The current "Best stocks for 2024" is available from Amazon.com.

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Past Performances

Management Summary

If the sales of this book series were based on past performances, I should have sold many books, but obviously not.

In 2023, my book beat the market (RSP, similar to SPY but unweighted) by 290% with 8 recommended stocks. The sub lists (Momentum, Year-End and Shorts) all beat the market (RSP or SH for shorts). Even in a poor year for the market in 2022, the primary recommended list is still positive and beat the RSP by a good margin.

Performances of the primary lists of my last six books in this series. There could be minor errors due to rounding, entry errors and limited time in checking .

Book	Stocks	Return³	Ann.	Beat RSP by¹
Best stocks to buy for 2023	8	36%	36%	290%
Best stocks to buy for 2022	10⁶	4%	4%	153%⁷
Best Stocks to buy as of July, 2021⁴	8	5%	13%	487%
Best Stocks for 2021 2^nd Edition	10	42%⁴	52%	220%
Best Stocks for 2021	4	29%	44%	118%
Best Stocks to Buy from Aug, 2020	14	45%	45%	3%⁵

Avg.	9	31%	38%	184%²

¹“Beat RSP by” does not include commissions, dividends and other fees. RSP is a better yardstick of the market than the weighted SPY.

²If you buy all stocks recommended in the primary lists, you should have an annualized return of about 32% beating RSP by a good margin.

³Most performances for books published around 12/15 start on 12/15 and end on 12/1 the next year. The exception is 2023 with an ending date of 12/20.

⁴Performance: July 15, 2021 to Dec. 1, 2021.

⁵Initially I used SPY and this book beat SPY by 25% (now only 3% with RSP).

⁶USAK has not been shown in my database.

⁷The performance for 2022 should be better. USAK buy price is $17.74 and the last price as of 9/14/,2022 was $31.71, a huge gain of 79%. Some stocks could be delisted, acquired or merged.

No one can predict the future performance of his or her selected stocks. Based on the last performances of the last six books in this series, the chance of success of my selection is good for this book, but it is not guaranteed. Consult your financial advisor before taking any actions.

More details on the performances of these books including sub lists will follow.

Disclaimer. The following is for reference and education only, and I am not liable for any errors. Past performances have nothing to do with future performance especially in this irrational market. There will be round-off errors and/or input errors. Some dates could be a few days off most likely due to trade dates. Performances do not include dividends, commissions and other fees.

Last book in the series: “Best Stocks to Buy for 2023”

Start date: 12/15/2022.

End date: 12/15/2023 for the primary list.

One month for all the short-term sub lists (i.e. 1/17/2023, as 1/25/2023 is not a trading day).

Summary:

List (# of stocks)	Return	Annualized	Beat RSP or SH¹
Primary list (8)	36%	36%	290%
Momentum (4)	30%	330%	654%
Short (2)	3%	38%	244%¹
Year End (2)	10%	112%	156%

¹Compare to SH for shorting, a contra ETF for SPY instead of RSP. Short performance should be less than the actual – for accuracy I should have used the sell price (i.e. Profit / Sell Price).

Details

Primary list’s holding period is for long-term(1 year). This book is several days later than usual (due to vacation), and hence I use 12/15/2023 as the end date.

Symbol (8)	Return
BCBP	-29%
CCRN	-22%
CEIX	37%
OTTR	38%
SMCI	272%
STLD	22%
ULH	-24%
XOM	-4%




Average	36%
RSP	9%
Beat RSP by	290%

4 winners and 4 losers.

This selection beats the market (RSP) by a good margin. Although I have had consistent performances beating the market so far in these books, it could not be sustainable. In addition, past performances have nothing to do with the future.

I prefer all my selected stocks that would have small profits like beating the market by 5%. How many ETFs, mutual funds and hedge funds (after the hefty fees) can beat the market by 5%?

The top performer and the chief contributor is SMCI. Partly it is due to AI (Artificial Intelligence). It should rank similarly with NVDA and AMD in providing computer hardware for AI. If you have it, use trailing stops to protect your profits. I prefer to beat the index by 10% without a major contributor.

