A military war with China not justified

·         Many experts say it is not possible to have a single hegemon (“Bai” in Chinese or “one mountain cannot have two tigers”) and it would lead to military war. These experts must receive a lot of money from our defense (offense is the better word) industry.

China has never wanted to be a hegemon at least by their philosophy from her leaders. China has a non-interference policy. It means basically it will not send army to regimes that even she does not agree with. President Xi has repeated this many times.

According to some theory, a war is unavoidable between a rising power and an established power. In our recent history, it was true between Germany and the British Empire. I could not find more convincing examples. Today a full-fledged war between countries that have nuclear weapons could destroy the world, not just between the countries.

·         China has been proven less of an aggressor thru out her long history. She built the Great Wall to stop the nomads from the north. She used royal marriages to reduce conflicts and wars. The Japanese pirates and Japan’s ambitious governors had been giving Chinese coastal cities problems but not the other way round. China was the victim from the eight-nation alliance helping the Brits to push opium to China and WW2. 

·         China does not have a history in colonizing any countries even it had the power like in Zheng Ho’s era. Compared to US with endless wars, most wars were brief and inside Asia. Most wars China involved are not extensive except the Korean War. Before 1600, China was the undisputed superpower in Asia. At the time, China just wanted them to be acknowledged as a big brother via the tribute system which is not a total one-way tribute.

·         Instead, China wants to share her wealth with her neighbors and Africa as evidenced by the “One Belt, One Road” Initiatives (OBOR). OBOR also serves as a second trade route for oil, ores and China’s products in case the sea route is blocked. China depends on trade a lot and hence would like to avoid wars.

·         China can defend herself easily. With Russia on her side, the balance of power is maintained in Asia and it usually means peace. The “Century of Humiliation (from 1839 the first Opium War to 1945 the end of the WW2)” may be forgotten by the next generation who are busy in studying or making money.

·         If North Korea starts a war on South Korea, China may not participate due to the high stakes. But, it does not mean China will not supply assistance and weapons to North Korea. South Korea’s missile defense system would be ineffective to China’s state-of-the-art missiles. That potential war would be localized and brief.

The stake for China is facing US’s formidable military head on. In addition, the united Korea would side with US and China would lose a bargain chip with US. A united Korea would benefit a little for China by reducing financial aids to N. Korea (supplying about 90% energy and 45% food needed by N. Korea at low cost).

·         Chinese are enjoying a better living standard than before. Most Chinese have less desire to reclaim their lost territories.

·         China needs trade to survive more than US. US is one of few countries that can be self-sufficient without any trade. China can get energy and food from other countries instead of from US. However, it will hurt each other without trades.

·         China depends on US to protect the sea trade routes. Hence it does not make sense to fight with your protector.

·         China is surrounded by US military bases (about 15 in Korea and 13 in Japan) plus the Seventh Fleet. Australia, Singapore, Vietnam and Philippines could play the secondary roles for US military presence in the area. It could be a bad move for China to start a war and lose her trading partners.

·         We joined the eight-nation alliance to bankrupt China and fought Chinese in the Korean War. However, we had been friends with China especially in the last 35 years. We should continue to be friends.

·         Americans are tired of the endless wars since WW2. It has damaged our economy. We are horrified by the body bags sent back. These young fallen heroes should enjoy the best time in the life either going to colleges or starting jobs. Most are fighting for the clause they do not understand and to places they do not know.

·         Why should we be global cop and/or the modern Crusader? There are more problems to fix at home such as constant shootings, natural disasters, etc. We have a lot of moral problems to fix too.

·         China and Russia together are too strong for us in both the economy and military.

·         We have more global companies than other countries. It has hurt them even in trade wars and far more in a full-fledged military war. The world’s economy is globally connected. The flooding in Thailand and tsunami in Japan hurt our component supplies.

·         We should treasure the trade in Asia. EU is developing similar products such as passenger jets. South America is financially weak. Africa is primitive. Many Asian countries are growing and should be our best partners.

·         We have helped many authoritarian countries. Are we preaching something and doing just the opposite? China is just one of the authoritarian countries but the human rights have been improved in the last 35 years.

·         Pacific Ocean is a long way from us. It used to be our first imaginable border to defend. With today’s missile capability and submarines, it is no longer true. If there is a nuclear war in Asia even without us, the fallout would affect us.

·         We no longer need to protect our oil route as we are close to energy independent. Leave this job to China as they need the oil route.

·         Our bombing on Middle East makes the folks there angry and desperate. It ignites terrorism in our home land.  They are ineffective in modern weapons particularly jets but they can fight effectively against us via terrorism.

·         Why let the wealthier countries such as Japan and S. Korea protect themselves?

·         Both sides know: Conventional wars would lead to nuclear wars that there is no winner. Both countries have the First Strike and Second Strike capabilities.

Summary

China may not be militarily competitive to US today, but she will. China’s military will be helped by the strong economy. If we do not protect our secrets, more blueprints of our weapons will be stolen. Hopefully the military war will never be started with China. There will be no winner but excessive destruction from today’s deadly weapons including nuclear. It would be far better with a trade war, a cold war and even an arms race to more advanced weapons than a military war.

Most likely and in several decades later China will be strong enough economically and militarily to reclaim some of her lost lands and reunite with Taiwan without shooting a bullet. When that happens, most likely US will not confront China militarily but will help the allies with information, supplies and sea blockages. At the meantime, US benefits in selling these affected allies with jets and advanced weapons.

Any kind of convicts will not be good for both sides. However, it may be triggered by some miscalculations, misunderstandings or diverting attention from some events that they cannot fix.