2016

* No one can predict the future market with a crystal ball. However, you can borrow my time machine which is being fixed. Relax, just a joke.

* As posted many times, 2016 will be a risky market. Commodities esp. oil will come back after the return of the economy. It is a question of when. Again, I will let you know after I fix my time machine.

Personally I maintain 50% cash and will all out if my technical indicator described in my books tells me so.

* In tech sector, security will be the main theme if not already.

* Weight Watcher needs to be watched with your eagle eyes. I may short it (I seldom short) when it goes higher.

* Sears has no future. If I were the management (I was a stock holder long time ago), I would make a complete remodel. First dump all non-profitable merchandise categories such as clothing. JC Penny was a bigger fool by following Sears in many aspects. History did repeat itself. A presentable CEO had no tooth.

* Yahoo!, Why your old systems work better than your 'new, improved systems'?

Happy New Year to all and peace on earth. Talking about peace, I wonder why religions which are supposed to be nice fuel the wars now and past for that long?

Performance of my last book on picking stocks

Performance (3 months from the publish date) of my last book Best Stocks for 2014. Best Stocks for 2016 is available from Amazon.com.

Annualized Return	3 Months	Beat SPY
All	23%	44%
SPY	16%
Short lists:
Conservative	30%	88%
Riskier	39%	144%
Riskiest	-11%	-169%
Small Cap	75%	369%
Dividend	20%	19%
All Around	18%	13%

On the same theme of my last post

Some conventions are not right or not convenient.

* Metric system. To me, we do not adopt it is due to our love on football. "Fumbled at 1.27 meter" does not sound too interesting.

The joke: When we and the Soviet fire the missile at the same time, theirs reaches us earlier due to the no conversions in using the metric system. Of course, it is the slow CPUs in the 50s.

* English's first floor is ground floor and their first floor is our second floor.

* Their date format is "DD/MM/YYYY". Actually for some purposes both are wrong. For keeping track of my tests, I use YYYYMMDD.

* Chinese has a word for 10 thousands. They have 14 billions in population. To us, it is 1.4 billions. Ours is more scientific with a word for every three zeros such as thousand (i.e.1,000), million (i.e. 1,000,000), billion and trillion.

12 noon is not 12 pm

The Chinese restaurant I went to says they open at 12 am. Are they wrong or the world is wrong?

The next hour from 11 am is 12 am, NOT 12 pm. The one who set it up did it totally wrong and no one complains until now. If I were born earlier, I would have corrected it. If I were born here, I would be the president and every one would have a job by now.

The same if I stayed with the Fed (I actually worked for them briefly and I still had the key to the executive rest room to prove it), we would not have this financial mess today.

Or, if I played for the Celtics (I need two more feet), they would not have a losing season.

Or, if I were the couch (I need to have a brain first), the Patriots should've selected to receive on OT this afternoon. I would cover my error by saying we would not give the Jets a better draft pick, so we let them win intentionally.

If I were more humble, I would not have written this stupid post but I see the stupid smile on your face.

Chinese, China and inventions

I came across the following and gladly saved it for ammunition against Chinese bashers.

Chinese did have a dark age from the Opium War (the Brits pushed opium as a nation) to Nixon's lifting up the embargo (a proof how a unified embargo can hurt a country). When the basic survival is food, shelter and basic medical delivery, of course they do not have time for inventions and other improvements for better life.

Uncle Deng should be given a Nobel prize for lifting millions from starving but one to Obama for doing nothing and one economist for theories that do not work. The Nobel prizes seemed to be given to enemies of China: a writer who gave up Chinese citizenship and Dali Lama. It indicates the stupidity of the Nobel Prize committee. If they give me one (a joke), I will throw it to the garbage (but I will keep the money) can as it is totally meaningless and too political. LOL.

---------------------------

I'm wondering what you mean by Invention. If you mean "completely new science" then very little today by any country is "invented" as everything is derived from something else. Does smart bullets today mean invention as the main propellant is still gunpowder? I also wonder if you are differentiating between what "China" has invented and what "Chinese" people have invented because they are two separate distinctions. For example:

*Steven Chu is Chinese but is American received a nobel prize in Cooling Atoms back in 1997.

