Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Lessons from trading in 2019


I made many financial mistakes along with some good decisions in 2019. I have explained on how to avoid some mistakes in my books and I did not follow my preaching.

In the last two months of 2019, I started buying contra ETFs betting the market to go down while the market has been making new heights. The market is financially unsound but technically sound.  Lesson #1: Follow the simplest market timing described in this book. Lesson #2: Never bet against the market on a year before election.

There are always two sides of opposite views on the market. I studied them and believe 2020 could be a disastrous year for the market. No one is sure unless s/he has a time machine. Again follow Lesson #1.

I did well in buying GLD/SLV, OIL/USO and basic materials including IYW and two copper miners. Will unload some copper miners. Will unload OIL/USO when it approaches to $70 per barrel. We need a good economy or some events to drive up the oil price. Lesson #3: Every portfolio should have a small portion in gold (GLD/or similar ETFs, gold coins and ETF for gold miners).

Stay away from Chinese stocks for the entire year. I may buy a contra ETF on Chinese stocks. The trade war and the explosive debts will drive China’s economy down for a few years.

I had 50% profit in one month using my year-end strategy in 2018. From my memory, I made about 100% on YRCW and lost about 30% on another bet on the same stock. Lesson #4: “Year-End Strategy” works at least so far. Lesson #5: Sell the stocks bought using this strategy within 2 months, and hence I should use retirement accounts for this strategy.

I made some money in trading energy stocks that have been beaten badly. Lesson #6: Buy low and sell high. Lesson #7: Buffett’s “Be greedy when everyone is fearful and vice versa” is correct.

There are many ‘great’ traders making millions and losing most. Lesson #8: Avoid big losses by using stops. Lesson #9: Do not speculate and be a turtle investor.

I save the most important lesson for last. If you spend all day long in trading, you do not enjoy life and it is bad for your physical health and mental health. Wish you a healthy and prosperous 2020!

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Fillers for my books


#Filler:  Organic growth
The company grows using its own profits - not from the bank loans and/or from the extra stock offerings. My definition only.

#Filler: Consumer or stock holder
The more you bash the airlines, the more profits the airlines make.

How? The less service they give, the more profits they get. A consumer and an investor have different objectives and viewpoints. Do not ignore the stock just because you do not like the company.

#Filler: Save money on books

Browse books in bookstores and order them on-line via a shared prime account for speedy delivery.

#Filler: Only a sweet dream

My brokerage account showed me I had extra millions. I dreamed of many fancy toys instantly. When I logged off and logged back on, they’re all gone. What a tough life but a sweet dream too short!

#Filler: Twitter account

Should our Constitution takes out the Twitter account from U.S. president?

Do you want to touch the president’s hands when s/he constantly twits in the rest room and the mobile phone has not been cleaned?

#Filler: It is politics

When most if not all Democrats want to impeach while most if not all Republicans do not, it is decided by politics, not by facts.

We’re wasting time for the two parties to argue with each other.  These rich and ‘educated’ folks are paid to make our government a better one, and not for fighting for who is on top.

#Filler: Fix the illegal immigrant problem

Enforce a law to fine the employers who hire the illegals. If there are no jobs, they will not come.

However, who is going to take up the tough and low-paid jobs that welfare recipients do not want? If they come here for jobs and not for making troubles, why not?

#Filler: Are you a genius?

No genius calls him/herself genius.

That is why I do not call myself genius. See the logic. LOL.

#Filler: Dumb program from a dumb company

I selected the suggested flight and entered everything. Then it told me the connection time was too short. Why did they give me this choice in the first place?

#Filler: Another example on how the “supply and demand” works

The hotels close to the port of Montreal charge double on the arrival day of our cruise ship. Avoid this problem by booking early.

My taxi driver charged me double from the airport to my home in the suburb due to returning to the city without passenger. Once you’re cheated, you never want to be cheated again.

#Everyone cheats

My clinic tagged in something I did not recognized in my physical and asked me for another $140. It was supposed to be resolved after the three-way call. I got calls from a collection agency. I called the clinic and I was cut two times for the same call. Finally they said they had not reviewed it. They did tag in phycology evaluation on my wife’s physical that the doctor did not perform. I did not complain as they charged Medicare and not me.

#Filler: Poor next generations

The government borrow excessively and most of us do the same. Our next generations have to pay for our debts. They do not have a voice today. Call us irresponsible.

#Filler: How to end all our wars

If we send the children of our leaders to the front line, we will not have any wars.

The youths should enjoy the best time of their lives and not be sent back in body bags.

#Filler: The other side of a story

The security guard slams the child in a mall or in a school all the time. The other side of the story is the bad behavior of today’s children. The retail stores have to protect themselves as shoplifting by teenagers is quite common. Where were the parents? Education starts at home.

#Filler: Gun control

There are more guns than our population. Control gun slowly and realistically. Start with banning all automatic/semi-automatic weapons and the related accessories and enforcing the eligibility of owning guns.

When our politicians receive campaign money from the NRA, how will they act against their boss?

#Filler: Double standard

How many Saudi citizens were involved in 911? The recent Saudi could buy a gun here and possibly could use th trainer jet as a weapon against us. How is their human rights record? We do nothing against them.
#Filler: The silly Nobel Prize committee

Obama got one for doing nothing and Deng Xiaoping did not get one for saving millions from starving to death.

#Filler: Road blocks to progress

We use privacy to stop facial recognition. The device from Ring has reduced a lot of thefts and possibly crimes. Similar to stem cell research. That’s why China is passing us.