Short-term lists

There are three short-term sub lists: Momentum, Short and Year-End. These lists are short-term, and hence I use one month after as the end dates. I included 2 months and 3 months for whether we should hold for one more month.

Start date: 12/15/2022. End date: 01/17/2023, 2/15/23 for 2 months and 3/15/2023 for 3 months. I recommend holding them for 1 month.

Momentum (4 stocks)

Symbol	1 M	Ann.	2 M	Ann.	3 M	Ann.
ACLS	23%	257%	56%	328%	50%	202%
NINE	48%	528%	4%	21%	-46%	-187%
NR	21%	234%	11%	65%	1%	2%
TDW	27%	299%	42%	250%	22%	88%


Average	30%	330%	28%	166%	6%	26%
RSP	4%	44%	7%	41%	-3%	-12%
Beat RSP by	654%		304%		310%

This time is quite good. In this case, holding one month is better than two months, just opposite in performance compared to the previous book.

Short selling betting the stocks to go down (2 stocks).

Short selling is not recommended particularly for beginners due to the extra risk. I do not recommend holding the stocks for more than 1 month in this sub list. You need to monitor them weekly or even daily. Close the shorts when they are far outside the range you specify.

Symbol	1 M	Ann.	2 M	Ann.	3 M	Ann.
FREY	3%	29%	14%	83%	34%	138%
MVIS	4%	47%	-12%	-73%	-11%	92%



Average	3%	38%	1%	5%	23%	92%
SH	-2%	-27%	-6%	-35%	1%	2%
Beat SH by	244%		115%		3,867%

For example, the market is up by 44% on an annualized basis, so the shorting without analysis should be -44%, and The positive annualized return of 38% is quite good. For the same reason, I use SH, a contra ETF on SPY, instead of RSP (as I could not find a contra ETF for RSP). My return should be worse than it appears: I used the Buy Price instead of Sell Price in calculation for convenience.

The market is moving downwards and that is why shorting is great. I do not recommend holding too long and one turnover stock could bring down the entire portfolio. It is one of the top returns for all my lists in all 5 books. Do not expect it to be consistent.

Sub list: Year-End

Symbol	1 M	Ann.	2 M	Ann.	3 M	Ann.
BZH	3%	28%	8%	47%	-1%	-3%
COMM	18%	196%	12%	69%	-18%	-73%




Average	10%	112%	10%	58%	-9%	-38%
RSP	4%	44%	7%	41%	-3%	-12%
Beat RSP by	156%		41%		-205%

Book #1: “Best Stocks to Buy for 2022”

Start date: 12/15/2021.

End date: 12/01/2022 for the primary list.

End date: 03/20/2022 (market timing determined the date) for the re-recommended list as we should use market timing especially for stocks held over a year.

One month for all the short-term sub lists (i.e. 1/18/2022).

Summary:

List (# of stocks)	Return	Annualized	Beat RSP
Primary list (8)	4%	4%	153%
Re-recommended (6)	8%	29%	474%
Momentum (5)	9%	94%	4,475%
Short (6)	32%	341%	15,965%
Year End (5)	3%	32%	1,590%

Details

Primary list’s holding period is for long-term(1 year). I used 11 months, so I have time to publish the new book that will be published on 12/15/2022 or a few days after.

Symbol (11)	Return	Annualized
ADES	-54%	-56%
AOSL	-34%	-35%
BLDR	-18%	-19%
BZH	-37%	-39%
DVN	73%	76%
MLI	19%	20%
MTDR	81%	84%
NUE	40%	41%
SCHN	-30%	-31%
UFPI	-5%	-5%
USAK	See below

Average	4%	4%
RSP	-6%	-7%
Beat RSP by	153%

4 winners (actually 5 if including USAK) and 6 losers.

The performance should be better if we included the recommended USAK. This has not been shown in my historical database that has a survival bias. It was either been delisted, acquired or privatized. The recommended price as of 12/15/21 was $17.74 and the last price (09/14/2022) was $31.71 gaining 79% and annualized to 105%.

