Disclaimer: All my books and views are for educational purposes
only. Consult your financial advisors before taking any actions. All the
links are the opinions of the authors, not mine. I am not responsible
for any errors and/or opinions. All information and prices are subject
to change without notice.
The current book of this series is available from Amazon.
“Best stocks” series. A new book may be published on Dec. 15 every
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BQCLCZP9
Detail:
====================================================================================
Past Performances
Management Summary
The 2022 performance on my primary recommendation from my last book, “Best stocks to buy for 2022)”, were based on the end date of 12/01/2022.
If the sales on this book series were based on past performances, I should have sold many books, but not. Also, I could be a rich man, but obviously I did not follow my own recommendations all the time.
Disclaimer. The following is for reference and education only, and I am not liable for any errors. Past performances have nothing to do with future performance especially in this irrational market. There will be round-off errors and/or input errors. Some dates could be a few days off.
Even in a down year in 2022, the primary recommended list is still positive and beat the RSP by a good margin.
RSP, an unweighted ETF, is a better representation of large stocks than SPY (simulating the S&P 500 stock index). Again, fees and dividends are not included. The primary lists are for long-term (a year to me). There may be round-off errors.
Performances of the primary lists of my last five books in this series:
|
Book |
Stocks |
Return |
Ann. |
Beat RSP by1 |
|
Best stocks to buy for 2022 |
106 |
4% |
4% |
153%7 |
|
Best Stocks to buy as of July, 20214 |
8 |
5% |
13% |
487% |
|
Best Stocks for 2021 2nd Edition |
10 |
42%3 |
52%3 |
220% |
|
Best Stocks for 2021 |
4 |
29% |
44% |
118% |
|
Best Stocks to Buy from Aug, 2020 |
14 |
45% |
45% |
3%5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg. |
9 |
25% |
32% |
196%2 |
1 “Beat RSP by” does not include commissions, fees and dividends.
2 If you buy all stocks recommended in the primary lists (most of my books also provided sub lists), you should have an annualized returns of about 32% and beat RSP (representing the market) by about 196% without considering commissions, dividends and fees.
3 CTB selected in “Best Stocks for 2021 2nd Edition” has been delisted (most likely it was acquired). It is my better winner (it returned 44% and 217% annualized on 4/22/2021), and hence the return of this list should be better than the stated.
4 Performance: July 15, 2021 to Dec. 1, 2021.
5 Initially I used SPY and this book beat SPY by 25% (now only 3% with RSP).
6 USAT has not been shown in my database.
7 The performance for 2022 should be better. USAK buy price is $17.74 and the last price as of 9/14/,2022 was $31.71, a huge gain of 79%. If you followed the market timing, you should have left the market in March, 2022.
No one can predict the future performance of his or her selected stocks. Based on the last performances of the last five books in this series, the chance of success of my selection is good for this book.
The rest of this article describes the performances of the stocks in more detail on the last 5 books in this series with the last book first. Each book has a primary list and may have sub lists.
Book #1: “Best Stocks to Buy for 2022”
Start date: 12/15/2021.
End date: 12/01/2022 for the primary list.
End date: 03/20/2022 (market timing determined the date) for the re-recommended list as we should use market timing especially for stocks held over a year.
One month for all the short-term sub lists (i.e. 1/18/2022).
Summary:
|
List (# of stocks) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat RSP |
|
Primary list (8) |
4% |
4% |
153% |
|
Re-recommended (6) |
8% |
29% |
474% |
|
Momentum (5) |
9% |
94% |
4,475% |
|
Short (6) |
32% |
341% |
15,965% |
|
Year End (5) |
3% |
32% |
1,590% |
|
|
|
|
|
Details
Primary list’s holding period is for long-term(1 year). I used 11 months, so I have time to publish the new book that will be published on 12/15/2022 or a few days after.
|
Symbol (11) |
Return |
Annualized |
|
ADES |
-54% |
-56% |
|
AOSL |
-34% |
-35% |
|
BLDR |
-18% |
-19% |
|
BZH |
-37% |
-39% |
|
DVN |
73% |
76% |
|
MLI |
19% |
20% |
|
MTDR |
81% |
84% |
|
NUE |
40% |
41% |
|
SCHN |
-30% |
-31% |
|
UFPI |
-5% |
-5% |
|
USAK |
See below |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
4% |
4% |
|
RSP |
-6% |
-7% |
|
Beat RSP by |
153% |
|
4 winners (actually 5 if including USAK) and 6 losers.
The performance should be better if we included the recommended USAK. This has not been shown in my historical database that has a survival bias. It was either been delisted, acquired or privatized. The recommended price as of 12/15/21 was $17.74 and the last price (09/14/2022) was $31.71 gaining 79% and annualized to 105%.
From Yahoo!Finance: “USA Truck, Inc. (NASDAQ:USAK) today announced the completion of its previously announced sale to DB Schenker, one of the world's leading logistics service providers.
Under the terms of the sale, each issued and outstanding share of USA Truck common stock converted into the right to receive $31.72 in cash. As a result of the completion of the sale, USA Truck's common stock ceased trading on the NASDAQ Global Select Market prior to market open today …”
I recommended market timing in the book. If you followed the recommended market timing, you should have left the market on March 20, 2022 and on that day the return is 12% and annualized to 47% while RSP was -2% (beating RSP by 700% in my rough calculation). For simplicity, I do not calculate the gain to returning to the market using the same market timer. It demonstrates how important market timing is.