*Dr. Charles K Kao who holds citizenship in Hong Kong, US and UK is generally considered the father of fiber optics. it was his work in the 1960's - 1970's. Another group of 3 men who a decade or so later commercialized it by solving material issues in manufacturing.

*An Wang - Chinese born american computer scientist in the 1950's. Most notably magnetic pulse transfer controlling device for computer memory and crucial to development of digital information technology. Also notable for the first desktop calculators and first word processors.

*Flossie Wong-Staal - Chinese American scientist and leader in AIDS research. Did the first mapping of HIV genes and helped discover the virus that causes AIDs and the virus for Cancer.

*David S. Lee - developed the first efficient daisywheel printer in 1969.

*Dr. Chien-Shiung Wu - born in China, came to America. Most notably her works are from 1940s to 1950's give or take. Nuclear physicist who studied beta-decay. Worked on the manhattan project and basically a pioneer in separating uranium isotopes and nuclear detection.
Now if you're talking about ONLY from China specifically there are a lot less obviously but you have to take into consideration the Cultural Revolution that plagued China from 1966 to 1976 which effects lasted to at least the 1980's (1 or 2 generations). Basically all engineers, scientists, mathematicians etc. were shunned and killed that didn't tow the party line.

*Tu Youyou - antimarlarial drug found in traditional c hinese medicine in 1972.

*Hon Lik - chinese pharmacist in 2003 invented the first generation electronic cigarette.

*Duanqing Pei - 2012 turning urin samples into brain cells. Instead of using retroviruses to re-program ordinary cells they used vectors which is a breakthrough. Published in Nature Methods journal and hailed by global scientific communities.

*Li Guokun - collaboration with Chinese Academy of Sciences developed a new type of wind power generator using magnetic levitation in 2006.

*Daya Bay Experiment - reported the measurement of a new parameter in particle physics. Named one of the runner-up breakthrough of the year in 2012 by Science Magazine.

*Huang Hongjia - developed coupling wave theory in the field of microwave theory which led to Single-mode optical fiber in 1980.

There are actually a whole lot more for both Chinese inventors and inventors from China only but I think this list is enough to get a good gauge. This isn't to say that China doesn't steal IP but stop telling lies and half-truths to further your narrative.

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The "Chinese haven't invented anything in modern times" is just not true. This has been corrected in various scientific forums and websites yet people still use this as if it's accurate. It is not. Please educate yourself further in this regard so you aren't perpetuating only your narrative.

they are not a great modern society. they are emerging. it's not a crime to be under developed you know? why so much hate and emotion behind it?

Everybody started somewhere. Europe 'stole' from the East (to get out of the dark ages). America 'stole' from Europe (to start its industrial revolution).

btw, to anwser your question...presumably u mean post war...because if there is no time limit, then there is a lot that we take for granted today are Chinese in origin.

Post war: I think, some Rice breeding thingy that improved productivity a lot and benefited mankind, especially those who rely on Rice (so mostly developing countries). someone called "father of hybrid rice". not sexy and I never heard of it until by chance recently. but important enough for mankind, i think, even if not to me personally.

Quality of Facebook workers or just the education system?

Are Facebook folks smart? No. They asked me to select the picture with one tiger before I can post. I did not select the pictures with more than one tiger and they told me I was wrong. They should hire someone with at least a high school diploma or our high school system is producing garbage. Sigh.

On today's financial news

* Why we have the corrections on most economic data from the government? Why not shut up before you have anything concrete to say?

* Are we threatened by Cuba? It is one of the few places I want to go as a tourist. Economic embargo with partners destroys a country.

* If you consider the currency and inflation, most Japanese companies are not doing well.

* Short-term bonds are better compared to long-term bonds as interest will rise.

* What happens to SolarCity when the tax credit is eliminated? I saw my Chinese stock on solar panels evaporated in front of my eyes when the US banned them.

Merry X'mas.
http://bit.ly/1NV2GL0

My bus ride from Boston

With expensive parking fees, it is quite cost effective to commute to the city on Saturdays. On our way back at about 4 pm, the bus was full of Spanish-speaking workers. I bet most if not all are illegals working in the suburb such as our Mall, the hospital and many restaurants. Why illegals? I bet most legals would get welfare instead of working in that shift. If you work, they will take out the freebies such as health care in Mass. They are lazy but not stupid. The illegals do not have this option.

