It always has controversy in DC’s memorial monuments. The last one is Maya Lin’s Vietnam Memorial. Now, even the critics at the time admit it is one of the greatest memorial monuments ever if not the greatest. Every day, it has touched many and moved them to tears.
The concept of touching the sky and the land is most likely a Chinese concept and most likely an idea from her parents. The simple concept of including the names of the fallen heroes is genius that their relatives can show off the graver marker in their living room. The granite also cleverly reflects ourselves literally and all the soldiers' names are recorded for ever.
There should be no border in honoring a world-class hero. Is it racist that we did not complain on the Statue of Liberty which was built by French?
To the Chinese bashers: There are no radioactivity elements implanted in the rocks that could kill every one in DC and no modern-day Trojan Horse.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Monday, August 1, 2011
Fixing the economy
US is still rich and powerful. The economy should be easier to fix but we all have to bite the bullet. Bailing out every one would only buy votes for the politicians and will not help the economy in the longer term. Economy affects every one and it should not be a political game. Here are some of my thoughts.
* When GE pays no taxes to US, but to some foreign countries, we've a problem. So are many global companies which should be headquartered in US instead of some foreign countries. We've not done enough to lure them back. At least we need to force them to pay taxes on the profits they made in US.
* The rich should pay their fair share of taxes. If we force them to pay more than their share, they will move else where. This is call the straw that breaks the camel's back or killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.
* Relax environmental enforcement on drilling and let the construction of the pipe line from Canada start. We have more natural gas than God.
* The complicated regulations and high legal expenses force some drug companies to move the research else where. If nothing is being done, I predict China and India will be the countries to produce new drugs in the next decades and we will lose the competitive edge eventually.
* We need to limit the unemployment incentive, the burden of Obamacare... to small businesses.
We have to give the rich incentives to take risk to start business, or they invest else where. Without more investment (whose objective is for profit and it is the same objective we invest in stocks), we do not have more jobs.
* There are many ways to balance the budget.
We need to cut the entitlements (I receive SS and eventually medicare). It is called bite the bullet that the politicians will not do as they want to buy your vote.
We need to encourage the poor to work instead of receiving welfare. Why should they work if work means cutting the housing subsidies, food stamp and free health care.
There are many US jobs are done by illegal aliens. Check who pick your lettuce, or empty your waste basket in your office. The poor should take out those jobs instead of fixing their motor bikes, watching TV all day long, or the teenagers taking care of their babies.
* Hiring more employees for government jobs is the most inefficient way to boost employment.
We cannot afford the two wars (one war costs us 2B a week). Why we need a carrier powered by two nuclear generators is beyond my reasoning.
I'm in IT and now in investing. Hence, I do not know much about social systems, but they're just common sense.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 8/1/11. Updated 8/1/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
* When GE pays no taxes to US, but to some foreign countries, we've a problem. So are many global companies which should be headquartered in US instead of some foreign countries. We've not done enough to lure them back. At least we need to force them to pay taxes on the profits they made in US.
* The rich should pay their fair share of taxes. If we force them to pay more than their share, they will move else where. This is call the straw that breaks the camel's back or killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.
* Relax environmental enforcement on drilling and let the construction of the pipe line from Canada start. We have more natural gas than God.
* The complicated regulations and high legal expenses force some drug companies to move the research else where. If nothing is being done, I predict China and India will be the countries to produce new drugs in the next decades and we will lose the competitive edge eventually.
* We need to limit the unemployment incentive, the burden of Obamacare... to small businesses.
We have to give the rich incentives to take risk to start business, or they invest else where. Without more investment (whose objective is for profit and it is the same objective we invest in stocks), we do not have more jobs.
* There are many ways to balance the budget.
We need to cut the entitlements (I receive SS and eventually medicare). It is called bite the bullet that the politicians will not do as they want to buy your vote.
We need to encourage the poor to work instead of receiving welfare. Why should they work if work means cutting the housing subsidies, food stamp and free health care.
