $31.71 gaining 79% and annualized to 105%.
From Yahoo!Finance: “USA Truck, Inc. (NASDAQ:USAK) today announced the completion of its previously announced sale to DB Schenker, one of the world's leading logistics service providers.
Under the terms of the sale, each issued and outstanding share of USA Truck common stock converted into the right to receive $31.72 in cash. As a result of the completion of the sale, USA Truck's common stock ceased trading on the NASDAQ Global Select Market prior to market open today …”
I recommended market timing in the book. If you followed the recommended market timing, you should have left the market on March 20, 2022 and on that day the return is 12% and annualized to 47% while RSP was -2% (beating RSP by 700% in my rough calculation). For simplicity, I do not calculate the gain to returning to the market using the same market timer. It demonstrates how important market timing is.
Re Recommended (6 stocks)
These stocks have been recommended in my previous books, and recommended again in my last book. The current book does not contain this list.
|
Symbol |
Return |
Ann. |
Return |
Ann. |
|
|
3/20/22 |
|
12/1/22 |
|
|
BG |
25% |
97% |
12% |
12% |
|
HZO |
-21% |
-81% |
-44% |
-46% |
|
MLI |
7% |
27% |
19% |
20% |
|
NUE |
32% |
121% |
38% |
40% |
|
SCHN |
3% |
11% |
-31% |
-33% |
|
UFPI |
0% |
0% |
-5% |
-5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
8% |
|
-2% |
|
|
RSP |
-6% |
|
-7% |
|
|
Beat RSP by |
474% |
|
73% |
|
I recommend you exit these stocks as the market timer described told us to exit on 3/20/22. Their holding period of this sub list is about 15 months already.
Short-term lists
There are three short-term sub lists: Momentum, Short and Year-End. These lists are short-term, and hence I use one month after as the end dates. I included 2 months for whether we should hold for one more month.
Start date: 12/15/2021. End date: 01/18/2022.
Momentum (5 stocks)
|
Symbol |
Return 1 M |
Ann. |
Ret. 2 M |
Ann |
12/1/2022 |
|
ARCB |
-14% |
-150% |
-16% |
-92% |
-25% |
|
FRG |
-7% |
-80% |
-12% |
-67% |
-51% |
|
MRO |
28% |
303% |
36% |
210% |
99% |
|
MUR |
19% |
204% |
24% |
140% |
73% |
|
RFP |
18% |
192% |
-8% |
-46% |
61% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
9% |
94% |
5% |
29% |
31% |
|
RSP |
0% |
-2% |
-2% |
-11% |
-6% |
|
Beat RSP by |
4,475% |
|
366% |
|
466% |
This time is quite good. In this case, holding one month is better than two months, just opposite in performance compared to the previous book. Actually, holding to 12/1/2022 is quite impressive too. MRO and MUR, the top winners, are both in the petroleum sector while REP is in the paper sector.
Short selling betting the stocks to go down (6 stocks).
Short selling is not recommended particularly for beginners due to the extra risk. I do not recommend holding the stocks for more than 1 month in this sub list. You need to monitor them weekly or even daily. Close the shorts when they are far outside the range you specify.
|
Symbol |
Return 1 M |
Ann. |
Ret. 2 M |
Ann |
12/1/2022 |
|
BKKT |
62% |
665% |
39% |
229% |
87% |
|
EOSE |
34% |
363% |
59% |
345% |
87% |
|
FFIE |
-10% |
-1055 |
-1% |
-8% |
93% |
|
LIDR |
41% |
442% |
38% |
224% |
83% |
|
NTRA |
34% |
369% |
25% |
145% |
56% |
|
SMFR |
29% |
3125 |
24% |
140% |
92% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
32% |
341% |
30% |
179% |
83% |
|
RSP |
0% |
-2% |
-2% |
-11% |
-6% |
|
Beat RSP by |
15.965% |
|
1,739% |
|
1,414% |
The market is moving downwards and that is why shorting is great. I do not recommend holding too long and one turnover stock could bring down the entire portfolio. It is one of the top returns for all my lists in all 5 books. Do not expect it to be consistent.
Sub list: Year-End
I do not recommend holding the stocks for more than 1 month.
|
Symbol |
Return 1 M |
Ann. |
Ret. 2 M |
Ann |
12/1/2022 |
|
BDSI |
See below |
|
|
|
|
|
CODX |
2% |
21% |
-17% |
-102% |
-63% |
|
GPN |
15% |
160% |
12% |
73% |
-19% |
|
SLQT |
-12% |
-134% |
-67% |
-395% |
-92% |
|
STRA |
1% |
12% |
-5% |
-28% |
40% |
|
VRTX |
9% |
101% |
11% |
62% |
52% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
3% |
32% |
-13% |
-78% |
-16% |
|
RSP |
0% |
-2% |
-2% |
-11% |
-6% |
|
Beat RSP by |
1.590% |
|
-630% |
|
-399% |
From the above, holding the stocks in this sub list for 1 month in this portfolio is better than holding them two months.
