Xiaomi, the Apple killer

Apple is my only recommendation in my book Scoring Stocks published in May 2013. It has been highly profitable since then. Now, I recommend to take some profit it as the rival is coming.

Xiaomi, a Chinese phone maker, will most likely come to the USA in 2015 after conquering several emerging markets including India. Its phone is almost as good as the latest model of iPhone at about half the price. It also has a low-end version priced at about $100 that would set up a standard for entry smart phones.

Xiaomi prices the latest phone model barely above the manufacturing price and makes money in the decreasing component prices. It gains more profit by stretching the model to a longer life.

Apple’s lawyer will prevent its entry that Samsung found out the hard way. For starters, Xiaomi needs to modify the user interface to avoid some of the obvious lawsuits in the USA.

Even if Xiaomi will not enter the US market, it will steal more sales from Apple. Apple has to learn from Cisco. You do not want to make China angry. If they do, they may stop Apple from selling their phones in China. Hence, you may win the battle, but lose the war.

Xiaomi could be one of the companies that would force the mobile phone to become a commodity product.

When the phone becomes a commodity, both companies have to make money in the content. Today Apple depends on iPhone for over 50% of its sales. After mid 2015, Apple stock may face some challenges even without Xiaomi entering the US market. Eventually the smart phones will become a commodity product and they may have to face Xiaomi or other similar companies.

It is one’s opinion and I would face a lot of opposition from the Apple lovers; it is the same when I recommended Apple in May, 2013 when no one wanted to buy Apple’s stock. Buy any stock depending on the potential appreciation (via individual analysis), not on the love of its products, the company or the management.

Here is a current update from Business Insider.

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My primary book is the Art of Investing.  It has the following features:

  How to detect market plunges.

  Many strategies to find profitable stocks.

  My steps in analyzing stocks: Fundamental, Intangible, Qualitative and Technical.

  My unique findings: Pow PE and Pow EY to name a few.

The Kindle version has more than 720 pages (6*9), about the size of three average books. It includes most of my investing ideas plus many ideas from many investing books.

To reduce the price of a printed book, I have a Concise Edition of the Art of Investing. The paperback of most of my books have a free Kindle version (check the current offer), so you have the best of both worlds.

The Art of Investing is a combination of “Debunk the Myths in Investing” and its sequel “Investing Strategies: Profitable and Updated” with minor deletions.

Market outlook on 2015

Brief outlook on 2015 market

For the last few years, most market predictors have their crystal balls broken. It is due to the excessive supply of money that leads to a non-correlation of the economy and the stock market. It cannot last forever. It will correlate again when the money supply is reduced.

2015 will be a tough year to predict. I will predict a gain of 7% if the market does not plunge. As usual, there will be two camps in opposite directions.

Good News

·         The interest rate will start rising. However, 2015 is the year before election and no politicians will risk their chances by raising the interest rate.

·         The market is slightly over-priced.

SPY’s P/E is about 18 vs. the normal 15.

·         The economy is improving slowly.

·         Energy cost is reducing (bad for the energy sector).

·         Most corporations have good profits especially in the first and second quarter.

Bad News

·         Margin debt is in the record high. The market would usually plunge the year after.

·         Interest rate will climb after the mid year of 2015. It will be slowly as mentioned before.

·         The national debts and obligations are high as a percentage of the GDP. If we legalize 4 million illegals, how many will give up their work and collect welfare?

What should we do

I would watch how the above will materialize. The weather man can predict the weather in the next few days better than the next month.

When the market is down, we need to know whether it is a correction or the start of a market plunge. For a correction, you want to buy stocks as in Oct. 15, 2014. For market plunges you want to sell everything. For me, I prefer to ignore corrections these in 2015 as it could be the start of a market plunge.

Most predictions from analysts and fund managers are rosier than they actually are. Accept their ideas that make sense.

Written 12/1/2014.

This is my personal view and I am not responsible and/or liable.
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It leads me to discuss how to detect market plunges.

Here is a link to it.
  http://tonyp4idea.blogspot.com/2013/10/how-to-detect-market-plunges.html

My primary book is the Art of Investing.  It has the following features:

  How to detect market plunges.

  Many strategies to find profitable stocks.

  My steps in analyzing stocks: Fundamental, Intangible, Qualitative and Technical.