There are many US jobs are done by illegal aliens. Check who pick your lettuce, or empty your waste basket in your office. The poor should take out those jobs instead of fixing their motor bikes, watching TV all day long, or the teenagers taking care of their babies.
* Hiring more employees for government jobs is the most inefficient way to boost employment.
We cannot afford the two wars (one war costs us 2B a week). Why we need a carrier powered by two nuclear generators is beyond my reasoning.
I'm in IT and now in investing. Hence, I do not know much about social systems, but they're just common sense.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 8/1/11. Updated 8/1/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
A slow day in the market
Yesterday, the market lost about 2% and I had bought several stocks at 'bargain' prices (will find out in a month or so whether they're traps or bargains). Here are what I did to kill time, similar to what you're doing at the moment.
* Fishing.
When you do not fish (looking for good stocks to buy), you repair your net (revising better methods to evaluate stocks). Recently I found out the hard way that I really had to use two methods for evaluating stocks: 1. one for stocks I hold for longer than 12 months (for taxable accounts) and 2. one for stocks holding for an average of 4 months (for swing trades). I've about 2 years of real data from my trades to test out the parameters such as expected P/E. You may call it smart data mining or dumb data curve fitting.
* On political systems.
As opposing to popular belief, Canada is communist, US socialist, and China capitalist. It looks funny but is not far from reality. Here is my argument using health care.
Every Canadian has the same free health care (I do not know the availability and the quality) no matter how rich or how poor you're. Hence, you do not need to save and/or work hard to get better health care. This is the biggest fault of communism.
US encourages its citizens to buy health insurance, but provides it free when you're in emergency room, whether you're legal or illegal resident. That's one of the major reasons we have the most inefficient health care system.
In China, you do not pay, you die. Hence, you need to save and work hard. It is great for the rich and powerful, and a powerful way to control population growth :). I'm not saying China is a great country. The fact is there are more folks moving to US legally or illegally to US than to mainland China.
* To respond to a fellow blogger's praises with sarcasm.
I do not deserve all the flattering, but thanks anyway as it makes me feel good. It is the same feeling to hear the flatters from the prostitutes saying how great your performance is (just an observation). Do not be offended by my jokes as I do not take life seriously.
It is too late for me to make bigger bucks and I do not have a desire to do so. My secret weapon is: I do not need big bucks to be happy and my children would have no meaning in life by inheriting money (a great lesson from Buffett).
I do not see myself writing for WSJ (may be WSJunk) beside reading it, but would like to share investing ideas here and there. My work and hobby is developing a holy trail in investing. Many experts have passed same path and few succeed. Some 'succeed' due to dumb luck. This is my theory of a thousand monkeys banging on the keyboards to find good stocks. At least one monkey finds a great stock.
Buffett is very smart and he has a photographic mind. Like most 'mad' professors, he concentrates in works that are important to him. He made 10,000 times more money than us (at least than I), but he cannot be 10,000 smarter than us.
I've many theories how to develop the holy trail in investing but little time/data to test them out. There is a very high possibility that I'll find no such trail before I die, but I'll enjoy spending time in searching for one. I would die with a big smile for doing what I enjoy most, not due to fame and glory but for the chance to try something I've never tried before. It keeps me cheerful and hopeful similar to the days after I bought a lottery ticket and before the winner was announced.
If I do found the holy trail, I'll donate my life-long 'loots' to deserving (most US poor are not) charities (another lesson from Buffett) and win the Nobel Prize (please do not wake me up.) I would win it by saving/giving/working hard and Obama got his by spending. Who deserves it more? Be the judge yourself.
* On China's bullet train crash.
I hope we learn from our tragedies.
As in my previous posts, China sets the priorities wrong. It is great to be #1, but we have to consider many other issues like safety, quality control, image (esp. for China Inc), maintenance, operations, regulations, corruption (when big money involves, there is corruption naturally), pollution… You do not get promoted or get a medal for doing the above, but some could lose his/her job if something goes wrong.
