Winners as of 3/21/2022

 

 

I would like to find out the common characteristics of my winners, and that would help me to spot future winners in the current market. They are my current positions from my major taxable account and my son’s and they are all recent buys.

 

At first, I wanted to include more losers, as I can learn more from the losers that I try to avoid in the future. I can only find one big loser. There is a good chance I have sold the losers already to offset my short-term gains from my short account. From my memory, they are a few big losers.

 

Stocks	Bought	Return	My Score	Screen
AA	11/21	97%	37	Fid
AMPY	01/22	70%	22	BG
COP	10/21	40%	35	PG
DVN	11/21	43%	44	PG
GTE	02/22	54%
MOS	03/21	112%	15	Fid
TMST	01/22	47%	38	Ford
Loser:
CPIX	12/21	-46%

 

The other winners are: AEL 23%, BY 11%, RBB 26% and STXB 19%; COPX 11%, HBP 28% from my son’s account. I have some losers with a loss of less than 10%.

 

Explanation:

·         Sector is important. AA, MOS and TMST belong to the commodity sector while AMPY, COP, DVN and GTE belong to the energy sector. I have not used the top-down approach, but the screens selected them for me.

·         My passing score (a sum of selected metrics with weights) for the long term is 15. MOS made it as it had a high short-term score. I did not have a full analysis, as I felt it was a good buy by looking at the forward P/E. I did not find a score of CPIX that I could have avoided if I did a full evaluation. My full evaluation is about 15 minutes per stock by plugging the numbers from Finviz, Fidelity and a subscribed service to get a score.

·         Two screens (Fid and Ford) are from my modified screens from Fidelity; for some reason they are not in my recent, top performers in my screens, that belong to BG. BG (described briefly in some of my books) and PG are modified screens from a subscribed service.

·         The above is a review of the performance of screens, and there should be another one to review the performances of the metrics such as P/E.

·         I reviewed most of my losers from other accounts. I made some common mistakes. I did not evaluate some losers in detail; I was lazy. Some losers had low scores.

·         The key of success for this period is sector such as energy and commodities. As of 4/15, SPY was down by 1.21%, my major broker showed me my account was up by .2%, a difference of 1.4%. I do have a lot of cash, commodities, energy, contra ETFs (which did not do well in 2021).

·         The annuity with no cash and no contra funds was down by only 0.19%. They are High Income (0%), Consumer Staples (-0.15%), Value Strategies (-0.12%) and Materials (-0.33%).

·         Canada having similar resources as Russia would benefit from the Ukraine war. Instead of betting individual companies, I will place buy orders of an ETF for Canada such as EWC.