Re Recommended (6 stocks)
These stocks have been recommended in my previous books, and recommended again in my last book. The current book does not contain this list.
|
Symbol |
Return |
Ann. |
Return |
Ann. |
|
|
3/20/22 |
|
12/1/22 |
|
|
BG |
25% |
97% |
12% |
12% |
|
HZO |
-21% |
-81% |
-44% |
-46% |
|
MLI |
7% |
27% |
19% |
20% |
|
NUE |
32% |
121% |
38% |
40% |
|
SCHN |
3% |
11% |
-31% |
-33% |
|
UFPI |
0% |
0% |
-5% |
-5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
8% |
|
-2% |
|
|
RSP |
-6% |
|
-7% |
|
|
Beat RSP by |
474% |
|
73% |
|
I recommend you exit these stocks as the market timer described told us to exit on 3/20/22. Their holding period of this sub list is about 15 months already.
Short-term lists
There are three short-term sub lists: Momentum, Short and Year-End. These lists are short-term, and hence I use one month after as the end dates. I included 2 months for whether we should hold for one more month.
Start date: 12/15/2021. End date: 01/18/2022.
Momentum (5 stocks)
|
Symbol |
Return 1 M |
Ann. |
Ret. 2 M |
Ann |
12/1/2022 |
|
ARCB |
-14% |
-150% |
-16% |
-92% |
-25% |
|
FRG |
-7% |
-80% |
-12% |
-67% |
-51% |
|
MRO |
28% |
303% |
36% |
210% |
99% |
|
MUR |
19% |
204% |
24% |
140% |
73% |
|
RFP |
18% |
192% |
-8% |
-46% |
61% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
9% |
94% |
5% |
29% |
31% |
|
RSP |
0% |
-2% |
-2% |
-11% |
-6% |
|
Beat RSP by |
4,475% |
|
366% |
|
466% |
This time is quite good. In this case, holding one month is better than two months, just opposite in performance compared to the previous book. Actually, holding to 12/1/2022 is quite impressive too. MRO and MUR, the top winners, are both in the petroleum sector while REP is in the paper sector.
Short selling betting the stocks to go down (6 stocks).
Short selling is not recommended particularly for beginners due to the extra risk. I do not recommend holding the stocks for more than 1 month in this sub list. You need to monitor them weekly or even daily. Close the shorts when they are far outside the range you specify.
|
Symbol |
Return 1 M |
Ann. |
Ret. 2 M |
Ann |
12/1/2022 |
|
BKKT |
62% |
665% |
39% |
229% |
87% |
|
EOSE |
34% |
363% |
59% |
345% |
87% |
|
FFIE |
-10% |
-1055 |
-1% |
-8% |
93% |
|
LIDR |
41% |
442% |
38% |
224% |
83% |
|
NTRA |
34% |
369% |
25% |
145% |
56% |
|
SMFR |
29% |
3125 |
24% |
140% |
92% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
32% |
341% |
30% |
179% |
83% |
|
RSP |
0% |
-2% |
-2% |
-11% |
-6% |
|
Beat RSP by |
15.965% |
|
1,739% |
|
1,414% |
The market is moving downwards and that is why shorting is great. I do not recommend holding too long and one turnover stock could bring down the entire portfolio. It is one of the top returns for all my lists in all 5 books. Do not expect it to be consistent.
Sub list: Year-End
I do not recommend holding the stocks for more than 1 month.
|
Symbol |
Return 1 M |
Ann. |
Ret. 2 M |
Ann |
12/1/2022 |
|
BDSI |
See below |
|
|
|
|
|
CODX |
2% |
21% |
-17% |
-102% |
-63% |
|
GPN |
15% |
160% |
12% |
73% |
-19% |
|
SLQT |
-12% |
-134% |
-67% |
-395% |
-92% |
|
STRA |
1% |
12% |
-5% |
-28% |
40% |
|
VRTX |
9% |
101% |
11% |
62% |
52% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
3% |
32% |
-13% |
-78% |
-16% |
|
RSP |
0% |
-2% |
-2% |
-11% |
-6% |
|
Beat RSP by |
1.590% |
|
-630% |
|
-399% |
From the above, holding the stocks in this sub list for 1 month in this portfolio is better than holding them two months.
BDSI was delisted (acquired or merged). On March, 22, 2022, it had a stock price of $5.59. The recommended price is $2.59 gaining 116% and annualized to 436%. I cannot find the prices one month and two months after the recommendation.
From Yahoo!Finance:
“BioDelivery Gains on Buyout Deal: Shares of BioDelivery BDSI surged after it announced a merger agreement with Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. COLL whereby the latter will purchase all outstanding shares of BDSI for $5.60 per share in an all-cash transaction. The transaction represents a 54% premium to BDSI stock’s closing price of $3.64 on Feb 11, 2022, and a 65% premium to the 30 trading days volume-weighted average price of $3.40. The transaction is expected to close late in the ongoing quarter.”
No comments:
Post a Comment