Not considering dividends and fees, my last three books in this series for the last year have beaten the SPY (the market to most) by 110%, 71% and 25% from the publish date to 07/01/2021.
My new book in this series titled “Best stocks to buy as of July, 2021” has been just released in Amazon.com on 07/15/2021. For more description, please click here, or type the following in your browser.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B099KQ9DSV
The following is the detail on the performance.
Past Performances
Management Summary as of 7/01/21
The books in this series should be available in 7/15 and 12/15 in each year, but it is not a promise. I use the opening prices of 7/1/21 to update the performance info, so I can have more time to research stocks for this new book. Most are value stocks in the primary lists. The momentum stocks such as FAANG were doing very well in 2020, and SPY has more weights on these stocks; hence beating SPY is not easy in 2020.
This article “Past Performances” (not the rest of the book) can be freely distributed with mentioning the title of this book. This is for reference only, and I am not liable for any errors. The following performances are from my last three books in this series.
The following table does not always format right.
Book * # Stocks * Return *Ann Return * Beat SPY by
Best stocks 2021 2nd Edition 10 20% 52% 110%
Best stocks for 2021 4 29% 52% 71%
Best socks for 8/2020 14 42% 45% 25%
Avg. 9 31% 50% 69%
|
Book |
Stocks |
Return |
Ann. |
Beat SPY by1 |
|
Best Stocks for 2021 2nd Edition |
10 |
20% |
52%3 |
110% |
|
Best Stocks for 2021 |
4 |
29% |
52% |
71% |
|
Best Stocks to Buy from Aug, 2020 |
14 |
42% |
45% |
25% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg. |
9 |
31% |
50% |
69%2 |
1 See Methodology. “Beat SPY by” does not include commissions and dividends that would increase this ratio for winners.
2 If you buy all stocks recommended in the primary lists (secondary lists are also described separately), you should have an annualized returns of 50% and beat SPY (representing the market) by about 69% without considering dividends and fees. If this average is less than 2%, do not buy the book until it will work again; I need to change my strategies to meet the current market conditions.
3 CTB selected in “Best Book for 2021 2nd Edition” has been delisted (most likely has been acquired). It is my better winner (it returned 44% and 217% annualized on 4/22/2021), and hence the return of the portfolio should be better than the stated.
You buy this book or similar books because you expect the selected stocks are profitable. A 1,000+ page book with a poor performance record would cost you money. Even a one-page book will make you money if the recommended stocks perform, as you are paying for the exhaustive research behind the selection.
No one can predict the future performance of his or her selected stocks. Based on the last year of the books in this series, the chance of success of my selection is good for this book. If it continues to work, the price of the book is peanut. If it does not, it would be harmful even if it is free.
I have many strategies (same as screens) and I usually choose those strategies that work well recently. The screened stocks will be compared to my own criteria with some exceptions. Hence, most are value stocks that should be better positioned to a down market. I do attempt to time the market as described in this book. I bought many of the stocks I recommended. Some buy orders have not been executed as they had risen too fast at the gate.
There are many vendors recommending stocks and showing their ‘fantastic’ results that they selected their favorable periods, or trading with the best prices of the day. Some showed you the returns of the big winners, but not the big losers. I show you the performances of my last 3 books. Past performances have nothing to do with future performances. Refer to Disclaimer under Introduction.
The rest of the article describes the performances of the stocks in more detail on the last three books in this series. Each book has a primary list and any sub lists.
Book #1: “Best Stocks for 2021 2nd Edition”
Start date: 02/08/2021. End date: 07/01/2021.
CTB has been delisted as of 7/1/2021. The price on the recommended date is $35 and the price on 6/17/2021 is 40.12, and it is my better winner. From my last update on 4/24/2021, it returned 44% and 217% annualized.
|
Symbol |
Return |
Annualized |
|
BG |
5% |
14% |
|
CBNK |
40% |
103% |
|
CTB |
N/A |
N/A |
|
CUBI |
49% |
126% |
|
HMST |
-1% |
-1% |
|
JEF |
28% |
72% |
|
MLI |
14% |
36% |
|
OPY |
34% |
88% |
|
TPVG |
6% |
15% |
|
UVSP |
5% |
13% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
20% |
52% |
|
SPY |
10% |
25% |
|
Beat SPY by |
110% |
|
Short-term lists
There are two bonus lists: Momentum and Short. These lists are short-term, and hence I use one month as the end dates.