There are so many past examples such as the fires on high-rise buildings, collapsing of bridges and roads... If we never learn, we will never advance. Hope it is a wake up call. If we prepare for the worst to minimize accidents, we should pad our shoulder for jobs well done, even there is no material gain.
To summarize,
A genius always minimizes accidents.
A smart man always fixes after the accidents happen.
An idiot blames the accidents on someone else and never fixes the problem.
* Your reward for your patience in reading all my garbage.
To prove how stupid I'm, I read it two times before I understand it.
In a nutshell, Mr. T defined the least expected events as black swans. It could be the reason for most of the scientific discoveries and also some investors' blunders.
Click here.
If the clicking does not work, try cut and paste.
http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm
* Fishing.
When you do not fish (looking for good stocks to buy), you repair your net (revising better methods to evaluate stocks). Recently I found out the hard way that I really had to use two methods for evaluating stocks: 1. one for stocks I hold for longer than 12 months (for taxable accounts) and 2. one for stocks holding for an average of 4 months (for swing trades). I've about 2 years of real data from my trades to test out the parameters such as expected P/E. You may call it smart data mining or dumb data curve fitting.
* On political systems.
As opposing to popular belief, Canada is communist, US socialist, and China capitalist. It looks funny but is not far from reality. Here is my argument using health care.
Every Canadian has the same free health care (I do not know the availability and the quality) no matter how rich or how poor you're. Hence, you do not need to save and/or work hard to get better health care. This is the biggest fault of communism.
US encourages its citizens to buy health insurance, but provides it free when you're in emergency room, whether you're legal or illegal resident. That's one of the major reasons we have the most inefficient health care system.
In China, you do not pay, you die. Hence, you need to save and work hard. It is great for the rich and powerful, and a powerful way to control population growth :). I'm not saying China is a great country. The fact is there are more folks moving to US legally or illegally to US than to mainland China.
* To respond to a fellow blogger's praises with sarcasm.
I do not deserve all the flattering, but thanks anyway as it makes me feel good. It is the same feeling to hear the flatters from the prostitutes saying how great your performance is (just an observation). Do not be offended by my jokes as I do not take life seriously.
It is too late for me to make bigger bucks and I do not have a desire to do so. My secret weapon is: I do not need big bucks to be happy and my children would have no meaning in life by inheriting money (a great lesson from Buffett).
I do not see myself writing for WSJ (may be WSJunk) beside reading it, but would like to share investing ideas here and there. My work and hobby is developing a holy trail in investing. Many experts have passed same path and few succeed. Some 'succeed' due to dumb luck. This is my theory of a thousand monkeys banging on the keyboards to find good stocks. At least one monkey finds a great stock.
Buffett is very smart and he has a photographic mind. Like most 'mad' professors, he concentrates in works that are important to him. He made 10,000 times more money than us (at least than I), but he cannot be 10,000 smarter than us.
I've many theories how to develop the holy trail in investing but little time/data to test them out. There is a very high possibility that I'll find no such trail before I die, but I'll enjoy spending time in searching for one. I would die with a big smile for doing what I enjoy most, not due to fame and glory but for the chance to try something I've never tried before. It keeps me cheerful and hopeful similar to the days after I bought a lottery ticket and before the winner was announced.
If I do found the holy trail, I'll donate my life-long 'loots' to deserving (most US poor are not) charities (another lesson from Buffett) and win the Nobel Prize (please do not wake me up.) I would win it by saving/giving/working hard and Obama got his by spending. Who deserves it more? Be the judge yourself.
* On China's bullet train crash.
I hope we learn from our tragedies.
As in my previous posts, China sets the priorities wrong. It is great to be #1, but we have to consider many other issues like safety, quality control, image (esp. for China Inc), maintenance, operations, regulations, corruption (when big money involves, there is corruption naturally), pollution… You do not get promoted or get a medal for doing the above, but some could lose his/her job if something goes wrong.
