Ukraine and stocks

 

 

By March, 1, 2022, the war seemed like it would drag on. Here are what ETFs we should buy from the date and the performances one month later.

 

Symbol	Description	1 M	3 M	6 M	9 M
		4/1/22	6/1/22	9/1/22	12/1/22
DBA	Agriculture	1%	2%	-5%	-7%
FXE	Contra Euro	-1%	-5%	-11%	-6%
GLD	Gold	2%	-5%	-13%	-8%
PPA	Aero + Defense	-1%	-6%	-8%	3%
UNG	US Natural Gas	24%	84%	97%	29%
USO	US Oil	3%	19%	-1%	-2%
XLE	Energy	8%	24%	10%	27%
Average		5%	16%	10%	5%
SPY		5%	-5%	-8%	-5%

 

I cannot find an ETF dedicated to defense. You can buy a basket of defense stocks and ignore the airline stocks that can be found in PPA. We can also short an ETF on the EU rather than shorting the Euro (using FXE in this portfolio just for convenience). The first month performs the same as SPY (the market to most), and hence you can start the portfolio a month later.

 

From the above, besides LNG, USO and XLE, all other ETFs turn negative after 6 months. Using trailing stops could let you exit from losing money. You can also use market timing (Death Cross) for ETFs to exit. However, even if you stay in the above portfolio for 9 months, you still beat SPY by a good margin.