From Yahoo!Finance: “USA Truck, Inc. (NASDAQ:USAK) today announced the completion of its previously announced sale to DB Schenker, one of the world's leading logistics service providers.

Under the terms of the sale, each issued and outstanding share of USA Truck common stock converted into the right to receive $31.72 in cash. As a result of the completion of the sale, USA Truck's common stock ceased trading on the NASDAQ Global Select Market prior to market open today …”

I recommended market timing in the book. If you followed the recommended market timing, you should have left the market on March 20, 2022 and on that day the return is 12% and annualized to 47% while RSP was -2% (beating RSP by 700% in my rough calculation). For simplicity, I do not calculate the gain to returning to the market using the same market timer. It demonstrates how important market timing is.

Re Recommended (6 stocks)

These stocks have been recommended in my previous books, and recommended again in my last book. The current book does not contain this list.

Symbol	Return	Ann.	Return	Ann.
	3/20/22		12/1/22
BG	25%	97%	12%	12%
HZO	-21%	-81%	-44%	-46%
MLI	7%	27%	19%	20%
NUE	32%	121%	38%	40%
SCHN	3%	11%	-31%	-33%
UFPI	0%	0%	-5%	-5%


Average	8%		-2%
RSP	-6%		-7%
Beat RSP by	474%		73%

I recommend you exit these stocks as the market timer described told us to exit on 3/20/22. Their holding period of this sub list is about 15 months already.

Short-term lists

There are three short-term sub lists: Momentum, Short and Year-End. These lists are short-term, and hence I use one month after as the end dates. I included 2 months for whether we should hold for one more month.

Start date: 12/15/2021. End date: 01/18/2022.

Momentum (5 stocks)

Symbol	Return 1 M	Ann.	Ret. 2 M	Ann	12/1/2022
ARCB	-14%	-150%	-16%	-92%	-25%
FRG	-7%	-80%	-12%	-67%	-51%
MRO	28%	303%	36%	210%	99%
MUR	19%	204%	24%	140%	73%
RFP	18%	192%	-8%	-46%	61%

Average	9%	94%	5%	29%	31%
RSP	0%	-2%	-2%	-11%	-6%
Beat RSP by	4,475%		366%		466%

This time is quite good. In this case, holding one month is better than two months, just opposite in performance compared to the previous book. Actually, holding to 12/1/2022 is quite impressive too. MRO and MUR, the top winners, are both in the petroleum sector while REP is in the paper sector.

Short selling betting the stocks to go down (6 stocks).

Symbol	Return 1 M	Ann.	Ret. 2 M	Ann	12/1/2022
BKKT	62%	665%	39%	229%	87%
EOSE	34%	363%	59%	345%	87%
FFIE	-10%	-1055	-1%	-8%	93%
LIDR	41%	442%	38%	224%	83%
NTRA	34%	369%	25%	145%	56%
SMFR	29%	3125	24%	140%	92%


Average	32%	341%	30%	179%	83%
RSP	0%	-2%	-2%	-11%	-6%
Beat RSP by	15.965%		1,739%		1,414%

Sub list: Year-End

I do not recommend holding the stocks for more than 1 month.

Symbol	Return 1 M	Ann.	Ret. 2 M	Ann	12/1/2022
BDSI	See below
CODX	2%	21%	-17%	-102%	-63%
GPN	15%	160%	12%	73%	-19%
SLQT	-12%	-134%	-67%	-395%	-92%
STRA	1%	12%	-5%	-28%	40%
VRTX	9%	101%	11%	62%	52%


Average	3%	32%	-13%	-78%	-16%
RSP	0%	-2%	-2%	-11%	-6%
Beat RSP by	1.590%		-630%		-399%

From the above, holding the stocks in this sub list for 1 month in this portfolio is better than holding them two months.