There are so many past examples such as the fires on high-rise buildings, collapsing of bridges and roads... If we never learn, we will never advance. Hope it is a wake up call. If we prepare for the worst to minimize accidents, we should pad our shoulder for jobs well done, even there is no material gain.
To summarize,
A genius always minimizes accidents.
A smart man always fixes after the accidents happen.
An idiot blames the accidents on someone else and never fixes the problem.
* Your reward for your patience in reading all my garbage.
To prove how stupid I'm, I read it two times before I understand it.
In a nutshell, Mr. T defined the least expected events as black swans. It could be the reason for most of the scientific discoveries and also some investors' blunders.
Click here.
If the clicking does not work, try cut and paste.
http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Intangibles in evaluating a stock
A fundamentally-sound company may not move its stock price. I give a score for each stock I evaluate. Some with worst scores have great return while some with excellent scores have worse returns.
However, I still stick with stocks I score high and once a while change my scoring system to reflect the metrics that work in current market conditions. To illustrate, the bottom and early recovery phases of the market cycle favor value rather than momentum.
* I double or triple my stack on stocks with high scores. In longer term, they are consistently better winners from my data.
* Watch out stocks with outrageous metrics like P/E of 5 or less. It could be a big lawsuit pending, expiration of some drugs...
* The technology patent of a tech company cannot be ignored even the company's P/E is high. The recent case is IDCC rising about 40% in 2 days. There is a rumor that Google is buying the company and/or Apple is bidding on it too for their mobile technology.
* The opposite is Netflix and Chipotle. They are over-priced by any measure. However, the shorters are having a tough time.
* It was quite easy to select CISCO over Apple by fundamental data (or Microsoft over Google) in 2007 but now by 2011 it was the reverse. However, the market is acting just the opposite.
* Some events the retail investor just does not know until it happens like ATSC dropped 15 or so % due to losing its second primary customer.
* After a quick run up, TZOO plunged due to missing some negligible earning expectation. It seems to be the original climbing prices had the perfect earning built-in.
* The financial data could be fraudulent or manipulated. Cash flow cannot be easily manipulated. It is a good info whether the company survives but it does not prove to be a good indicator for the performance of the stock price.
* The following are not found or are easily found in financial statements: patents, good wills, market shares, competitions, product margins, management quality, pension obligations, advertising icons...
The conclusion is the fundamentals do not always work: 1. especially in the short term. 2. many metrics are intangible. 3. Market is not rational at least not all the time.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 7/20/11. Updated 7/20/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
However, I still stick with stocks I score high and once a while change my scoring system to reflect the metrics that work in current market conditions. To illustrate, the bottom and early recovery phases of the market cycle favor value rather than momentum.
* I double or triple my stack on stocks with high scores. In longer term, they are consistently better winners from my data.
* Watch out stocks with outrageous metrics like P/E of 5 or less. It could be a big lawsuit pending, expiration of some drugs...
* The technology patent of a tech company cannot be ignored even the company's P/E is high. The recent case is IDCC rising about 40% in 2 days. There is a rumor that Google is buying the company and/or Apple is bidding on it too for their mobile technology.
* The opposite is Netflix and Chipotle. They are over-priced by any measure. However, the shorters are having a tough time.
* It was quite easy to select CISCO over Apple by fundamental data (or Microsoft over Google) in 2007 but now by 2011 it was the reverse. However, the market is acting just the opposite.
* Some events the retail investor just does not know until it happens like ATSC dropped 15 or so % due to losing its second primary customer.
* After a quick run up, TZOO plunged due to missing some negligible earning expectation. It seems to be the original climbing prices had the perfect earning built-in.
* The financial data could be fraudulent or manipulated. Cash flow cannot be easily manipulated. It is a good info whether the company survives but it does not prove to be a good indicator for the performance of the stock price.
* The following are not found or are easily found in financial statements: patents, good wills, market shares, competitions, product margins, management quality, pension obligations, advertising icons...