BDSI was delisted (acquired or merged). On March, 22, 2022, it had a stock price of $5.59. The recommended price is $2.59 gaining 116% and annualized to 436%. I cannot find the prices one month and two months after the recommendation.
From Yahoo!Finance:
“BioDelivery Gains on Buyout Deal: Shares of BioDelivery BDSI surged after it announced a merger agreement with Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. COLL whereby the latter will purchase all outstanding shares of BDSI for $5.60 per share in an all-cash transaction. The transaction represents a 54% premium to BDSI stock’s closing price of $3.64 on Feb 11, 2022, and a 65% premium to the 30 trading days volume-weighted average price of $3.40. The transaction is expected to close late in the ongoing quarter.”
Book #2: “Best Stocks to Buy for July, 2021”
Start date: 07/15/2021. End date: 12/01/2021.
Summary:
|
List (# of stocks) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat RSP |
|
Primary list (8) |
5% |
13% |
487% |
|
Re-recommended (4) |
22% |
57% |
2,510% |
|
Momentum (2) |
12% |
137% |
265% |
|
Short (3) |
11% |
128% |
241% |
|
Inflation hedge (5) |
-5% |
-13% |
-705% |
|
Risky (3) |
45% |
117% |
5,275% |
Details
Primary list
|
Symbol (8) |
Return |
Annualized |
|
ATEN |
34% |
91% |
|
DKS |
16% |
42% |
|
HIMX |
-30% |
-79% |
|
JEF |
10% |
28% |
|
MPB |
11% |
30% |
|
MT |
-14% |
-36% |
|
OPY |
8% |
21% |
|
VSTO |
2% |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
5% |
13% |
|
RSP |
1% |
|
|
Beat RSP by |
487% |
|
6 winners and 2 losers. Both losers are foreign companies: HIMX (Taiwan) and MT (Luxembourg). Will avoid foreign countries in the future.
Sub list of the previous recommendations.
Re Recommended (4 stocks)
These stocks have been recommended in my previous books.
|
Symbol |
Return |
Ann. |
|
DSK |
16% |
42% |
|
GTS |
52% |
137% |
|
JEF |
10% |
28% |
|
OPY |
8% |
21% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
22% |
57% |
|
RSP |
1% |
2% |
|
Beat RSP by |
2,510% |
|
This is fantastic and this sub list will be continued in this book. It seems the winners keep on winning.
Short-term lists
There are two bonus lists: Momentum and Short. These lists are short-term, and hence I use one month after as the end dates. I included 2 months for whether we should hold for one more month.
The short-terms lists may not be appropriate depending on when you buy this book.
Start date: 07/15/2021. End date: 08/15/2021. I also included returns for 2 months.
Momentum (2 stocks)
|
Symbol |
Return 1 M |
Ann. |
Ret. 2 M |
Ann |
|
CLAR |
-3% |
-30% |
-2% |
-13% |
|
CROX |
27% |
303% |
33% |
193% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
12% |
137% |
15% |
90% |
|
RSP |
3% |
37% |
3% |
17% |
|
Beat RSP by |
265% |
|
440% |
|
This time is quite good, but not in the previous book. In this case, holding two months is better than one month in “Best RSP by”.
Short selling betting the stocks to go down (3 stocks).
Short selling is not recommended particularly for beginners due to the extra risk.
|
Symbol |
Return 1 M |
Ann. |
Ret. 2 M |
Ann |
|
CCL |
-4% |
-44% |
-6% |
-33% |
|
NCLH |
-1% |
-8% |
-3% |
-15% |
|
MILE |
38% |
435% |
45% |
264% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
11% |
128% |
12% |
72% |
|
RSP |
3% |
37% |
2% |
17% |
|
Beat RSP by |
241% |
|
330% |
|
CCL and NCLN are cruise liners and this sector did not perform well in this period. For diversification, you should only trade one stock in this sector.
Sub list to hedge inflation
|
Commodity (5) |
Return |
Ann. |
|
GLD |
-3% |
-8% |
|
IYM |
-1% |
-3% |
|
SLV |
-17% |
-41% |
|
USO |
-4% |
-11% |
|
XLP |
-1% |
-4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
-5% |
-13% |
|
RSP |
1% |
2% |
|
Beat RSP by |
-705% |
|
This list does not perform even though we had high inflation. It is due to excessive printing of money that makes stocks (as opposed to commodities) more attractive. However, I still recommend a small portion of your portfolio invested in this group. This is the only loser in this specific book.
|
Commodity (3) |
Return |
Ann. |
|
EVC |
16% |
43% |
|
NUE |
10% |
26% |
|
YELL |
108% |
283% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
45% |
117% |
|
RSP |
1% |
2% |
|
Beat RSP by |
5,275% |
|
It turns out this list has the best performing in this book. Nothing risked, nothing gained. When the market is risky, do not bet on this list. I had YELL in my account at one time and it was stopped out. Be careful on using stop orders on volatile and low volume stocks.