  My unique findings: Pow PE and Pow EY to name a few.

The Kindle version has more than 720 pages (6*9), about the size of three average books. It includes most of my investing ideas plus many ideas from many investing books.

To reduce the price of a printed book, I have a Concise Edition of the Art of Investing. The paperback of most of my books have a free Kindle version (check the current offer), so you have the best of both worlds.

The Art of Investing is a combination of “Debunk the Myths in Investing” and its sequel “Investing Strategies: Profitable and Updated” with minor deletions.

Jack Ma

# If Jack can succeed, everyone can #

Jack Ma is a smart man who can control and change his destiny despite all the setbacks and how little he inherited (I'm not talking about his look). A good piece on him was seen on 60 Minutes. The following is a follow-up.


http://cbsn.ws/YBjL4h

China

* I do not know whether they have built the pipeline from Russia to China. It is not that far away. Even with the gas from Russia and all the new nuclear generators on-line, about 70% of electricity in China will still depend on coal in the next 15 years or so.

We have a stupid concept of buying carbon credit. China buys the credit from undeveloped countries such as many in Africa for manufacturing their products.

* Volvo is a safe and a good car that lasts for longer time than most American cars. Most of us buy cars do not consider long-term benefits and safety. My friend after surviving from a head to concrete plunge, he only drives a Volvo for life. Chinese bought Volvo for the only car technologies they have not mastered: the engine and the transmission.

When you open the hood of most cars, you would find many Chinese parts. The myth of "Made in America" is busted

Today's news in SeekingAlpha.com

* The Hong Kong - Shanghai link allows citizens of these cities (or Chinese) to buy stocks in the other exchange. It has been planned for over half a year ironing out many details such as the tax, regulation, currency conversion limit (now no limit)... It will give the Chinese more choices in investing (vs. dumping cash to ghost cities). Eventually all these restrictions should be taken out.

I may have a site to check the difference in price of the same stock in different exchanges if I have time (most likely my time is better spent in sleeping).

* Why we have tariffs, protection...among countries. Let us trade freely and buy from the best of the products produced from any country at the least cost. This is call Free Trade, honey. When we have tariffs for some countries and not for other countries, it is not free trade.

* Non-news. I predict if Obama allows the millions of illegals to be legal, our political system will be a one-party system. Why? We cannot afford millions of new welfare recipients in order to buy votes. If you're having a $10 job and you can get $10 free by not working (including all the medical goodies), are you stupid enough to work? Politicians are short sighted and they think they can fool us all the time.

* My new article on airlines receives a lot of good reviews. It also shows you how I find, evaluate and sell stocks.

http://bit.ly/1zvHYGg

Dear Abby,

It has not been working for the last 20 years, why Abe thinks it will work again?

Random Rant

* My suggestion to punish France: Have a tax on vacation days (after 3 weeks).

* How to use the penalties? Bonus to the bank managements? Without them, we do not have penalties on the first place.

* Jack Ma learns from Napoleon: Conquer your country first with foreign aid (Yahoo!) and then conquer the world and kill your white knight (Yahoo!) and the likes.

* Matching prices is a fool's game. I will set up a company with lower prices (but outrageous shipping cost) and then ask those fools to give me merchandises at these prices.

One reason why Circuit City is no longer with us besides the return with no question asked. I have to find another sucker for the 70" inch TV for the Super Bowl.

* Apple overpays Beat and the management of Beat is on high beat and dance around the fools in Apple (Jobs, please wake up).

Too many news today. I'm tired so will not finish comments on all the news.

* Non-SA news. Obama's immigration 'reform'. Will the new legals collect welfare instead of continuing with the low-wage jobs? Will all the Mexicans flood to the US? Wait and see.

The incredible wedding banquet

How to have a wedding banquet that the entire town will talk about and at the least cost? It is in Burger King and they treat you like a king. All the fries are super sized and the drinks are bottomless. Party favors are included.

Of course, my daughter refused

Randmom Rant

On Greece.

* The freeloaders have to suffer the consequences.

* The biggest joke from the Olympics history: How can a small country afford to host such an event to satisfy their dumb national ego? Answer: Building white elephants so the next generations will pay for their ego and ask the rest of EU to pay for it.

* On the bright side, it could recover better (if they let me). It has a lot of tourist attractions and other industries such as olives and shipping. The government is run now by 1/4 of the previous expenses (my estimate).