The conclusion is the fundamentals do not always work: 1. especially in the short term. 2. many metrics are intangible. 3. Market is not rational at least not all the time.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 7/20/11. Updated 7/20/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Why Japan should win the Women's soccer world championship
Glad Japan won the girls’ world soccer championship for the following 5 reasons.
5. US citizens are spoiled. Dumb nationalism is just dumb.
4. Too much misery in Japan. Give them a break!
3. Why US always wants to be #1 all the time. We should behave like a first class citizen. It is not Pearl Harbor as indicated in twitters and the comments of the ignorance.
2. Japanese are shorter, so they have to try harder to be even. They should change the rule on how to break the tie by the average height of the players.
#1 reason. It is God’s decision otherwise the ball would not bump into the pole that many times.
No matter what the outcome was, we all enjoyed a great game with fun and excitement. We would have a better world if we only care to fight for #1 in sports.
5. US citizens are spoiled. Dumb nationalism is just dumb.
4. Too much misery in Japan. Give them a break!
3. Why US always wants to be #1 all the time. We should behave like a first class citizen. It is not Pearl Harbor as indicated in twitters and the comments of the ignorance.
2. Japanese are shorter, so they have to try harder to be even. They should change the rule on how to break the tie by the average height of the players.
#1 reason. It is God’s decision otherwise the ball would not bump into the pole that many times.
No matter what the outcome was, we all enjoyed a great game with fun and excitement. We would have a better world if we only care to fight for #1 in sports.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Low capital gain tax for 2011 and 2012
The long-term capital gain tax (the stocks you have them for over 12 months) could be the lowest in 2010, and continue similar savings in 2011 and 2012. Now it could be the best time to sell these profitable stocks and you can buy them back right away.
If your adjusted income is $67,900 or less for joint return, you're in the 15% bracket in 2010. Then your long-term capital gain tax this year is 0 according to Wikipedia I glanced thru briefly.
Personally I sold big gainers and I virtually payed 0 tax on the gains in 2010. I've the accountants from Yahoo! Group to confirm it. At first I thought my gains would push me to higher tax bracket, so most gains would be taxed higher. However, it does not turn out that way.
My strategy: Sell long-term gainers in 2011 and 2012. Sell losers in 2013 and convert 401K to Roth in 2013. In 2011 and 2012, try not to have any incomes that would move up my tax bracket.
Transfer some profitable stocks to your children (ok to transfer them to me :)) if they can take advantage of this with the no tax rule. Watch out for kiddie tax implication.
You can transfer a limit of $13,000 this year. You and your wife can transfer $13,000 each to each child tax free. If you have more children and grandchildren, you have more to transfer. The limit is on cost basis, so if you bought the stock at $13,000 and now it is $26,000, it is ok to transfer all the stocks. Check the minor clause if your children is under a certain age.
If you are above this income limit, you should still have a break this year. Consult Wikipedia under US income tax for details.
It sounds rosy, but it may not. First, if your transfer money to your children and s/he is a full-time student, his/her tax rate could be the same as yours. Second, if you have a large long term capital gain, the capital gain is not added to your adjusted gross income. Hence you still enjoy the low/no Federal L.T. capital gain. However, it affects the tax in your social security income.
More info from Wikipedia, click here.
Consult your tax lawyer to confirm. Please verify.
-----------
Tax for the rich!
I would like the rich to pay more, but not unfairly. They have only one vote each, so the politicians would give them a hard time. However, we do not want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. We do not to drive them out of the country. We
like to encourage them to invest with reasonable taxes for taking the chances.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 7/20/10. Updated 7/20/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
If your adjusted income is $67,900 or less for joint return, you're in the 15% bracket in 2010. Then your long-term capital gain tax this year is 0 according to Wikipedia I glanced thru briefly.
Personally I sold big gainers and I virtually payed 0 tax on the gains in 2010. I've the accountants from Yahoo! Group to confirm it. At first I thought my gains would push me to higher tax bracket, so most gains would be taxed higher. However, it does not turn out that way.
My strategy: Sell long-term gainers in 2011 and 2012. Sell losers in 2013 and convert 401K to Roth in 2013. In 2011 and 2012, try not to have any incomes that would move up my tax bracket.