Book #3: “Best Stocks for 2021 2nd Edition”
Start date: 02/08/2021 (the publish date). End date: 12/01/2021.
Summary:
|
List (# of stocks) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat RSP |
|
Primary list (10) |
42% |
52% |
220% |
|
Momentum (7) |
-3% |
-35% |
-170% |
|
Short (3) |
28% |
335% |
573% |
Details:
As of 7/1/2021, CTB has been delisted and most likely it was acquired. The price on the recommended date is $35 and the price on 6/17/2021 is 40.12, and it is a good winner in this group. Thus, the actual performance should be better than the following table. From my last update on 4/24/2021, it returned 44% and 217% annualized.
|
Symbol |
Return |
Annualized |
|
BG |
14% |
17% |
|
CBNK |
84% |
103% |
|
CTB |
N/A |
N/A |
|
CUBI |
117% |
144% |
|
HMST |
20% |
-24% |
|
JEF |
40% |
50% |
|
MLI |
45% |
55% |
|
OPY |
27% |
34% |
|
TPVG |
22% |
27% |
|
UVSP |
9% |
11% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
42% |
52% |
|
RSP |
10% |
16% |
|
Beat RSP by |
220% |
|
Short-term lists
End date: 03/10/2021 (1 month) and 04/10/2021 (2 months).
Momentum (7 stocks)
|
Symbol |
Return |
Ann. |
|
ATGE |
-6% |
-68% |
|
ATRS |
-11% |
-134% |
|
CMRE |
15% |
182% |
|
REGI |
-26% |
-318% |
|
RIO |
0% |
-1% |
|
SPWH |
0% |
-1% |
|
WIRE |
8% |
96% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
-3% |
-35% |
|
RSP |
4% |
-50% |
|
Beat RSP by |
-170% |
|
Short selling betting the stocks to go down (3 stocks).
|
Symbol |
Return |
Ann. |
|
HYLN |
16% |
191% |
|
NEXT |
2% |
332% |
|
RMO |
40% |
482% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
28% |
335% |
|
RSP |
4% |
50% |
|
Beat RSP by |
573% |
|
Book #4: “Best Stocks for 2021”
Start Date: 12/10/2020. End Date: 12/01/2021.
Year-End lists are short-term, and the End Date is 01/10/2021. I provide 2nd month and 3rd month holding to determine what is a better holding period for the current selection.
Summary:
|
List (# of stocks) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat RSP |
|
Primary list (4) |
29% |
52% |
118% |
|
Primary list without GLD (3) |
39% |
71% |
|
|
Secondary list (6) |
46% |
84% |
|
|
Year-End list (5) |
5% |
|
|
|
Secondary list for Year-End (5) |
-1% |
|
|
|
Secondary list without foreign countries (2) |
14% |
|
|
Details
1. Primary list.
|
Primary List (4) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat RSP |
|
DSK |
110% |
113% |
|
|
ESGR |
13% |
13% |
|
|
GLD |
-3% |
-4% |
|
|
OTTR |
54% |
56% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
43% |
44% |
118% |
|
RSP |
20% |
|
|
2. Primary list without GLD.
|
Primary List (stocks = 3) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat RSP |
|
DSK |
110% |
113% |
|
|
ESGR |
13% |
13% |
|
|
OTTR |
54% |
56% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
59% |
61% |
196% |
|
RSP |
20% |
|
|
GLD is a hedge for inflation, and it should not be included in the primary list, but I did.
3. Secondary list.
|
Secondary List (stocks = 5) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat RSP |
|
BCC |
43% |
44% |
|
|
GPI |
57% |
59% |
|
|
HEAR |
23% |
23% |
|
|
HVT |
13% |
13% |
|
|
HZO |
69% |
70% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
41% |
42% |
105% |
|
RSP |
20% |
20% |
|
Most of the stock selected in this sub list have high dumping by the insiders.
4. Year-End Loser list.
From 12/10/2020 to 1/10/2021. Include the performances keeping this portfolio for 2 and 3 months. I use the old SPY as the yardstick without changing it to RSP for saving my time, and they should be quite similar.
|
Year-End (5 ) |
Return |
Ann % |
|
|
|
Hold period |
1 Month |
1 Month |
2 Months |
3 Months |
|
BCOR |
20% |
224% |
28% |
26% |
|
CEPU |
-10% |
-114% |
-10% |
-17% |
|
EEX |
-8% |
-94% |
-3% |
30% |
|
GANG |
17% |
191% |
38% |
62% |
|
STFC |
9% |
105% |
1% |
22% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
5% |
63% |
11% |
25% |
|
SPY |
3% |
37% |
6% |
6% |
|
Beat SPY |
68% |
|
70% |
298% |
The above result suggests us to hold the stocks for 3 months instead of 1. It could be due to the better performance of GANG from 17% to 62%.