Protesting against the inequalities (the government retirees are still collecting the generous pension...) and suffering just lets the steam out. If it is spread out too long and too violently, it will hurt the cash crop (tourists) like Egypt

Random Rant

* I bet the oil prices will be stable and back up to $80-90 range. In the mean time, some ventures such as oil sand and some high-cost drilling are not profitable. Tesla users wonder how much they save in gas comparing how much premium for the car besides. I believe some oil companies are in bargain bin esp. those who can survive. They are winners and losers.

* Airlines are winners. My recent SA article on airlines. I expect very good profits until Q2 next year. I forgot to add "strikes" is a con too.
http://bit.ly/1zvHYGg

* China is in a dilemma. They want to set up an example to lure Taiwan back to the motherland and want HK back to normal. The youths are too naive to fight against their parents.

* Putin seemed to be the master of chess. Now, he lost his Bishop.

* Ireland is a mirage of an economical miracle. No pot of gold.

* Minimum wage is a mirage for sure. Many workers will work for less and have to pass the cost to the customers. More factory jobs will be moved to foreign countries. Let's compare it to a college graduate makes if s/he can find a job.

* I have a post saying "No innovation is the best innovation". Examples abound from the new version of Windows to start to the airbags today (or the problem was there on Day 1). I rest my case.

National debt

Debt is a two-edge sword.

Pros.
1. The stock market has been more than recovered due to the debt or printing money.
2. It causes our currency depreciated (not recently due to EU and Japan are worse). It leads to our debt obligation less (China got the same dollar back but they can buy half a loaf of bread less than before).

Cons.
1. The debt will be passed to the next generations (poor kids & grand kids).
2. If the government is a company that cannot service his debt, it will bankrupt.
3. Our debt (and obligation too and obligation to the 4 million if they're legal) as a percentage of our GDP is too high. We need to raise taxes or borrow more, so we cannot compete with foreign countries

Lawyer, lawyer...

An article on a Chinese restaurant and the lawyer.

http://bit.ly/1z8JiPU

That's how it gives a bad name to the legal profession. Same as the incident to the Korean dry cleaner. The lawyer is the Robin Hood in reverse (most of them are) or he has too much free time. That's why I never want to go to Harvard Law School no matter how hard they beg me to go. :)---

The Billerica location is my favorite restaurant. They score big in price (most important to you), quality (most important to me), speed in serving hot and steaming dishes... No beautiful waitresses, decor and atmosphere! I just eat fast, enjoy the spicy and hot dishes, pay less and leave with a doggy bag (even I do not have a dog):)

China's living standard

There are many ways to improve the living standard besides GDP per capita (listed in my book Myths and may not be included in your book Art) such as:

-improve water and air (discussed here) quality.
-improve food quality
- safety regulations and enforce them.
- more freedom.
...

When the country has enough money to survive and prosper, the next steps are improving the REAL living standard

Unbrella Protest

Glad finally Hong Kong's unrest is over. My observation:

1. Peaceful and no looting. Ferguson, take notice.

2. Cannot argue with your parents, esp. asking for sth that will not be materialized. China will not allow electing HK governor or high officials who will never agree with the central government. Common sense.

3. We all have been young before and try to change the world. Ideal and reality are far apart.

4. The students will hurt most by losing the time to study. They should improve themselves by studying more and would make a difference when their turns come. In reality, most become the 'running dogs' for the government.

5. HK has lost a lot of income esp. from China's tourists. A lot of resentment esp. from small businessmen. When you do not get the support of a good section of the society, you will lose. If they drag longer, the economy would crumble and the students will not have good jobs when they graduate

I replied

I got an email from my potential congressman as follows:

The Supreme Court has ruled that there cannot be a Nativity Scene in the United States’ Capital this Christmas Season. This isn’t for any religious reason. They simply have not been able to find Three Wise Men in the Nation’s Capital. The Search for a Virgin continues. There was no problem, however, finding enough asses to fill the stable.


Tony's reply:

Beg to differ. All congressmen including yourself are wise men if you compare your bank account before your term and after.

You can find a lot of virgins but you've to lower your age requirement or change the definition of a virgin. For definition, borrow the example from Clinton's no smoker policy: As long as you do not exhale, you're a non-smoker. Change the word 'exhale' with many words I can think of but they are not too polite to write them down here - just in case the naive Sister Teresa is reading my blog secretly.