Transfer some profitable stocks to your children (ok to transfer them to me :)) if they can take advantage of this with the no tax rule. Watch out for kiddie tax implication.
You can transfer a limit of $13,000 this year. You and your wife can transfer $13,000 each to each child tax free. If you have more children and grandchildren, you have more to transfer. The limit is on cost basis, so if you bought the stock at $13,000 and now it is $26,000, it is ok to transfer all the stocks. Check the minor clause if your children is under a certain age.
If you are above this income limit, you should still have a break this year. Consult Wikipedia under US income tax for details.
It sounds rosy, but it may not. First, if your transfer money to your children and s/he is a full-time student, his/her tax rate could be the same as yours. Second, if you have a large long term capital gain, the capital gain is not added to your adjusted gross income. Hence you still enjoy the low/no Federal L.T. capital gain. However, it affects the tax in your social security income.
More info from Wikipedia, click here.
Consult your tax lawyer to confirm. Please verify.
-----------
Tax for the rich!
I would like the rich to pay more, but not unfairly. They have only one vote each, so the politicians would give them a hard time. However, we do not want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. We do not to drive them out of the country. We
like to encourage them to invest with reasonable taxes for taking the chances.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 7/20/10. Updated 7/20/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Making fun of Bill
I agree that Microsoft is a fundamentally sound company with the huge cash flow from Windows and Office updates. For the last 10 years, they do not have much show for that could be larger than Google and Apple combined. However, the stock is very under priced with all the metrics.
Just for fun. Every box of Windows should include the following:
1. This software could lower your productivity.
I do not know why the old version of Windows just read any of my spreadsheets without hesitation, but not the current ones.
Sometimes we like to control your keyboard. At least the intention is good. At worst, you just reboot and lose your current work. No big deal to us.
2. This software could crash any time.
The old version crashes once a year, and this one once a week. Gates will give you the ignorant folks a new term: progress in reverse.
3. This software could screw up your files.
Do not be too alarmed as you can pay us to fix it and major credits are accepted.
4. Your OS may not be able to bring up.
My 3 year old hit a certain key to crash the system when it was being brought up.
5. This software will upgrade by itself automatically and it will be lengthy. Hence, do not use it for important presentations unless you like your attendants to take a coffee break in the middle of it.
6. For corporate communication, try 1-800-BillGate or 1-800-BadSoftware.
7. To prove the point that a sucker never learns, update our software once every two years so to keep your IT dept busy and your managers to blame some one other than themselves.
Not to mention the bonus money for our managers who use it to stimulate the economy and helps our great country to reduce deficit and balance the budget.
The Federal, state and city employees will gladly point out the reason why they need 10 instead of 1 to do a simple job.
Just for fun. Every box of Windows should include the following:
1. This software could lower your productivity.
I do not know why the old version of Windows just read any of my spreadsheets without hesitation, but not the current ones.
Sometimes we like to control your keyboard. At least the intention is good. At worst, you just reboot and lose your current work. No big deal to us.
2. This software could crash any time.
The old version crashes once a year, and this one once a week. Gates will give you the ignorant folks a new term: progress in reverse.
3. This software could screw up your files.
Do not be too alarmed as you can pay us to fix it and major credits are accepted.
4. Your OS may not be able to bring up.
My 3 year old hit a certain key to crash the system when it was being brought up.
5. This software will upgrade by itself automatically and it will be lengthy. Hence, do not use it for important presentations unless you like your attendants to take a coffee break in the middle of it.
6. For corporate communication, try 1-800-BillGate or 1-800-BadSoftware.
7. To prove the point that a sucker never learns, update our software once every two years so to keep your IT dept busy and your managers to blame some one other than themselves.
Not to mention the bonus money for our managers who use it to stimulate the economy and helps our great country to reduce deficit and balance the budget.
The Federal, state and city employees will gladly point out the reason why they need 10 instead of 1 to do a simple job.
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