Start date: 02/08/2021. End date: 03/10/2021.
Momentum (7 stocks)
|
Symbol |
Return |
Ann. |
|
ATGE |
-6% |
-68% |
|
ATRS |
-11% |
-134% |
|
CMRE |
15% |
182% |
|
REGI |
-26% |
-318% |
|
RIO |
0% |
-1% |
|
SPWH |
0% |
-1% |
|
WIRE |
8% |
96% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
-3% |
-35% |
|
SPY |
0% |
-3% |
|
Beat SPY by |
-1100% |
|
Short selling betting the stocks to go down (3 stocks).
|
Symbol |
Return |
Ann. |
|
HYLN |
16% |
191% |
|
NEXT |
2% |
332% |
|
RMO |
40% |
482% |
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
28% |
335% |
|
SPY |
0% |
-3% |
|
Beat SPY by |
11,571% |
|
Since SPY’s return is close to zero, the
“Best SPY by” has no meaning. This momentum list does not perform, but the
short list does.
The short-term lists may not be provided in future books, as they are too volatile and have little value to readers due to time span from the initial publish date.
Book #2: “Best Stocks for 2021”
Start Date: 12/10/2020. End Date: 07/01/2021.
Besides the primary list of recommended stocks, I have several other lists. Year-End lists are short-term, and the End Date is 01/10/2021. I provide 2nd month and 3rd month holding to determine what is a better holding period for the current selection.
Summary:
|
List (# of stocks) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat SPY |
|
Primary list (4) |
29% |
52% |
71% |
|
Primary list without GLD (3) |
39% |
71% |
135% |
|
Secondary list (6) |
46% |
84% |
177% |
|
Year-End list (5 ) |
5% |
|
68% |
|
Secondary list for Year-End (5) |
-1% |
|
-125% |
|
Secondary list without foreign countries (2) |
14% |
|
342%1 |
Details
1. Primary list.
|
Primary List (stocks = 4) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat SPY |
|
DSK |
84% |
151% |
|
|
ESGR |
20% |
35% |
|
|
GLD |
-4% |
-7% |
|
|
OTTR |
15% |
27% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
29% |
52% |
71% |
|
SPY |
14% |
|
|
2. Primary list without GLD.
|
Primary List (stocks = 3) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat SPY |
|
DSK |
84% |
151% |
|
|
ESGR |
20% |
35% |
|
|
OTTR |
15% |
27% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
39% |
71% |
135% |
|
SPY |
17% |
|
|
GLD is a hedge for inflation, and it should not be included in the primary list, but I did.
3. Secondary list.
|
Secondary List (stocks = 5) |
Return |
Annualized |
Beat SPY |
|
BCC |
46% |
126% |
|
|
GPI |
35% |
95% |
|
|
HEAR |
43% |
118% |
|
|
HVT |
53% |
144% |
|
|
HZO |
75% |
204% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
46% |
84% |
177% |
|
SPY |
17% |
30% |
|
Most of the stock selected in this list have high dumping by the insiders. It seems the insiders were wrong and they are usually not wrong.
4. Year-End Loser list.
From 12/10/2020 to 1/10/2021. Include the performances keeping this portfolio for 2 and 3 months. This is the official list for year-end losers. There are other options and they will be used for future selections.
|
Year-End (5 stocks ) |
Return |
Ann % |
Beat SPY |
Beat SPY |
|
Hold period |
1 Month |
1 Month |
2 Months |
3 Months |
|
BCOR |
20% |
224% |
28% |
26% |
|
CEPU |
-10% |
-114% |
-10% |
-17% |
|
EEX |
-8% |
-94% |
-3% |
30% |
|
GANG |
17% |
191% |
38% |
62% |
|
STFC |
9% |
105% |
1% |
22% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
5% |
63% |
11% |
25% |
|
SPY |
3% |
37% |
6% |
6% |
|
Beat SPY |
68% |
|
70% |
298% |
The above result suggests us to hold the stocks for 3 months instead of 1. It could be due to the better performance of GANG from 17% to 62%. SPY has a lot of growth stocks and they suffer from a dip during the third month.