What will happen if the politicians turn the illegals to be legal? There will be nobody doing these jobs. No one in the right mind wants these jobs as it is far better to collect welfare. Why politicians would make this stupidest decision? They want to buy Hispanic votes.

In addition, more politicians side with the welfare recipients. Since 40% of the population do not pay Federal taxes, they have to satisfy their needs in order to buy votes. Representation without taxation is worse than taxation without representation.

That's why our taxes are so high and the good jobs are outsourced as we're no longer competitive. That's why we have a high exodus of the top 1% as they do not care about the entitlements but their taxes. Also, that's why we have the highest exodus of corporate headquarters recently so they can lower or in many cases do not pay their taxes.

When one is allowed in, they can bring their entire family in. The US will become a welfare state. On their first day in the US, they will ask for the direction to the welfare office. If you have an elderly, you can collect a nice salary for taking care of him/her. What a country! Great for the immigrants, bad for most workers and incentive for the rich to give up citizenship.

The middle class who cannot go away is squeezed from both ends.

Tea to lower diabetes?

The following article has been circulated to me in Facebook.

Some are good advices and some are not. Act at your own risk.

To summarize: it is black tea, American ginseng tea and corn soup (with the core).

The following article is in Chinese, use Google Translator and select traditional Chinese.

http://buzzlife.com.tw/article/1448099845

On today's financial news (Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast)

Some news are carried from yesterday.

* Related to my Coconut Theory. It is a bottomless pit. Need to teach Puerto Rico a lesson. At most give them bread to survive, not cake. Otherwise, they will ask for bailout again and again. You cannot cure the addicts by not cutting out their hands.

Don't cry for me Argentina but tangle with me. It has too many 'coconuts'. When folks enjoy life that much, they will not work seriously. Official exchange rate and the street rate are different. Most likely you can double your exchange of your USD in the street.

* As I stated, you can improve the citizens' living standard by providing clean air/eater, enforcing food quality... They are more important than the GNP. However, you get a medal for improving GNP.

* Amazon needs the space ship from Star War. I can give them one in 2xxx. A model has been done and I'm waiting for investment. Let me know if you're interested. Guarantee huge return or total loss. At least a good dream from today to 2xxx.

* Phone payment system is very important now for Apple. Once you get in, you never get out. There are many potential competitors.

* Oil could be bottom now I hope.

* Whitney is a great shorter (he made some blunders too). I recommend CALM in my article against shorters. See who is the winner down the road. I'm patient. This article is not widely read due to not too many folks holding CALM. It is worth the price ($0) on how I find and evaluate stocks. You can ask me a refund ($0) if you do not like the article.

http://bit.ly/1NBvIdc

Calm on Calm

It could be my last Seeking Alpha article for a long while. Why?
- Objective accomplished. Never wrote anything more than two pages in my IT career. English is not my native language.
My English is likely better than your Chinese. smile emoticon

- An investment site read by investors and fund managers. It only took me two hours to write this article.
- Some 'secrets' should be kept to myself. In this case, I have loaded the stock already and hope the herd would move it up for me.
- Back to retirement.
- I have a life too. smile emoticon

Be Calm On Cal-Maine

CALM has a short float of over 50%.It is fundamentally sound.Great profit potential.

All my books

My investing books can be grouped as follows.

·         The Art of Investing. Most of my books including its sequel Themes in Investing are based on. The Kindle version has over 700 pages. It covers most topics in investing.

The alternate combination is Debunk the Myths in Investing and its sequel Investing Strategies: Profitable & Updated. These are the original versions.

·         The following books are in a series: Finding Profitable Stocks, Market Timing and Scoring Stocks (or Modern Security Analysis: Simple & Effective).

·         Books for today’s market: Profit from 2016 Market Crash  and Best Stocks (check current offers).

·         Books on strategies: SuperStocks, Sector Rotation, Momentum, Dividend, Penny & Micro Stock and Retiree.