It appears to be a fact that there are more mouths kissing asses than asses available to be kissed. Hence, we really have a shortage of asses

A wife trophy could be bad to you due to your last name

In my first job just after the Vietnam War, every one tried to date my office mate Mia except me. If we married, then her name would be Mia Pow. She would be very popular or very unpopular without showing her beautiful face.

When she has a baby, she will be MamaMia.

Sector rotation

You can make good money by 1. Following the trend. 2. Spotting the bottom.

Now oil could be the bottom or close to it. It is supply and demand. Many oil fields will be close due to profit. So, the oil will have less supply and price will be up.

It could be the opportunity for this decade as illustrated in my book Sector Rotation.

There is no free lunch unless you live in a cave for the last 10 years.

It is quite unfair to the SA authors. If you do not like it, do not access SA and end of story.

Yes, there are some articles that may not be good for your financial health such as 'pump and dump'... similar to the other financial sites. However, SA has far less than its share. Many articles are very good.

Most authors promote themselves and try to sell you something. If the authors depend solely on what SA pays, there will be no articles.

The lesson is you have to think whether the article makes sense and fits your investing requirements. You will not be successful in anything in life if you just follow without doing your own home work.

BTW. The wash sales does not allow you to take the current loss, but allows you to add to the cost basis on your current holding.

My broker charges me $4.95 per trade (after negotiation). Actually one account has many free trades by depositing $50K in that account.

Rant II

* US played her China card against Russia, and recently Russia played her China card against the US. It is time for China to play the China card against both by promoting its currency as the global currency. Confusing?

* Bet on oil stocks excluding drillers and explorers. With this low oil price, nothing is beneficial to drill or explore. Some are really great buys according to the expected P/Es such as PBR (with the risk of nationalization?). According to the performance of my bought stocks, oil (or at least the oil companies) has turned around.

If it stays below $60, this stock portfolio (about 6 stocks) will lose. However, I will not touch them until 2016 or 2017 and do not mention them to my family members (my promise to myself so I'm emotionally detached).

When I bought them, they still went down. Psychologically we need to prepare in buying falling knives. Hope the recent rise is not dead cat bouncing.

All investing ideas are predication (i.e. educated guesses). Do your own work, bet on the money you can afford to lose and have a good sleep. When you lose money based on my suggestion, do not blame me. When you make money, contribute it to my secret retirement fund. That's the joke of the day

Rants

* Still a lot of news on China compared to India and Japan. It shows the muscle of China's economy.

* I believe the oil price will be at $65 by the end of 2015 and $70 or even higher by the end of 2016. It is all based on supply and demand. The supply will be down when many drillers stop drilling and explorers stop exploring. The demand will be higher with the improving economies and increasing global population (more energy consumption from China and India alone). The only unknown factor is shale energy.

* I bet my money where my mouth is. I bought more oil stocks yesterday. I should forget them for a year. Just lucky yesterday and I should be emotionally detached (not blowing my horn here but I need to tell someone except my wife). I did recommend it yesterday or the day before. Do not forget to send me money for my advice. It is better than sex (the joke of the day):)

* China console ban will be lifted. Alibaba and the 30 thieves have to stop the thieves producing the consoles that can play any pirated games. You do not make money on consoles but the games. AMD could be a winner if Alibaba's console uses its CPUs. Alibaba may buy Sony, not Sony's Alibaba movie right.

* Comcast will be hurt by iTV, Sony TV, Chromcast...Basically just use the internet to stream TV shows by-passing the cable box. Not a bright future for cable companies. When two losers merge, there will be STILL two losers as demonstrated by the formula 1 Loser + 1 Loser = 2 Losers. Every kindergarten student should know about that. Time Warner learned it the hard way before by ignoring my other formula: 1 Loser * 1 Winner = 1 Loser.

Min. wage to $15

How much does the average recent college make? I bet it is about $15 per hour. If the min. wage is raised to $15, why should they go to college and have a life time to pay for the college expenses. Unless they want to look for fun via parties, alcohol and drugs and that's why all colleges in Colorado are fully booked.

