Ukraine

 

My personal opinions as follows may not be reflected in most of the media.

If there were a war with Ukraine, it would be good for the U.S. military suppliers and also would dilute the war atmosphere in the South China Sea. Recently we have self-inflicted damages of our nuclear submarine and our F35-C, which are our top weapons.  Hopefully, they are just unavoidable in new weapons; many suspect the lack of training, implementation and quality control. If there were no war in Ukraine, Biden would claim the credit.

 

Most likely the war will not happen. Russia would not want another war as it would drag down their economy from previous experiences. So is the U.S., as we cannot have two wars at the same time. In addition, it would give China a chance to reunite (or invade depending on which side you are on) Taiwan. China is trying her best to reunite the country peacefully, but using force is still possible, especially when Taiwan declares independence.

 

The major reason for no war is the EU heading with Germany and France would not want to engage in the war for their own benefits. Most countries in the EU depend on Russia’s supply of natural gas (about 41%), oil (about 30%) and coal (about 47%). Some European countries depend on energy imports from Russia almost 100%. The U.S. is about the second importer of energy to Europe.

 

Most likely Ukraine would not join the EU and NATO. If there were a war, there would be refugees from Ukraine and the EU has had a hard time  accommodating refugees in the last few years. So far, all talks and no commitment to send soldiers.

 

Ukraine has been the sole loser since their president has been pro U.S. Ukraine used to be the most prosperous country in the region, and now one of the poorest. Russia cannot tolerate Ukraine joining NATO, the same reason for not letting Russia to set up missiles in Cuba. It is better to leave Ukraine as a buffer zone as Finland neighboring Russia has been doing by not joining NATO. The next Ukraine president could be pro Russia if citizens are tired at the thought of wars.

 

Follow the money. The U.S. (a new energy export country) and Russia are the winners with the rising oil prices. Germany is suffering from the high oil price. The UK and Australia do not gain much but they are our running dogs. Most EU countries do not want refugees flooding into their countries. China would benefit, as the U.S. focus would be redirected. If there is a real war, then everyone would suffer. The U.S. would also suffer from high oil prices and the stock market.  However, the U.S.’s defense sector and energy suppliers would benefit.

 

As a common citizen, I do not like wars at all. I have heard many horrible stories on how the Japanese killed Chinese citizens mercilessly during WW2. The US has not experienced these sufferings in our own land. During wars, we have many youths sent back in body bags; they should enjoy the best time of their life. It is also discrimination, wealth gap and inequality as most of these youths are in these categories. If we send the children of our politicians, there will be no war started by us. Hope major powers do not intervene with other countries’ conflicts.

 

The above has not considered politics, which is unpredictable. For example, Biden would start a war to secure his position in the coming election. If there were a war, very seldom the president would not be elected. Biden in his old age may not want to be the next president and his vice president does not seem to be qualified.

 

Biden. Smart politicians usually do not want to specify a date or an event that is not controlled by themselves. Biden set up a date (Feb., 26, 2022) for Russia’s invasion, which was controlled by Russia’s Putin. There was no invasion on the date. Biden lost some of his credibility. Many rich folks and high officials left Ukraine.  The U.S. market crashed on the day while oil and gold prices rose partly due to Biden’s wrong prediction.

Investor. We need to wear two hats: one for humanity and one for investing. My first hat does not like wars and the second one likes wars or prepares for wars as an investor. They are contractionary. If you feel guilty, donate your loot (from investing) to charities specific for your clause for humanity.

 

“2/12/2022” is one of my best days in investing. S&P 500 was down by 1.9% and I was up by 1.2% in my on-line statement of my main broker. It is a difference of 3.1% due to owning Contra ETFs, gold and silver EFTs and energy stocks. The market would most likely rise when there is no war.

Update 2/24/2022. Russia invaded Ukraine partly due to no military participation from the U.S. Ukraine and her citizens are sole losers while Russia will suffer from the sanctions. There was no big plunge in the U.S. stock market. I expect the oil prices to stay at high levels for a long while. Hope the war will end soon. I predicted the next president of Ukraine would be pro Russia and Ukraine would not join NATO for a long while. The resistance would last for a while, and it is hard to fight against the trained military with modern weapons. It is a sad day for mankind. All the parties should be blamed: Putin, Biden, the governor of Ukraine and the voters who elected a comedian as a president.  

Winners and losers. The U.S. will gain a lot at least initially. The EU would side with us. The EU will import more expensive oil and gas from us instead of from Russia; the Nord Stream II would have financial problems. Our defense industry sector would gain a lot of sales. Inflation starting with oil prices would be another problem for us. Our USD should appreciate when some money from Europe flows to USD. However, many countries including China that are not friendly with us may dump USD and our US treasuries. Hence, our USD as a reserve currency will be shaken.  

 

Floods of refugees would be another headache for the EU; currently most went to Poland). Russian currency has lost about 30% in the first week. Many lives have been lost and many have been suffering in Ukraine.

 

China is a winner if there will not be a sanction on China for helping Russia. Russia will increase trade with China for no other better options. Taiwan should be afraid, as there is no major military help to Ukraine in case of invasion from China.