·         Books for advance beginners: billionaire (perfect gift for recent college graduates and they will thank you when they become billionaires), Investing for Beginners, Profit via ETFs, Buffett, Ideas, Conservative and Top-Down.

·         Miscellaneous. Lessons in Investing. Investing Strategies. Global Economies. Buy Low and Sell High. Buy High and sell Higher. Buffettology. Applied Technical Analysis. Trading Stocks. Fillers. A Nation of No Losers. Several books on travel. New Kindle book: Complete the Art of Investing (highly recommended but no paperback version currently).

·         Concise Editions and Introduction Editions are available at very low prices and are competitive to books of similar sizes (50 pages) and prices ($3 range). 

For paperback & Nook

Search my books with “Tony Pow”. 

My blog

Is 5% unemployment full employment?

Reality and theory drift apart. For the Fed (reality), 5% means 'full employment' and for the mathematicians (theory), it is not.

When you're not collecting unemployment, you're not counted as unemployed. There are many holes in how they define the 5%. If you lose all the benefits including free health care in some states, you are better off to be unemployed.

In Hong Kong, 2% is full employment as their welfare system is not that great. In China where you do not work, you do not eat, it could be close to 0%.

Different yardstick for different countries on health care

As Einstein said, everything is relative. Hong Kong's is great compared to China's and bad compared to the US's.

The exception is Hong Kongers (I believe including tourists too) pay about $15 ($100 Hong Kong dollars) for one hospital stay in public hospitals. The rich folks stay in single rooms in private hospitals and with supposedly better medical delivery. It is fair to me: Basic health care delivery for all and better health care delivery for the rich. An incentive to work hard to be rich.

China's motto: If you do not pay, you die (please die outside our hospital's lobby).

US's motto: As long as you come to emergency room, we treat you even if you're illegal alien

Canada's motto: We will treat you but you have to wait for a month; we will save money if you die before then.

Refugees

Many applied as political refugees but 99.9% were economical refugees. As long as they're not communists, with no serious diseases and have not committed crimes, they should be let in. That's fine as long they will pick up jobs that the able welfare recipients do not want to do. 

A while ago, the sponsors were responsible for the immigrants living expenses for 3 years. Today they can go to the welfare office on day one. Do you let one in with half a million to invest or one to collect welfare on day one?

After seeing the terrible conditions in Syria, the world should help them. We need to have a complete check to limit terrorists from coming in. Despite all the good deeds from religions, it is always the source of wars. We misinterpret and/or mismanage all the good teachings.

BTW. What's wrong with importing the prostitutes as someone argues? They do not collect welfare on day one. They belong to the oldest profession and satisfy a human desire as long they are controlled and do not spread diseases. Just an observation :)

Educated citizens & democracy

Yes, we need educated citizens to vote.

Examples abound. Asia alone: Most democratic countries are corrupt including Philippines (past, present and most likely future). The countries that are not corrupt comparatively are Japan and S. Korea and they all have educated citizens.

The US is in its own category. It is corrupt under the cover. The voters are for themselves. When we have more free loaders (over 40% not paying Federal income tax), they are the majority of the voters.

I call it representation without taxation and it is worse than than taxation without representation. I propose counting them as half a vote and requiring them to show their tax returns in the ballot booth.

Objectives in life

From my book: How to be a billionaire:

We come to this earth with nothing and leave with nothing. Why do we fight for wealth, prestige and power? However, if we do not have the objective for wealth, prestige and power, it is a life without meaning. In addition, money should not be our primary objective in life and happiness/health have to be earned and cannot be bought with money. When you’ve accumulated enough wealth to have a comfortable financial life such as myself, you may want to pursue other objectives in life besides wealth.

I have seen many successful men and women who are not wealthy using financial yardsticks but they are wealthy in having good friends, good families, good health and/or fulfilling their own objectives in life such as helping the poor.

 
Most likely when you’ve accumulated enough wealth for a financially secured life, there are many objectives in life more important than wealth such as happiness and health. I am the living proof. Still not convinced? Check out the wealthy singers, movie stars and athletes. Are most of them really happy with all the broken marriages, drug and alcohol abuse…? I rest my case.