BDSI was delisted (acquired or merged). On March, 22, 2022, it had a stock price of $5.59. The recommended price is $2.59 gaining 116% and annualized to 436%. I cannot find the prices one month and two months after the recommendation.

From Yahoo!Finance:

“BioDelivery Gains on Buyout Deal: Shares of BioDelivery BDSI surged after it announced a merger agreement with Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. COLL whereby the latter will purchase all outstanding shares of BDSI for $5.60 per share in an all-cash transaction. The transaction represents a 54% premium to BDSI stock’s closing price of $3.64 on Feb 11, 2022, and a 65% premium to the 30 trading days volume-weighted average price of $3.40. The transaction is expected to close late in the ongoing quarter.”

Book #2: “Best Stocks to Buy for July, 2021”

Start date: 07/15/2021. End date: 12/01/2021.

Summary:

List (# of stocks)	Return	Annualized	Beat RSP
Primary list (8)	5%	13%	487%
Re-recommended (4)	22%	57%	2,510%
Momentum (2)	12%	137%	265%
Short (3)	11%	128%	241%
Inflation hedge (5)	-5%	-13%	-705%
Risky (3)	45%	117%	5,275%

Details

Primary list

Symbol (8)	Return	Annualized
ATEN	34%	91%
DKS	16%	42%
HIMX	-30%	-79%
JEF	10%	28%
MPB	11%	30%
MT	-14%	-36%
OPY	8%	21%
VSTO	2%	7%

Average	5%	13%
RSP	1%
Beat RSP by	487%

6 winners and 2 losers. Both losers are foreign companies: HIMX (Taiwan) and MT (Luxembourg). Will avoid foreign countries in the future.

Sub list of the previous recommendations.

Re Recommended (4 stocks)

These stocks have been recommended in my previous books.

Symbol	Return	Ann.
DSK	16%	42%
GTS	52%	137%
JEF	10%	28%
OPY	8%	21%


Average	22%	57%
RSP	1%	2%
Beat RSP by	2,510%

This is fantastic and this sub list will be continued in this book. It seems the winners keep on winning.

Short-term lists

There are two bonus lists: Momentum and Short. These lists are short-term, and hence I use one month after as the end dates. I included 2 months for whether we should hold for one more month.

The short-terms lists may not be appropriate depending on when you buy this book.

Start date: 07/15/2021. End date: 08/15/2021. I also included returns for 2 months.

Momentum (2 stocks)

Symbol	Return 1 M	Ann.	Ret. 2 M	Ann
CLAR	-3%	-30%	-2%	-13%
CROX	27%	303%	33%	193%


Average	12%	137%	15%	90%
RSP	3%	37%	3%	17%
Beat RSP by	265%		440%

This time is quite good, but not in the previous book. In this case, holding two months is better than one month in “Best RSP by”.

Short selling betting the stocks to go down (3 stocks).

Short selling is not recommended particularly for beginners due to the extra risk.

Symbol	Return 1 M	Ann.	Ret. 2 M	Ann
CCL	-4%	-44%	-6%	-33%
NCLH	-1%	-8%	-3%	-15%
MILE	38%	435%	45%	264%

Average	11%	128%	12%	72%
RSP	3%	37%	2%	17%
Beat RSP by	241%		330%

CCL and NCLN are cruise liners and this sector did not perform well in this period. For diversification, you should only trade one stock in this sector.

Sub list to hedge inflation

Commodity (5)	Return	Ann.
GLD	-3%	-8%
IYM	-1%	-3%
SLV	-17%	-41%
USO	-4%	-11%
XLP	-1%	-4%

Average	-5%	-13%
RSP	1%	2%
Beat RSP by	-705%

This list does not perform even though we had high inflation. It is due to excessive printing of money that makes stocks (as opposed to commodities) more attractive. However, I still recommend a small portion of your portfolio invested in this group. This is the only loser in this specific book.

