My prediction

Most likely the trade war will be settled for the benefits of both countries. Trump and his political party need a big victory. China will give out many concessions. However, the enforcement of the trade treaties is hard.

If there is a full-fledged trade war, China will suffer a lot in the short term. In the long term, China will be better prepared for the next trade war and China will concentrate more effort on core technologies such as CPU and memory.

As of 2019, China is not ready to say No to us. However, it may in a decade or so. The announcements of “Made in China 2025” and the “One Belt, One Road” are just too early as China is not ready. The trade war could lead to a recession in China and a cold war with the U.S. in the worst case.