4A. Year-End Loser Secondary list
|
Year-End ( 5 stocks) |
Return |
Ann % |
Beat SPY |
Beat SPY |
|
Hold period |
1 Month |
1 Month |
2 Months |
3 Months |
|
ADES |
-4% |
-47% |
3% |
3% |
|
BMA |
-17% |
-190% |
-14% |
-18% |
|
DXC |
14% |
163% |
3% |
17% |
|
PAM |
-12% |
-140% |
-5% |
-3% |
|
PLCE |
15% |
166% |
68% |
71% |
|
Average |
-1% |
|
12% |
14% |
|
SPY |
3% |
|
6% |
6% |
|
Beat SPY |
-125% |
|
87% |
124% |
It indicates that holding 3 months for this sub list is better in performance. The foreign stocks do not perform (will avoid in future books), but the performance has improved immensely for holding for 3 months.
4B. Year-End Loser Secondary list with US companies only.
|
Year-End ( 2 stocks) |
Return |
Ann % |
Beat SPY |
Beat SPY |
|
Hold period |
1 Month |
1 Month |
2 Months |
3 Months |
|
DXC |
14% |
163% |
3% |
17% |
|
PLCE |
15% |
166% |
68% |
71% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
14% |
164% |
36% |
44% |
|
SPY |
3% |
|
6% |
6% |
|
Beat SPY |
342% |
|
464% |
605% |
This list turns out to have the best performance among the three year-end lists.
Book #5: “Best Stocks to buy from August, 2020”
The performance is the returns from 07/28/2020 to 07/28/2021 for about 1 year. All 14 selected stocks are winners. Again, dividends and fees have not been included. CMCSA and FDX are big winners profiting from the pandemic. True EY is obtained at the time of evaluation, about a year ago.
|
Symbol |
Sector |
True EY |
Return 07/28/21 |
Ann. Return |
|
ABBV |
Drug |
7% |
23% |
23% |
|
ABT |
Drug |
3% |
21% |
21% |
|
CHE |
Diversified |
4% |
0% |
0% |
|
CMCSA |
Media |
11% |
34% |
34% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FDX |
Transport |
8% |
69% |
69% |
|
GTS |
Health |
N/A |
23% |
23% |
|
JNJ |
Drug |
6% |
17% |
17% |
|
MCK |
Drug |
8% |
33% |
33% |
|
MSFT |
Software |
4% |
42% |
42% |
|
SCHN |
Metal |
10% |
171% |
171% |
|
SMCI |
Computer |
11% |
27% |
27% |
|
UFPI |
Building |
10% |
29% |
29% |
|
UNH |
Health |
9% |
36% |
36% |
|
ZBRA |
Computer |
5% |
101% |
101% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg. |
|
|
45% |
45% |
|
|
|
RSP |
43% |
43% |
|
|
Beat RSP |
|
|
3% |
At one time UFPI was a loser.
It did not beat the yardstick RSP by a wide margin. However, 43% is quite unsustainable in the future. Initially I used SPY and it beat SPY by 25% and now only 3% with RSP.
Methodology
· ‘Beat RSP by “= (Return – RSP’s return) / RSPY’s return) with adjustments to negative numbers.
· Commissions, dividends and fees are not included. Hence, my performance ratios usually look better than they actually are.
· Past performances have nothing to do with future performances.
So far, the last two books have performed well with the market conditions.
The performances are for reference only. These incredible performances are not sustainable. Consult your financial advisor before taking any action. The author and the publisher are not liable for any errors.
· Start date usually is the publish date, and end date usually is the publish date of the next book in the series or one year later for the primary lists. Dates could be one or two days off due to non-trading days.
· Short-term trades such as Year-End strategy is usually having one month duration.
· True EY is the earnings yield considering debts and cash. Compare it to one-year Treasuries and CDs which are basically risk free. It is the reciprocal of “EV/EBITDA”. It is obtained from Yahoo!Finance (under Statistics).
· Most figures are rounded up for easy reading, but not in the calculation in “Beat RSP by”.
· Once in a while, the performance is not correct due to many uncontrolled events such as delisting a stock (due to bankruptcy, merger…).
· I cannot get the performances of some stocks due to the survival bias (i.e. the delisted stocks are no longer in the database) such as Cooper Tire.
· From 12/2021 on, only one book such as “Best Stock for 2022” will be published each year due to low demand.
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