The min. wage will be raised further as there are more poor folks than the middle class. That's why I propose the your vote depends on how much you paid taxes; if you do not pay any, you cannot vote. Representation without taxation is worse than taxation without representation

Blowing my horn (again and shamelessly)

My Pow EY defined as:

= Expected earning / (per share price - per share cash + per share debt)

Buy last year's losers?

With the same logic, I should dump my winners such as AAL (200% profit). However, I have to check whether the winners will still be winners, or the losers still be losers. BTW, the Dogs of Dow Theory and its derivatives are doing good, but it could be due to the premium on dividend stocks.

As most, I predicted wrongly that interest rate should rise in 2014; it is due to the new chairwoman and the flat economy). Now I predict it will rise by the end of 2015. It will have impact on the market esp. with the record margin debt

Buy oil and forget it for the next two years

Yes, I will only know the short-term direction of oil if I fix my time machine.

However, if we're patient (in 2 years or so), we should see the oil back to and above $70 that will double the prices of many selected oil stocks. If it stays below $50, many prices will go half (but most of the other stocks would be up).

In either case, it cannot be all bad

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I recommended to buy oil when it was at $30 per barrel. It went down to $15 and the rest is history.

Bad police?

Yes, it appears to be a good argument. The police enforces the law. There are some bad apples as in ALL professions. Without them, do you want to walk in the street (general speaking) even in the day time?

IPO and wealth gap

Alibaba is one of many companies that go IPO. Hong Kong is the second city of IPOs after NYC. Most IPOs in HK exchange are Chinese companies.

Yes, the wealth gap is wider but it has been that way for more than a decade.

I bet it is the same as the USA or even wider due to the rising stock market between 2008 and today.

The poor in the US tries to reduce the gap by forcing the politicians (or votes) to raise the min. wage. In the long run, it could hurt the poor more as more jobs will go overseas.

Racist?

Education has to start at home. With the high percent of multi generations of single parents, we do not have a future.

I heard the wrong argument from time to time: The reason of the single-parent families is due to most of the adults are in prison.

Why they're in prison? It is because they do not have a good family education. The arguments come in a circle. I do not want to go further before I would be called a racist.

On China

D. Rockefeller has a nice post on China late last night. I bet not too many read it so I re-post here without asking for permission. The only exception from me is "Modern war is not won by the size of the army, but by missiles and technology" as demonstrated in the Middle East wars. The exception to my exception is Vietnam War.

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No mention of China? I follow what the City of London Corporation invests in and they like China. They are the biggest holders of TWN which seems like Taiwan but has companies doing huge business on the mainland. They hold about a third of all those shares-CEF fund. Lazard is the second largest holder. Since I figure London is the center of the world of finance in the Anglo West and the "L" in LIBOR stands for London I figure they must know something? CEF funds seem to be their preference as they pay out better. China seems to be benefitting from most of what goes on globally since the 70's and has the real economy and lower oil prices means they have more money too.

All the I phones, tablets, PC's, game machines, and everything else come from them not the USA. South Korea is also huge and has a surplus like China. China is building the canal down in Nicaragua which we failed to build for 190 years plus two huge port cities, highways, an international airport and all within five years? Impressive if they pull that off. We might be bombing poor people with goats or whatever but those bombs are taxpayer dollars going POOF! China has the largest army and would win any war against anyone now but they don't have to bomb, maintain hundreds of foreign bases, or spend trillions on Defense, they build canals, highways, ports, cities, so you tell me?

Africa is being modernized by the Chinese not us. We're the "saps" and I think Sun Tzu works and we got flushed in Vietnam and we guard the opium fields in Afghanistan with the USMC?(UN says production is up 7% over last year) China only allows casinos in Macao while we stick them everywhere? We sure didn't used to. We are the largest market for illegal and legal drugs however and my neighbor's kid was on heroin?! Wonder how that stuff gets to MN suburbs from Afghanistan and how many Chinese kids are on heroin. I'll bet not many. They have all our corporations like GE with three research parks and numerous operations. GM, HP, etc. and Walmart-it's just a delivery system for Chinese made goods.

I don't "get it" at all. My sister-in-law is Chinese and told me 35 years ago they would dominate the world economy. Well, now I'm a believer but sad. When I grew up in the 50's Detroit, Youngtown ruled and we had manufacturing, trade unions, a middle class and casinos were only in Las Vegas. Funny I never heard of drugs until the mid 60's but they are all over now.