Sub list of risky stocks

Commodity (3)	Return	Ann.
EVC	16%	43%
NUE	10%	26%
YELL	108%	283%

Average	45%	117%
RSP	1%	2%
Beat RSP by	5,275%

It turns out this list has the best performing in this book. Nothing risked, nothing gained. When the market is risky, do not bet on this list. I had YELL in my account at one time and it was stopped out. Be careful on using stop orders on volatile and low volume stocks.

Book #3: “Best Stocks for 2021 2^nd Edition”

Start date: 02/08/2021 (the publish date). End date: 12/01/2021.

Summary:

List (# of stocks)	Return	Annualized	Beat RSP
Primary list (10)	42%	52%	220%
Momentum (7)	-3%	-35%	-170%
Short (3)	28%	335%	573%

Details:

As of 7/1/2021, CTB has been delisted and most likely it was acquired. The price on the recommended date is $35 and the price on 6/17/2021 is 40.12, and it is a good winner in this group. Thus, the actual performance should be better than the following table. From my last update on 4/24/2021, it returned 44% and 217% annualized.

Symbol	Return	Annualized
BG	14%	17%
CBNK	84%	103%
CTB	N/A	N/A
CUBI	117%	144%
HMST	20%	-24%
JEF	40%	50%
MLI	45%	55%
OPY	27%	34%
TPVG	22%	27%
UVSP	9%	11%

Average	42%	52%
RSP	10%	16%
Beat RSP by	220%

Short-term lists

End date: 03/10/2021 (1 month) and 04/10/2021 (2 months).

Momentum (7 stocks)

Symbol	Return	Ann.
ATGE	-6%	-68%
ATRS	-11%	-134%
CMRE	15%	182%
REGI	-26%	-318%
RIO	0%	-1%
SPWH	0%	-1%
WIRE	8%	96%

Average	-3%	-35%
RSP	4%	-50%
Beat RSP by	-170%

Short selling betting the stocks to go down (3 stocks).

Symbol	Return	Ann.
HYLN	16%	191%
NEXT	2%	332%
RMO	40%	482%

Average	28%	335%
RSP	4%	50%
Beat RSP by	573%

Book #4: “Best Stocks for 2021”

Start Date: 12/10/2020. End Date: 12/01/2021.

Year-End lists are short-term, and the End Date is 01/10/2021. I provide 2^nd month and 3^rd month holding to determine what is a better holding period for the current selection.

Summary:

List (# of stocks)	Return	Annualized	Beat RSP
Primary list (4)	29%	52%	118%
Primary list without GLD (3)	39%	71%
Secondary list (6)	46%	84%
Year-End list (5)	5%
Secondary list for Year-End (5)	-1%
Secondary list without foreign countries (2)	14%

Details

1. Primary list.

Primary List (4)	Return	Annualized	Beat RSP
DSK	110%	113%
ESGR	13%	13%
GLD	-3%	-4%
OTTR	54%	56%

Average	43%	44%	118%
RSP	20%

2. Primary list without GLD.

Primary List (stocks = 3)	Return	Annualized	Beat RSP
DSK	110%	113%
ESGR	13%	13%
OTTR	54%	56%

Average	59%	61%	196%
RSP	20%

GLD is a hedge for inflation, and it should not be included in the primary list, but I did.

3. Secondary list.

Secondary List (stocks = 5)	Return	Annualized	Beat RSP
BCC	43%	44%
GPI	57%	59%
HEAR	23%	23%
HVT	13%	13%
HZO	69%	70%

Average	41%	42%	105%
RSP	20%	20%

Most of the stock selected in this sub list have high dumping by the insiders.

4. Year-End Loser list.

From 12/10/2020 to 1/10/2021. Include the performances keeping this portfolio for 2 and 3 months. I use the old SPY as the yardstick without changing it to RSP for saving my time, and they should be quite similar.

Year-End (5 )	Return	Ann %
Hold period	1 Month	1 Month	2 Months	3 Months
BCOR	20%	224%	28%	26%
CEPU	-10%	-114%	-10%	-17%
EEX	-8%	-94%	-3%	30%
GANG	17%	191%	38%	62%
STFC	9%	105%	1%	22%

Average	5%	63%	11%	25%
SPY	3%	37%	6%	6%
Beat SPY	68%		70%	298%

The above result suggests us to hold the stocks for 3 months instead of 1. It could be due to the better performance of GANG from 17% to 62%.