4A. Year-End Loser Secondary list
|
Year-End ( 5 stocks) |
Return |
Ann % |
Beat SPY |
Beat SPY |
|
Hold period |
1 Month |
1 Month |
2 Months |
3 Months |
|
ADES |
-4% |
-47% |
3% |
3% |
|
BMA |
-17% |
-190% |
-14% |
-18% |
|
DXC |
14% |
163% |
3% |
17% |
|
PAM |
-12% |
-140% |
-5% |
-3% |
|
PLCE |
15% |
166% |
68% |
71% |
|
Average |
-1% |
|
12% |
14% |
|
SPY |
3% |
|
6% |
6% |
|
Beat SPY |
-125% |
|
87% |
124% |
The foreign stocks do not perform, but the performance has been improved immensely for holding 3 months.
4B. Year-End Loser Secondary list with US companies only.
|
Year-End ( 2 stocks) |
Return |
Ann % |
Beat SPY |
Beat SPY |
|
Hold period |
1 Month |
1 Month |
2 Months |
3 Months |
|
DXC |
14% |
163% |
3% |
17% |
|
PLCE |
15% |
166% |
68% |
71% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
14% |
164% |
36% |
44% |
|
SPY |
3% |
|
6% |
6% |
|
Beat SPY |
342% |
|
464% |
605% |
This list turns out to have the best performance of the 3 year-end lists.
Book #3: “Best Stocks to buy from August, 2020”
The performance is the returns from 07/28/2020 to 07/01/2021 (close to the next book in the series). The average of the 14 recommended stocks beats SPY (an ETF simulating S&P500 stocks) by 29%. The 25% is unbelievable as SPY has been weighted heavily with a lot of tech stocks such as Apple, Tesla and Microsoft, and they had been increased in value substantially during this period. If you believe they will continue this trend, SPY or any ETF weighted on tech stocks would be beneficial. However, I believe they are peaking and the fall seems inevitable – it is my personal opinion. All 14 selected stocks are winners. Again, dividends and fees have not been included. CMCSA and FDX are big winners profiting from the pandemic. True EY is obtained at the time of evaluation, about a year ago.
|
Symbol |
Sector |
True EY |
Return 07/01/21 |
Ann. Return |
|
ABBV |
Drug |
7% |
16% |
18% |
|
ABT |
Drug |
3% |
16% |
17% |
|
CHE |
Diversified |
4% |
4% |
5% |
|
CMCSA |
Media |
11% |
32% |
35% |
|
FDX |
Transport |
8% |
79% |
85% |
|
GTS |
Health |
N/A |
15% |
16% |
|
JNJ |
Drug |
6% |
12% |
13% |
|
MCK |
Drug |
8% |
24% |
26% |
|
MSFT |
Software |
4% |
34% |
37% |
|
SCHN |
Metal |
10% |
163% |
177% |
|
SMCI |
Computer |
11% |
25% |
27% |
|
UFPI |
Building |
10% |
32% |
34% |
|
UNH |
Health |
9% |
34% |
36% |
|
ZBRA |
Computer |
5% |
95% |
103% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg. |
|
|
42% |
45% |
|
|
|
SPY |
33% |
36% |
|
|
Beat SPY |
|
|
25% |
At one time UFPI was a loser.
Methodology
· ‘Beat SPY by “= (Return – SPY’s return) / (SPY’s return) with adjustments to negative numbers.
· Dividends and fees are not included. Hence, the ratio usually looks better than it actually it.
· Past performances have nothing to do with future performances.
So far, the last two books have performed well with the market conditions.
The performances are for reference only. These incredible performances are not sustainable. Consult your financial advisor before taking any action. The author and the publisher are not liable for any errors.
· Start date usually is the publish date, and end date usually is the publish date of the next book in the series. May add the performance for one year. Dates could be one or two days off due to non-trading days.
· Short-term trades such as Year-End strategy is usually one month duration. May add 2-month and 3-month durations for comparison.
· True EY is the earnings yield considering debts and cash. Compare it to one-year Treasuries and CD which are basically risk free. It is the reciprocal of “EV/EBITDA”. It is obtained from Yahoo!Finance (under Statistics).
· Most figures are rounded up for easy reading, but not in the calculation in “Beat SPY by”.
· Once a while, the performance is not correct due to many uncontrolled events such as delisting a stock (due to bankruptcy, merger…).
· There are older books. However, I cannot get the performances due to the survival bias (i.e. the delisted stocks are no longer in the database).
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