I see the top London bankers investing in China through back door methods and also in the USA in "control businesses" like Pearson Plc. while controlling interest rates globally etc. We get used like world police while the only real unions are the police and they keep saying how "bad" unions are? Propaganda is running deep. Best paying "jobs" in America are in Washington DC but that's funny as they make nothing, don't grow food, but lie and raise our taxes? Oh to pay for bombing poor idiots with goats you could whack cheap with a sword or rifle? My Chevy was assembled by union workers in Canada like my Chrysler using Asian made parts? Then it was imported to the USA. Yup, in Windsor, Ontario right across from bankrupt Detroit?????? We're getting the shaft and lied too by front boys in DC probably paid off by whoever. China has trillions in surpluses, we have trillions in debts so it's real simple and the big boys must have invested with the folks making the real dough or they wouldn't have opened up Communist China and flushed this country.

I think the British empire decided since we fought so hard against them and are a pain in the butt all we were good for is fighting and made us the global police while the Chinese are good hard workers and easier to control they went with the Chinese to make stuff and they sure invest there. I do know they run a global plan and America or any nation state is not in that "plan" although they might get to "vote" for actors they select ahead.

Big illusion going on in America I think and I've been all over the world in my over 60 years and worked for some of these global corporations but I was just technical. Not all bad I guess and the bankers have been working on a global system they would control for decades so I figure invest as much like they do as you can and Visa and Mastercard are good stocks-money globally. I'm in dollars and related dollar based stuff now until oil bottoms-whenever that happens.(it will-it always does

Tibet

Moving Tibet to the modern world is destroying Dalai Lama's old world when only monks could get an education. This is my blog on Tibet that has over 300 'likes'. It reminds me of my high-school teacher asked me to write 'thank you' letters for the sponsors of poor children in Hong Kong.

http://bit.ly/ODE5Xr

One-child policy

Most developed countries have fewer new-born than the developing countries with China as an exception.

It is a double-edged sword. Now China has fewer folks to support the elderly. When China is richer (no one starves to death now as they did during 1950-1970), China can afford to have a larger population and lessen the restrictions. However, the general concept of the one-child policy should be maintained. With the limited resources per capita, China cannot support a large population.

Excessive printing of money

The market behavior has not been normal due to the excessive printing of money. We have a non-correlation between the economy and the stock market. It will correlate again.

As Einstein said "everything is relative". Our currency is strong relative to Russia, Japan, Euro... Our economy has been boosted by shale energy.

Glad the stock market is doing great, but I do not have the illusion that it will continue for ever. The higher we climb, the steeper and faster we'll fall.

Selling one millionth book

Have a higher chance to hit the biggest lottery than selling the one millionth of my books. In any case, money is just money. Happy New Year!

Writing books is a challenge to me as I've not written anything more than 2 pages in my entire career as a programmer. My English must be better than your Chinese! However, it really has helped me to be a better investor. Killing time is great when the market is too risky.

Start with yourself,

In my culture, you need to manage well yourself, then your spouse, then the family, then the kingdom and then everything under the sun. Mrs. Clinton obviously failed in managing her husband.

Go away in May

The best time to invest is Dec. 15 to Jan. 15 by statistics.

I tested the Go Away in May and did not find it is predictive for the last 10 years. Will test it again; or the theory does not work any more when more folks follow.

Year-end winners and year-end losers

Check out my book The Art of Investing (720 pages from amazon). The following is from the book.

You may want to start buying the year's winners in Oct. or so (from my memory) as the fund managers trying to window dress their portfolios.

You may want to start buying the year's losers in early Dec.

In either case, ensure you're buying quality stocks (via fundamental analysis) and stocks not at their peaks (again via fundamental analysis).

Stock market: US, China and Russia

* US stocks. Depend on the interest rate esp. we're having record-high margin debts. It looks like the rate will start to rise in mid year but very slowly. So, we should have a decent sailing unless some unexpected events occur. I would use my chart described in my book to decide whether I should switch to cash.

* Chinese stocks are valued by judging the low P/E as a group. I prefer large Chinese companies only as there are too many frauds. FXI is not a bad one to start.

* Russia has the worst storm. It does not look good this year. However, the problem (besides the low oil price) can be reversed by withdrawing its conquest; Japan, take notes.