4A. Year-End Loser Secondary list

Year-End ( 5 stocks)	Return	Ann %	Beat SPY	Beat SPY
Hold period	1 Month	1 Month	2 Months	3 Months
ADES	-4%	-47%	3%	3%
BMA	-17%	-190%	-14%	-18%
DXC	14%	163%	3%	17%
PAM	-12%	-140%	-5%	-3%
PLCE	15%	166%	68%	71%
Average	-1%		12%	14%
SPY	3%		6%	6%
Beat SPY	-125%		87%	124%

It indicates that holding 3 months for this sub list is better in performance. The foreign stocks do not perform (will avoid in future books), but the performance has improved immensely for holding for 3 months.

4B. Year-End Loser Secondary list with US companies only.

Year-End ( 2 stocks)	Return	Ann %	Beat SPY	Beat SPY
Hold period	1 Month	1 Month	2 Months	3 Months
DXC	14%	163%	3%	17%
PLCE	15%	166%	68%	71%

Average	14%	164%	36%	44%
SPY	3%		6%	6%
Beat SPY	342%		464%	605%

This list turns out to have the best performance among the three year-end lists.

Book #5: “Best Stocks to buy from August, 2020”

The performance is the returns from 07/28/2020 to 07/28/2021 for about 1 year. All 14 selected stocks are winners. Again, dividends and fees have not been included. CMCSA and FDX are big winners profiting from the pandemic. True EY is obtained at the time of evaluation, about a year ago.

Symbol	Sector	True EY	Return 07/28/21	Ann. Return
ABBV	Drug	7%	23%	23%
ABT	Drug	3%	21%	21%
CHE	Diversified	4%	0%	0%
CMCSA	Media	11%	34%	34%

FDX	Transport	8%	69%	69%
GTS	Health	N/A	23%	23%
JNJ	Drug	6%	17%	17%
MCK	Drug	8%	33%	33%
MSFT	Software	4%	42%	42%
SCHN	Metal	10%	171%	171%
SMCI	Computer	11%	27%	27%
UFPI	Building	10%	29%	29%
UNH	Health	9%	36%	36%
ZBRA	Computer	5%	101%	101%

Avg.			45%	45%
		RSP	43%	43%
	Beat RSP			3%

At one time UFPI was a loser.

It did not beat the yardstick RSP by a wide margin. However, 43% is quite unsustainable in the future. Initially I used SPY and it beat SPY by 25% and now only 3% with RSP.

Methodology

· ‘Beat RSP by “= (Return – RSP’s return) / RSPY’s return) with adjustments to negative numbers.

· Commissions, dividends and fees are not included. Hence, my performance ratios usually look better than they actually are.

· Past performances have nothing to do with future performances.

So far, the last two books have performed well with the market conditions.

The performances are for reference only. These incredible performances are not sustainable. Consult your financial advisor before taking any action. The author and the publisher are not liable for any errors.

· Start date usually is the publish date, and end date usually is the publish date of the next book in the series or one year later for the primary lists. Dates could be one or two days off due to non-trading days.

· Short-term trades such as Year-End strategy is usually having one month duration.

· True EY is the earnings yield considering debts and cash. Compare it to one-year Treasuries and CDs which are basically risk free. It is the reciprocal of “EV/EBITDA”. It is obtained from Yahoo!Finance (under Statistics).

· Most figures are rounded up for easy reading, but not in the calculation in “Beat RSP by”.

· Once in a while, the performance is not correct due to many uncontrolled events such as delisting a stock (due to bankruptcy, merger…).

· I cannot get the performances of some stocks due to the survival bias (i.e. the delisted stocks are no longer in the database) such as Cooper Tire.

· From 12/2021 on, only one book such as “Best Stock for 2022” will be published each year due to low demand.

TonyP4Idea

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

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